Quick key extracts from recent (post-Covid) IMF reports regarding social welfare. This should give a sense how the IMF views social welfare NOW and why we have space (and the urgent need) to expand welfare to deal with the #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and key #IMFNow reform
(1/7)
Zambia 2021
"Key elements of the authorities’ reform agenda aim to re-establish fiscal sustainability...towards GREATER INVESTMENT IN HEALTH AND EDUCATION AND THE DELIVERY OF MORE SOCIAL BENEFITS"
(2/7)
Lebanon 2022
"Lebanon’s economic program would need...TO INVEST IN CRITICALLY-NEEDED SOCIAL SPENDING TO SUPPORT THE PEOPLE OF LEBANON"
(3/7)
Ecuador 2021
"The authorities should redouble efforts to reach families in the lowest income groups
...
providing greater access to quality education and health"
IMF had social safety net expansion as a condition too
(4/7)
Argentina 2022
"MAKE ROOM FOR HIGHER SOCIAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING as well as the higher formula-mandated pension outlays."
(5/7)
Suriname 2022
"increase the size of cash transfer"
IMF also criticizes the "the slippage of social safety net spending in 2021"
(6/7)
Sri Lanka 2022 (Article IV 2021)
"Social safety nets should be strengthened, by increasing spending, widening coverage, and
improving targeting"
The IMF's own report for SL asks for INCREASED spending and wider coverage.
Hyperinflation isn't an exact term, but the most useful definitions are of inflation that keeps rising faster and faster.
Eg- 50% monthly increase in prices in successive months without really stopping.
Our equivalent rise is closer to 2-3%, very different.
(2/6)
Hyperinflation is if a Rs. 100 loaf of bread in Dec 21, is 150 in Jan 22, 225 in Feb, 337.5 in Mar, ~ 500 in Apr etc - leading to the Dec 22 price being ~13000!
First - rates themselves. You'll hear a lot of different types of rates, but rates move together mostly - so can think of 1 rate. Essentially, it's the rate at which you'll get money from a bank if you save or the rate at which you'll have to pay loan interest back.
(2/15)
So interest rates were kept low for a while now, and we started moving up late last year. Low rates leads to easy loans for people and companies, more money in the economy, and more consumption.
I'm going to be advocating for and explaining some contentious economic points in the days to come re #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and #IMFNow so to be open and clear, this is about what I'm trying to achieve, why I'm trying to achieve it, and what my principles here are.
(1/25)
What I'm trying to achieve here is simple.
Get as many people as possible aware of what's happening economically and what's needed to recover, and help as many people as possible, understand a pretty gatekept and unintuitive field: economics.
(2/25)
I'll be focusing on the crisis at hand to do this, and providing explanations, stories, narratives in order to improve this knowledge and understanding.
Because econ IS a complicated topic (and twitter has limits), these explanations are all oversimplifications