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Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Let me try again with corrections from followers: #Omicon BA.2 in the U.K. Household surveillance with almost 1 in 13 people infected in recent weeks. Daily deaths were 350 and 100s flights canceled. Please living with the virus is not letting the virus spread without control.
Sources: 1 in 13 people infected per week
theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…
350 deaths a day and record hospitalization for the past year. Image
100s flights canceled today and 100s in the week. independent.co.uk/travel/news-an…

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More from @Tuliodna

Tulio de Oliveira Profile picture
Apr 11
New Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 detected in South Africa, Botswana, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, and U.K. Early indications that these new sublineages are increasing as a share of genomically confirmed cases in SA. No cause for alarm as no major spike in cases, admissions or deaths in SA Image
The good news is that BA.4 and BA.5 (like BA.1) can be identified by proxy marker of SGTF using the Thermo Fisher qPCR assay. These sublineages are responsible for an increasing share of sequenced cases in SA from early March and are well tracked by the NHLS and NGS-SA. Image
Despite the increase in the percentage of genomes, BA.4 and BA.5 are not causing a spike in infections in SA. The same is seem for hospitalization and deaths, which SA is at a record low. Image
Read 12 tweets
Tulio de Oliveira Profile picture
Mar 5
Amazing how our very early analysis in Nov 2021 showed that Omicron was the most transmissible variant. We also estimated that would take over everywhere in the world and that is true now. Today >99% of infections in the world are Omicron. 1/
It is also impressive how Africa is now doing real-time genomics surveillance at similar levels to other continents.
We were also the first to show that Omicron BA.2 sub-lineage was taking over and likely more transmissible than Omicron BA.1 and this is now happening in most places in the world.
Read 5 tweets
Tulio de Oliveira Profile picture
Feb 20
I tried to promise to family and friends to stop attacking ‘some developed countries’, but can not help to say that the USA is really screwing the pandemic response and cause unnecessary panic in the world. A small thread
One of the main reasons why the USA is, on my opinion, one of the only countries to have a higher death from Omicron than Delta are due to:
1 - Poor vaccination
2 - Lack of preparation to a more transmissible variant
3 - Lack of consistency of public health messages
It is amazing that the country that developed some of the most effective vaccines ranks 64th (and going down) on vaccination rates.
Read 5 tweets
Tulio de Oliveira Profile picture
Feb 9
As expected, Omicron BA.2 takes over in South Africa, close to 100% of the new genomes. What does it mean?
First, this comes on a background of decreasing infections. South Africa takes an approach of random and proportional surveillance. Below is a number of high-quality genomes per week which matches cases per week.
At present, the picture is quite messy as clusters in schools, reduced testing in the community, etc. So we need to be careful on the interpretation of increase of BA.2 and clustered outbreaks.
Read 8 tweets
Tulio de Oliveira Profile picture
Jan 26
A thread on #Omicron sub-lineages BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, and BA.3. Here, we go back to original papers and highlight what we currently know about them in the geographic location where Omicron emerged and caused the first large wave of infections in the world.
The BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3 were originally identified in southern Africa - the BA.2 and BA.3 share many not all of the characteristic mutations of BA.1/Omicron and both having many unique mutations of their own nature.com/articles/s4158… Image
At present BA.1.1 and BA.2 are growing in prevalence in many places in the world, in South Africa, it seems to be around 25% of the most recent samples (sampled on the week starting at 10 Jan-17 Jan). Image
Read 9 tweets
Tulio de Oliveira Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
South Africa decreases restrictions in spite of #Omicron dominating all of the infections. This action is puzzling to the world. Here are a few thoughts on why the government in SA may be correct by acting in this way... Tweets 1/8
1 - #Omicron emerged on Nov 21, when infections were at a record low (for example 200-300 a day in SA vs 40,000-50,000 a day in the UK). In addition, at present, the Reproductive number is < 1, which suggests that the epidemic is not expanding very fast.
3 - #Omicron emerged with very low numbers of infections and hospitalizations. South Africa still has spare hospital capacity. At present only 722 patients are on ICU and 312 on ventilation (as compared with 2,700 on ICU and 1,500 ventilated on the Delta wave)
Read 9 tweets

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