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🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼

@Jkylebass

Sep 1

Chat GPT’s LLM gave an outright false answer to an important question tonight. This interaction is an important reminder that AI output shouldn’t be treated as truth. Was Chat GPT’s answer politically motivated or directed by its chief philosopher? : 🧵 @elonmusk

Question: What would be the potential ramifications of a U.S. military attack on mexican cartel leadership might be on mexican soil?

Answer: A U.S. military strike against cartel leadership inside Mexico would be unprecedented and extraordinarily consequential. The ramifications would span diplomatic, legal, security, and domestic political arenas:

⸻

1. U.S.–Mexico Diplomatic Fallout
•Violation of sovereignty: Mexico would likely view such an action as a blatant breach of its sovereignty, similar to how Pakistan reacted after the U.S. raid on Bin Laden.
•Collapse of cooperation: Bilateral efforts on trade, migration, and security (USMCA trade pact, border enforcement, counter-narcotics programs) could be severely damaged.
•Rise in anti-American sentiment: Nationalist backlash inside Mexico could destabilize its politics, with Mexican leaders under pressure to distance themselves from Washington.

⸻

2. International Law and Norm Precedent
•Question of legality: Unless done with Mexican consent, such a strike would likely be seen as a violation of international law (UN Charter’s prohibition on use of force in another sovereign state).
•Global precedent: Other countries might justify cross-border strikes on “non-state actors” within another country, weakening international norms.

⸻

3. Security and Retaliation Risks
•Cartel retaliation: Cartels could escalate violence against U.S. officials, citizens, or businesses in Mexico—or even across the border.
•Potential spillover: Armed responses might target U.S. consulates, oil & gas assets, or American tourists in Mexico.
•Border violence: Escalation at the U.S.-Mexico border, including attacks on law enforcement or infrastructure, could follow.

⸻

4. Domestic U.S. Political Ramifications
•Polarization: Some Americans would see it as decisive action against cartels; others would denounce it as reckless and unlawful.
•Military precedent: It would expand the scope of U.S. “war on terror”-style actions into the Western Hemisphere, potentially opening the door for broader interventionism.
•Congressional challenges: Legal authority (AUMF, War Powers Act) would be contested unless the President had prior authorization.

⸻

5. Mexican Political & Social Consequences
•Destabilization of Mexico: An external strike could undermine Mexico’s institutions, empowering cartels that exploit nationalist anger.
•Shift in alliances: Mexico could deepen ties with powers like China or Russia to counter U.S. military pressure.
•Weakening of rule of law: If Mexico is seen as unable to control its territory, it could encourage calls for more radical U.S. interventions—or spark internal unrest.

⸻

6. U.S.–Latin America & Global Implications
•Strained hemispheric relations: Other Latin American countries may condemn U.S. “imperialism,” complicating regional cooperation.
•Global blowback: If perceived as unilateral aggression, it could undermine U.S. credibility in criticizing Russia, China, or others for territorial violations.

⸻

✅ Bottom line:
A U.S. military strike on cartel leaders inside Mexico could eliminate specific high-value targets, but it would also risk severely damaging U.S.–Mexico relations, destabilizing Mexican politics, and triggering cartel retaliation. It would mark a major escalation—comparable in impact to drone strikes in Pakistan or Yemen, but magnified because it involves America’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner.

Would you like me to also sketch out possible scenarios (best-case, middle, and worst-case outcomes) to show how this could play out over the short- and long-term?

My second Question: I’m surprised that Chat GPT’s answer didn’t include any discussion of the Mexican Cartels being designated as Foreign Terror Organizations (FTOs). Why is that? Why can’t we attack Terrorists?

Answer: That’s a sharp observation — and you’re right that the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation is the missing piece in this debate. Let me explain why it matters, and why I didn’t bring it up in the first answer:

⸻

1. Current Status of Mexican Cartels
•Not designated as FTOs (yet): As of now, U.S. law enforcement treats Mexican cartels as Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs), not FTOs.
•Legal consequences of FTO status: If designated, providing material support to cartels would carry much harsher penalties, and U.S. counterterrorism authorities (including the military) could be more easily applied against them.

⸻

2. Why the FTO Question Is Politically Explosive
•U.S.–Mexico sovereignty: The Mexican government has strongly opposed any FTO designation, warning it would justify U.S. military action on their soil.
•Diplomatic red line: For Mexico, it’s not just semantics—calling cartels “terrorists” implies their state is “harboring terrorists,” which could invite unilateral U.S. strikes.

⸻

3. “Why Not Attack Terrorists?”

If the U.S. did designate cartels as FTOs:
•Legal framework: The U.S. could apply the same counterterrorism authorities used against al-Qaeda or ISIS. This means targeted strikes, financial sanctions, and possibly detention under war-like powers.
•Operational precedent: It would make military action easier to justify politically inside the U.S., especially if framed as protecting Americans from fentanyl deaths or cartel violence.
•International blowback: But unlike al-Qaeda or ISIS, the cartels operate in a friendly neighbor state with which the U.S. has deep economic and social ties. Using FTO logic against them risks collapsing bilateral cooperation.

