Hyperinflation isn't an exact term, but the most useful definitions are of inflation that keeps rising faster and faster.
Eg- 50% monthly increase in prices in successive months without really stopping.
Our equivalent rise is closer to 2-3%, very different.
(2/6)
Hyperinflation is if a Rs. 100 loaf of bread in Dec 21, is 150 in Jan 22, 225 in Feb, 337.5 in Mar, ~ 500 in Apr etc - leading to the Dec 22 price being ~13000!
We are clearly far away from it being that bad.
(3/6)
But what causes hyperinflation? The answer is actually easy - every country that has had hyperinflation has had a single common factor.
Printing money more more and keeping interest rates low, even after inflation starts to rise.
(4/6)
Hyperinflation sucks. It kills so many businesses, creates massive unemployment, makes life extremely difficult with insane shortages AND insane prices.
(5/6)
So we need to stop printing money, stop keeping rates low now that inflation is rising - and take these steps fast.
1 part of this has begun (rate increases), but now the money printing has to stop. I'm broadly confident it will.
(6/6)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
First - rates themselves. You'll hear a lot of different types of rates, but rates move together mostly - so can think of 1 rate. Essentially, it's the rate at which you'll get money from a bank if you save or the rate at which you'll have to pay loan interest back.
(2/15)
So interest rates were kept low for a while now, and we started moving up late last year. Low rates leads to easy loans for people and companies, more money in the economy, and more consumption.
Quick key extracts from recent (post-Covid) IMF reports regarding social welfare. This should give a sense how the IMF views social welfare NOW and why we have space (and the urgent need) to expand welfare to deal with the #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and key #IMFNow reform
(1/7)
Zambia 2021
"Key elements of the authorities’ reform agenda aim to re-establish fiscal sustainability...towards GREATER INVESTMENT IN HEALTH AND EDUCATION AND THE DELIVERY OF MORE SOCIAL BENEFITS"
(2/7)
Lebanon 2022
"Lebanon’s economic program would need...TO INVEST IN CRITICALLY-NEEDED SOCIAL SPENDING TO SUPPORT THE PEOPLE OF LEBANON"
I'm going to be advocating for and explaining some contentious economic points in the days to come re #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and #IMFNow so to be open and clear, this is about what I'm trying to achieve, why I'm trying to achieve it, and what my principles here are.
(1/25)
What I'm trying to achieve here is simple.
Get as many people as possible aware of what's happening economically and what's needed to recover, and help as many people as possible, understand a pretty gatekept and unintuitive field: economics.
(2/25)
I'll be focusing on the crisis at hand to do this, and providing explanations, stories, narratives in order to improve this knowledge and understanding.
Because econ IS a complicated topic (and twitter has limits), these explanations are all oversimplifications