“This symposium employs established social science theory to frame and place into comparative perspective the case of Belarusian mass mobilization that began in August 2020.” @GwendolynSasse@oonuchtandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/n
“I develop a theory based on the case of the 2010-2011 crackdown in Belarus…[and] show that this crackdown was followed by a sharp decline in protest that particularly affected socio-economic protest” @sashadevotandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 4/n
“During moments of nationwide mass mobilization, what distinguishes the towns and cities that rise in the first week from those that do not see protest? … what drives mobilization in early-rising localities.” @emm_mateotandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 5/n
“Media, then, appear to have served not merely as aggregators of and conduits for social processes generated elsewhere, but as the producers of social and political force in their own right.” @samagreenetandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 6/n
“discuss three articles focusing on the origins of the protests, the role of social media platforms and the strategies and results of state repression.” #graemerobertsontandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 10/n
“This commentary on Belarus’ 2020 uprising discusses the symposium’s contributions to understanding public opinion, protest, and regime crisis in countries like Belarus, and the case of Belarus itself.” @brynrosenfeldtandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 11/n
2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022.
Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.
3) Zaluzhny is a patriot and is committed 2 being part of the team & Zelensky wants him in the fold, just in a different role. You might not agree what role but that is not up to you.
Ukraine’s allies also want Zaluzhny in the fold. More on that to come.
Shame @TorontoStar publishes such uninformed a-empirical navel grazing about what is & is not „rational.” See exert👇by some who has never studied Ukraine or the region properly. 1) If it is a war of attrition it is certainly also 1 that Russia cannot win.
2) Reminder in a democracy what citizens wantmatters - 80%+ of Ukrainians = vehemently opposed to ANY territorial concessions as @MOBILISEproject data show
3) But to be clear not only does popular will matter in a democracy normatively & de jure, it also should be a major concern of any serious (be it realist or ratchoice) analysts when suggesting a likely war game outcome.
Understanding human capital in a democracy 1 also understands limits of possible & probably actions actors - the analysts purport to know - can make.
On the 9th day of new Ukrainian Christmas
@MOBILISEproject
#poliscinerds gave to me
9 main news sources
8/10 civilian resistance
7 citizen facts
6 language facts
5 years of financial data
4 priorities
3 leaders
2 preferences
1 support 4 democracy
MOBILISE PROJECT PANEL DATA
Nationally Representative Survey
Collected by KIIS
CATI mode N= 1,200 - 2,000
Margin of error is no greater than 3.3% for 50%+
All data nationally representative of the 18+ population
All data weighted to the population
What media do Ukrainians consume for political news?
The main story here is that TV viewership has gone down and significantly whilst internet use for new has gone up from 64% of those using the internet for news in 2019 to 90% in 2023.
Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted?
“The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address.
Small 🧵
1
Umerov was Holos Party MP & not Ze or Sluha inner circle & is Crimean Tatar
His appointment is signal of
- constructive cooperation with pol factions that are at times very critical of Ze
- 🇺🇦 won’t give up on - a pushback to mistaken US analysts trying to force negotiations.
2
Umerov was a participant in the March 2022 peace negotiations. He is not an outsider. He is not inexperienced. He is not unknown among Ukrainian leaders (political or military), Ukraine’s allies or among the Russians. But he also has respect & contacts in Turkey & Saudi Arabia
3
When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵
1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n
2. Not only is this an aggressive Russian blockade on 🇺🇦 grain shipments raising global grain prices (benefitting major grain producers that ramped up production 🇷🇺🇧🇷) it is also a tactic used to terrorize poorer countries in global south that are dependent on these exports. 2/n
3. 🇷🇺 is makes money from these actions.
RU remains 1 of the largest global exporters of grain.
RU increased production & signed deals with countries 4 shipments of grain.
RU benefits from blockade sparked price rises.
THERE ARE NO SANCTIONS ON 🇷🇺 ARGICULTURAL SHIPMENTS.
3/n