Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Apr 8, 2022 12 tweets 15 min read Read on X
Following @ASN_Org 2021 @GwendolynSasse & I coordinated 2 special issues related 2 the #Belarus 2020 mass protests. The 1st issue was published in February & is available #OpenAccess 2 read from #postsovietaffairs & just in time 4 #BASEES2022 #ASN2022 here’s what’s inside 🧵1/n Image
“This symposium employs established social science theory to frame and place into comparative perspective the case of Belarusian mass mobilization that began in August 2020.” @GwendolynSasse @oonuch tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/n Image
“Do geopolitical orientations distinguish anti-Lukashenka protesters from non-protesters in Belarus?” We find robust evidence of polarization along geopolitical lines.” @GwendolynSasse @oonuch @MOBILISEproject tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 3/n ImageImageImage
“I develop a theory based on the case of the 2010-2011 crackdown in Belarus…[and] show that this crackdown was followed by a sharp decline in protest that particularly affected socio-economic protest” @sashadevo tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 4/n Image
“During moments of nationwide mass mobilization, what distinguishes the towns and cities that rise in the first week from those that do not see protest? … what drives mobilization in early-rising localities.” @emm_mateo tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 5/n Image
“Media, then, appear to have served not merely as aggregators of and conduits for social processes generated elsewhere, but as the producers of social and political force in their own right.” @samagreene tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 6/n Image
“This paper examines the practices, performance, and perceptions of the messaging platform Telegram as an actor in the 2020 Belarus protests.” @Marielle_W_ @tanyalokot tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 7/n Image
“We examine support among 1210 Belarusians to four foreign policy options for the country ” tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… @Toal_CritGeo #JohnOloughlin 8/n Image
“Belarusian society has become more supportive of liberal political and economic values. This trend is particularly driven by the older generation and does not exclude Lukashenka’s support base.” @Krawatzek #julialangbein @ZOiS_Berlin tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 9/n Image
“discuss three articles focusing on the origins of the protests, the role of social media platforms and the strategies and results of state repression.” #graemerobertson tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 10/n Image
“This commentary on Belarus’ 2020 uprising discusses the symposium’s contributions to understanding public opinion, protest, and regime crisis in countries like Belarus, and the case of Belarus itself.” @brynrosenfeld tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 11/n Image

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More from @oonuch

Jun 12
A 🧵ON NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE May/June 2024 @MOBILISEproject

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South.

Full report with analysis here: mobiliseproject.com/wp-content/upl…

Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Zelenskyy's approval at 56%. Voting intentions show a tie between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi at 27%, with Poroshenko at 7%. Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Enthusiasm for Zelenskyy dropped from 33% in July 2022 to 8% in May 2024. Sympathy remains stable at 18%. Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 8
Correcting bad takes on Amb. Zaluzhnyi & dozens of media request

🧵of my analysis (I’m on record voiceing this in briefings in Whitehall/Wesrminster 3 weeks back)

1) Those who r surprised by Zaluzhnyi being in the fold don’t know full back story & haven’t been privy to info
2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022.

Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.
3) Zaluzhny is a patriot and is committed 2 being part of the team & Zelensky wants him in the fold, just in a different role. You might not agree what role but that is not up to you.

Ukraine’s allies also want Zaluzhny in the fold. More on that to come.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 14
Shame @TorontoStar publishes such uninformed a-empirical navel grazing about what is & is not „rational.” See exert👇by some who has never studied Ukraine or the region properly.
1) If it is a war of attrition it is certainly also 1 that Russia cannot win. Image
2) Reminder in a democracy what citizens wantmatters - 80%+ of Ukrainians = vehemently opposed to ANY territorial concessions as @MOBILISEproject data show
Image
Image
3) But to be clear not only does popular will matter in a democracy normatively & de jure, it also should be a major concern of any serious (be it realist or ratchoice) analysts when suggesting a likely war game outcome.

Understanding human capital in a democracy 1 also understands limits of possible & probably actions actors - the analysts purport to know - can make.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 3
On the 9th day of new Ukrainian Christmas
@MOBILISEproject
#poliscinerds gave to me
9 main news sources
8/10 civilian resistance
7 citizen facts
6 language facts
5 years of financial data
4 priorities
3 leaders
2 preferences
1 support 4 democracy
Image
Image
MOBILISE PROJECT PANEL DATA
Nationally Representative Survey
Collected by KIIS
CATI mode N= 1,200 - 2,000
Margin of error is no greater than 3.3% for 50%+
All data nationally representative of the 18+ population
All data weighted to the population
What media do Ukrainians consume for political news?
The main story here is that TV viewership has gone down and significantly whilst internet use for new has gone up from 64% of those using the internet for news in 2019 to 90% in 2023. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 3, 2023
Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted?

“The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address.

Small 🧵

1
Umerov was Holos Party MP & not Ze or Sluha inner circle & is Crimean Tatar
His appointment is signal of
- constructive cooperation with pol factions that are at times very critical of Ze
- 🇺🇦 won’t give up on - a pushback to mistaken US analysts trying to force negotiations.
2
Umerov was a participant in the March 2022 peace negotiations. He is not an outsider. He is not inexperienced. He is not unknown among Ukrainian leaders (political or military), Ukraine’s allies or among the Russians. But he also has respect & contacts in Turkey & Saudi Arabia
3
Read 8 tweets
Jul 20, 2023
When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵

1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n
2. Not only is this an aggressive Russian blockade on 🇺🇦 grain shipments raising global grain prices (benefitting major grain producers that ramped up production 🇷🇺🇧🇷) it is also a tactic used to terrorize poorer countries in global south that are dependent on these exports. 2/n
3. 🇷🇺 is makes money from these actions.
RU remains 1 of the largest global exporters of grain.
RU increased production & signed deals with countries 4 shipments of grain.
RU benefits from blockade sparked price rises.
THERE ARE NO SANCTIONS ON 🇷🇺 ARGICULTURAL SHIPMENTS.
3/n
Read 10 tweets

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