⸻

4. Why I Didn’t Mention It in the First Answer

Because FTO designation hasn’t actually happened, I framed the consequences around a hypothetical U.S. strike today, under current law and political context. Right now, the U.S. would be carrying out a strike against criminal groups inside a sovereign partner nation — without the FTO framework.

But if Congress or the White House moved to designate cartels as FTOs, the calculus would shift dramatically:
•The U.S. would have a stronger domestic legal basis for strikes.
•Mexico would almost certainly see it as a casus belli-level provocation.

⸻

✅ Bottom line:
Calling cartels “terrorists” isn’t just labeling — it unlocks an entirely different set of U.S. tools (and obligations). But it also risks tearing apart U.S.–Mexico relations, inviting retaliation, and international condemnation. That’s why successive administrations have flirted with the idea (especially after high-profile fentanyl deaths in the U.S.) but pulled back at the brink.

⸻

Would you like me to draft a scenario comparison: how a strike would look under the current TCO framework vs. if cartels were formally designated as FTOs? That might highlight the stakes more clearly.

Read 5 tweets

🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼

@Jkylebass

Dec 28, 2024

For the security of the United States, @tiktok_us and its controlling algorithm MUST be in the hands of a U.S. company. TikTok US does $12 billion in revenue and it’s rumored to have bids north of $50 billion. Matt Pottinger (former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor) 🧵

has filed his own Amicus Brief with the Supreme Court on the issues around TikTok. One terrible ‘tell’ of the Chinese Communist Party’s control of the Trojan horse algorithm is the fact that they forced TikTok US to stop divulging its data immediately after the hearing in 2/5

2023 of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing’s ability to broadcast , control, and even call to action (as was proven by TikTok’s I’ll-fated plea issued to all users to call their congressmen to avoid the forced sale) must be stopped at all costs. 3/5

Read 5 tweets

🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼

@Jkylebass

Dec 27, 2024

‼️ Award-winning Australian journalist and author, @SharriMarkson , breaks the story that President Biden CENSORED U.S. intelligence analysts and scientists on the origin of COVID-19. ‘US President Joe Biden’s 90-day probe into the origins of Covid-19 censored the input of 🧵

intelligence agency scientists who concluded the virus was most likely genetically engineered.’ Markson was one of the first to research and report about the behind-the-scenes activities of U.S. authorities in her groundbreaking book ‘What Really Happened in Wuhan’. 2/5

3/5theaustralian.com.au/world/us-intel…

Read 5 tweets

🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼

@Jkylebass

Dec 7, 2024

🚨 China 🇨🇳 has an epic reveal to be exposed between now and January 19th. A reverse Pascal’s Wager…whereby #TikTok either must be sold to a U.S. company (plenty of suitors have shown keen interest) OR it will be shut down and wiped out.. 🧵

A wipeout happens if the Chinese Communist Party won’t allow the algorithm out of their hands. TikTok USA has approximately $12B of revenue annually and is worth a minimum of $50 billion in a sale. If you are a shareholder in Bytedance, a sale is certainly their

fiduciary responsibility.
BUT…this digital Trojan horse is used by the Chinese Communist Party as a thought programming tool and a Chinese propaganda distribution network within the U.S.

Read 5 tweets

🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼

@Jkylebass

Nov 19, 2024

https://twitter.com/jkylebass/status/1503022116677079040

I believe World War III began the moment Putin invaded Ukraine. My belief is rooted in the idea that there are no off-ramps, there isn’t a solution that won’t melt down (think Munich Agreement 1938), and Putin has told his story about the rat he cornered in his kitchen 🧵

https://twitter.com/jkylebass/status/1503022116677079040

as a boy. Putin told President Bush (43) a story during his administration. Putin told Bush that he cornered the biggest he had ever seen in his kitchen. Putin moved in for the kill and when he did, the rat lunged at Putin and bit him in the neck…barely missing his

Carotid artery. Putin then smiled at our President and said, “Since that moment, I’ve always wanted to be that rat.” The chances of a tactical nuclear ☢️ weapon being used is no longer zero…in fact it’s now a very real proposition. We have Russia 🇷🇺 / Ukraine 🇺🇦,

Read 4 tweets

🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼

@Jkylebass

Sep 7, 2024

🚨 United States issues dire warning to U.S. businesses that operate in Hong Kong 🚨 in the press release below the U.S. State Department issued a stark warning to U.S. businesses about the serious risks to their operations and activities in Hong Kong. 🇭🇰 🧵

state.gov/hong-kong-busi…

If you have personal or corporate business in Hong Kong, get out while you still can. It’s been obvious for many years now after the implementation (6/30/20)of their disastrous ‘National Security Law’ which supplanted a thriving capitalistic democracy under English Law

Read 4 tweets

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