Quick key extracts from recent (post-Covid) IMF reports regarding social welfare. This should give a sense how the IMF views social welfare NOW and why we have space (and the urgent need) to expand welfare to deal with the #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and key #IMFNow reform

(1/7)
Zambia 2021

"Key elements of the authorities’ reform agenda aim to re-establish fiscal sustainability...towards GREATER INVESTMENT IN HEALTH AND EDUCATION AND THE DELIVERY OF MORE SOCIAL BENEFITS"

(2/7)
Lebanon 2022

"Lebanon’s economic program would need...TO INVEST IN CRITICALLY-NEEDED SOCIAL SPENDING TO SUPPORT THE PEOPLE OF LEBANON"

(3/7)
Ecuador 2021

"The authorities should redouble efforts to reach families in the lowest income groups
...
providing greater access to quality education and health"

IMF had social safety net expansion as a condition too

(4/7)
Argentina 2022

"MAKE ROOM FOR HIGHER SOCIAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING as well as the higher formula-mandated pension outlays."

(5/7)
Suriname 2022

"increase the size of cash transfer"

IMF also criticizes the "the slippage of social safety net spending in 2021"

(6/7)
Sri Lanka 2022 (Article IV 2021)

"Social safety nets should be strengthened, by increasing spending, widening coverage, and
improving targeting"

The IMF's own report for SL asks for INCREASED spending and wider coverage.

#IMFNow #SriLankaEconomicCrisis

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More from @ChayuDamsinghe

Apr 7
A short thread on "hyperinflation" - which Sri Lanka is NOT facing - and how we can avoid it.

(1/6)

#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow
Hyperinflation isn't an exact term, but the most useful definitions are of inflation that keeps rising faster and faster.

Eg- 50% monthly increase in prices in successive months without really stopping.

Our equivalent rise is closer to 2-3%, very different.

(2/6)
Hyperinflation is if a Rs. 100 loaf of bread in Dec 21, is 150 in Jan 22, 225 in Feb, 337.5 in Mar, ~ 500 in Apr etc - leading to the Dec 22 price being ~13000!

We are clearly far away from it being that bad.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Apr 6
Here's a thread of my threads on the economy so it's accessible easily.

Will keep updating this as I go on
On making mistakes and oversimplifications (part of previous thread, but important on its own too.

Read 11 tweets
Apr 6
Let me explain why interest rates moving up, at this stage, is very good news.

#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow

(1/15)
First - rates themselves. You'll hear a lot of different types of rates, but rates move together mostly - so can think of 1 rate. Essentially, it's the rate at which you'll get money from a bank if you save or the rate at which you'll have to pay loan interest back.

(2/15)
So interest rates were kept low for a while now, and we started moving up late last year. Low rates leads to easy loans for people and companies, more money in the economy, and more consumption.

(3/15)
Read 16 tweets
Apr 5
I'm going to be advocating for and explaining some contentious economic points in the days to come re #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and #IMFNow so to be open and clear, this is about what I'm trying to achieve, why I'm trying to achieve it, and what my principles here are.

(1/25)
What I'm trying to achieve here is simple.

Get as many people as possible aware of what's happening economically and what's needed to recover, and help as many people as possible, understand a pretty gatekept and unintuitive field: economics.

(2/25)
I'll be focusing on the crisis at hand to do this, and providing explanations, stories, narratives in order to improve this knowledge and understanding.

Because econ IS a complicated topic (and twitter has limits), these explanations are all oversimplifications

(3/25)
Read 25 tweets
Apr 5
Let me try and explain this as best as I can.

SL has almost always had a negative balance between what we get as dollar income and what we give as dollar expenses.

We've broadly met this balance through debt.

#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLanka #IMFNow

(1/12)
So to improve from where we are now (just 300mn in reserves) we have to either
1. Increase income
2. Reduce expenses
3. Get more debt

(2/12)
We can increase income by bringing more tourists, encouraging more remittances, and selling more exports.

Other than fixing the broken remittance markets, the rest take time. Tourism will recover, but how soon in this crisis is a question?

(3/12)
Read 13 tweets
Apr 5
මං එක ආර්ථිකවේදියෙක් විතරයි. ඒත්, මේ වගේ ආර්ථික අර්බුද මීට කලින් ඕන තරම් රට වල වෙලා තියනවා. ඒ අනුව ලංකාව ගොඩ ගන්න නම්, මේ පිළිවෙලට ක්‍රියා කරොත් හරි 👇.

#GoHomeRajapakshas #පන්නමු කියන එක හරි, හැබැයි වැඩේ කරේ නැත්තන්, බඩගින්නේ තමයි.

#SriLankaEconomicCrisis

(1/14)
එක දවසක් වත් බල බල ඉන්නෙ නැතුව:

1. වහාම පොලී අනුපාත වැඩි කරන්න
2. වහාම රටේ ණය කල් තියලා ප්‍රතිව්‍යුහගත කරන්න පටන්ගන්න
3. වහාම IMF එක්ක කතා පටන්ගන්න
4. වහාම බැංකු පද්ධතියේ ඩොලර් මහා බැංකුවට පවරාගැනීම නවත්තන්න

(2/14)
මේ 4, එක දවසකින් පටන් ගන්න පුළුවන්. මේ 4 කෙරුවොත්, light කපන එක, තෙල් හිඟය, ගෑස් හිඟය වහාම අඩු කරන්න පටන් ගන්න පුළුවන්.

ඒක කරන්න අවශ්‍ය ඕනෑම දේශපාලන වෙනසක් කරන්න, හැබැයි පරක්කු වුණොත් light නෑ, තෙල් නෑ, කෑම නෑ.

(3/14)
Read 12 tweets

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