Thread by @mattia_n

Olga is right! While our attention is rightfully shifting from Russian massacres in the center to the upcoming offensive in the east, we cannot lose sight of how Russia continues to govern the temporarily occupied south. Some observations of mine in a 🧵

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1512326567480995842

Let's begin with some recommended reading. Jen Kirby wrote a terrific piece on Ukraine's disappeared. The article focuses on the abductions in the temporarily occupied south and sheds light on the Russian tactics and playbook. /1
vox.com/23012456/ukrai…

Anastasiia Moskvychova, who has been tracking disappearances for @zminaUkraine, says in the article that they have confirmed more than 100 arbitrary detentions since February 24; about 50 people are still missing. /2

According to the ZMINA center, the largest number of missing or illegally detained people among the documented cases is from the Kherson region, where the fate of at least 20 active members of local communities is still unknown. 12 are from the Zaporizhzhia region. /3

In late March, ZMINA launched a great campaign #thetaken in which they draw attention to the abduction. Highly recommend following it. /4
zmina.ua/en/event-en/th…

United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented about 109 cases of suspected detention or enforced disappearances among civilians since February 24, including 48 local officials. /5

.@avalaina believes that these numbers are only the “top of the iceberg.” Her group is tracking dozens more suspected cases of enforced disappearances, but they are still trying to corroborate evidence, a task that’s all the more difficult in Russian-occupied areas. /6

Take Oleh Baturyn from Nova Kakhovka, who gave a long and detailed interview to Radio Svoboda how he was kidnapped and interrogated in the City Council by Russians in the presence of their new local commandant of the city. /7
radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryaz…

Oleh says that he heard a lot of torture of other prisoners, who were mostly Ukrainian veterans: "the ATO veterans, as it seemed to me, at that time were their main, so to speak, target audience. They conducted the most thorough and tough interrogations with them." /8

Oleh Baturyn believes that his abduction and interrogation served as a warning to him. The occupation forces wanted to intimidate him. After his release, Oleh managed to get out of the occupied Kherson. /9

This week, Sergey Danilov, a 🇺🇦expert, citing several sources, that "in Kherson began to operate analog of the Donetsk torture chamber "Izolyatsia". Danilov emphasizes: "If almost all month people were kidnapped and pressed, now they began to torture." /10
facebook.com/serge.danylov/…

Danilov says that at first the Russians, expected that they would intimidate and "turn people" but soon learned that they were unable to break the resistance and proceeded with the actual "destruction of the active elements" of the entire region. /11
radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryaz…

Indeed, we see the Russians applying more pressure on activists or anyone whom they believe to be against the occupation. On April 3, during a demonstration, in Kakhovka, the Russian military detained five local residents, tortured them, and released them after three days. /12

Deputy of the Kherson regional Council Sergey Hlan said that the Russians at checkpoints check not only the passports but lists, which, according to him, contain people with an active pro-Ukrainian position, military, journalists and volunteers. /13

In an interview, Ihor Kolykhaiev, the mayor of Kherson, said the occupation forces have an entire database of all the activists in the city, personal files on every deputy, and veterans who fought in the Donbas in the city. /14
pravda.com.ua/articles/2022/…

The lists of local deputies include a lot of details. It seems that the (local) Ukrainian Intelligence (SBU) had those lists (which is a scandal in itself) and the mayor hints at the fact that someone leaked it to the Russians... /15
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/…

Based on the lists, the Russians are looking for people, detaining and torturing some, and are visiting the homes of activists and the military and looting them. /16

Given the deteriorating security situation, several mayors have fled or left their cities. The mayors who refused to cooperate have left their cities, like the ones of Oleshky, Skadovsk and Kakhovka (to name three more prominent cases). /17
suspilne.media/225720-mertvij…

To zoom further out, the Russians are busy setting up fully functional occupation regimes and mayors who until now refused to cooperate are either detained, intimidated, tortured or forced to leave. At the same time, nearly all city councils were dissolved in the south. /18

At the same time, the occupation forces are trying to set up unelected people's councils, like in Enerhodar. /19
pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/7…

They even established new city authorities, including a "mayor" in the besieged city of Mariupol. /20

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1511089652417114117?s=20&t=yomYmyXFpYbyiYgEaXAc6A

Interestingly, there is a pattern. Whether it is Melitopol, Mariupol, Kakhovka, Skadovsk or Genichesk: the Russians find fringe forces, no political heavyweights. Some like the appointed head of Skadovsk is a well known corrupt official /21

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1510647517410701320?s=20&t=yomYmyXFpYbyiYgEaXAc6A

Some more information on the shady characters appointed in Genichesk and Kakhovka was collected by Radio Svoboda. The appointed "mayor" of Kakhovka until recently was unemployed, living in Sochi, enjoys "a scandalous reputation" locally /22
radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryaz…

Long story short: the Russians are busy setting up their occupation regimes, relying more and more on brute force and on the few local collaborators, nearly all of them either fringe forces or those who switched the sides from the pro-Russian opposition platform for life. /23

The clear goal remains to call out a "Kherson People's Republic". Recent Ukrainian military operations in the Kherson oblast, in Stanislav about 45 km away from the city, complicate that a bit but I expect them to pursue this project in earnest. /24

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1511986929537007625?s=20&t=yomYmyXFpYbyiYgEaXAc6A