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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
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Apr 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1. Unconfirmed report Ukrainian forces took out the pontoon bridge in #Snyorivka NNE of #Kherson over #Inhulets River. If true it protects the Ua forces rear from Russian forces as they fall back west. There are other small bridges downstream at #Barativka and Halanivka but
2. my reporting has that area likely under Ua control at #Trudolubivka. If the Russian forces in the NE don't begin to fall back on the dam and bridge at Nova Kakhovka soon, they could find themselves trapped on the
3. bank of the Dnieper. Based on other reports, I make the Russian force that could be trapped at three BTGs. Once Nova Kakhovka is liberated, two of the four strategic objectives that I believe were the Russian military objectives, as oppose to Putin's lust for genocide,
4. will be defeated. Plus the capture of a huge Russian force will be the kind of defeat that can put more pressure on the MOD to remove Putin. The longer Putin delays falling back, the more likely he is turned over to Den Haag.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Apr 6
1. I don't generally trust @nytmike but feel a need to address his hearsay reporting. If his reporting is accurate and Merrick Garland actually thinks that the @POTUS has no right to know of the status of an investigation into an attempted coup, that is still ongoing, as AG he
2. has violated his oath to uphold the Constitution. A coup can implicate military action. Among the groups that attacked the Capitol were paramilitary organizations. The Attorney General is not in the chain of command and has a duty to advise the Whitehouse so that the Pentagon
3. can be advised and defend the threat. If he and @FGI Wray have taken upon themselves to function as the military command, both should be shown the door without delay. And if @JoeBiden wants to know how to manage the DOJ he needs to talk to somebody who knows how to do it.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Apr 4
1. IMO it's important to not just accuse Russia of war crimes. That claim misses the fact that Putin announced his specific intent to destroy the Ukrainian nation. They deported children. That constitutes genocide and the ICJ is one court with clear jurisdiction and has it under
2. the Genocide Convention. The ICJ binds Russia and can charge Putin et al with both genocide and agressive war. There is no official or diplomatic immunity. So although, Russia is committing war crimes it is also engaged in genocide and for that Putin, Lavrov, Peskov
3. and Shoigu should end their lives in a cell. But the scope of targets is much broader. The Russian commanders, propagandists, Duma, Moscow prelate and diplomats can all be charged and convicted of agressive war and genocide. We need to make an example of the Russia state
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Mar 30
1. Based on my assessment before the attack (that goes back to 2014 when I first gamed it) I think this position is Russia's Fort Apache. The Alamo. Bastogne. Stalingrad. You can pick one. The principal strategic objective worth spending the Oligarchs money was to get water for
2. stolen beach front in Crimea. Putin's diseased mind added his Nazi desire for genocide that they allowed but IMO the deal was water for the Oligarchs and the ship yard at Mykolaiv for the military. With dreams of shipyard lost they're now going to fall back to defend this.
3. For the rout to begin a front must be opened, not just to mercifully relieve Mariupol, but to show the Russian force along Azov they're going to be cut off. So Russia is doing what I predicted.

This is a relief corridor I would try to open to break the encirclement.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Mar 30
1. I saw these reports several hours ago.

"Residents of Kherson send a photo of equipment, which, according to them, left the city today and is moving towards Nikolaev along the road along the Dnieper estuary."
2. I'm 12 hours behind Ukraine so I wake when the sun is heading down. It's easy to tell the time there. It's the time here, but am and pm are switched. Now it's 5:07 am Wednesday in Ukraine. I just checked the reports and I see little evidence these reports are accurate
3. that a sizeable force is headed towards Mykolaiv, one of my original three main strategic objections I believed the Russian state sought in this conflict. So where did they go? You may have noticed a photo of what looked like Russians in a boat preparing to destroy the bridge
Read 11 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Mar 29
1. When the Kremlin reports it's moving forces out of certain areas and then attacks them, it employs a subtle form of psychological warfare to create a sense of hopelessness. If Ukraine's reaction to fake claims of re-deployment is to attack, Moscow will change its tactics.
2. Ukraine's best chance of survival is to destroy the Russian army and air force's ability to conduct operations. Ukraine has willing and capable forces to do it, but needs the very best weapons. We should be supplying artillery, tanks & anti-aircraft weapons including weapons
3. capable of shooting down cruise missiles. I think the A-10s make sense especially if we have decided to phase them out. Imagine that Russian column at Mariupol with A-10s cruising the roads with the Gau turning the tanks and APCs into burning hulks? Arm Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Mar 28
1. I remember when I was in my second stint at professional acting school in NYC. After HB Studio in 1973 studied with the great director Nikos Psacharopoulos at the Circle in the Square Theatre on Broadway. 1977-8. There was a running joke that all my scene study
2. pieces were scenes that seemed to involve some degree of threats of violence towards women. I never asked anyone to be my scene partner or even chose the scenes. I was honored to do scenes with the great actors who asked me to do the work they chose with them. I was honored.
3. They were professionals and that's the profession we chose. The scenes in class never actually involved physical violence. But the theatre to be art has to dig into the soul and open up places a normal person would run from. Could you cry on cue six times a week?
Read 4 tweets

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