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Evergreen Intel Profile picture
@vcdgf555
Apr 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Likely not alone.

PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20A 20049 #7A4287 landed at Baku, Azerbaijan as well 3 hours ago.
Currently 3:45AM, Serbia time.

For no reason in particular.
PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20A 20042 #7A4282 approaching Istanbul. Following earlier Y-20A 20045 #7A4285
Next in line is PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20A 20049 #7A4287
Another coming up over Samsun, Turkey.

PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20A 20041 #7A4281

Makes 4 so far. Expecting more.
5th PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20A... 20047 #7A427F
(h/t @StephenNicoud via @ameliairheart)
So, some thoughts:

Based on open-source info, there are 34 known PLAAF Y-20As (including at least 1 Y-20U tanker).

This constitutes about 15% of their Y-20 active fleet.

As you might have heard, China is going through COVID lockdowns again. Possibly related.
Y-20A number six.

Recap:
The following six PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20As have been seen heading for Serbia:

20041 #7A4281
20042 #7A4282
20045 #7A4285
20047 #7A427F
20049 #7A4287
20142 #7A428A
Despite being on Mode-S, indications are the PLAAF 🇨🇳 Y-20s landed (are landing) at Batajnica Airbase, 🇷🇸 Serbia.
(@ADSBexchange)
@ADSBexchange Before anyone cries havoc about there being this many PLA Air Force transports in Europe's backyard, know this: not only did Serbia give the green light for this op, but Bulgaria and Turkey each gave the approval for entering their airspace.

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More from @vcdgf555

Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Jan 15
Iran-related thread.

Starting at 20:02 UTC, a pair of USAF C-17As set to depart from Al-Udeid AB, Qatar (OTBH) were instructed to "return to the chalks" and that their mission to Chania, Greece (LGSA) had been scrubbed. They were instructed then to wait for more info.

1/ Image
The change in plans coincides within minutes of remarks made by President Trump that the killings and executions inside Iran had been reported to have stopped, based on sources within Iran itself.

2/
This all occurred shortly after six USAF KC-135 tankers from Al-Udeid were seen departing in quick succession. These were believed to be evacuation flights, destination unknown.

The last KC-135 departed at ~1927 UTC or 35 minutes before the C-17As were told to stand down.

3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Jan 3
Considering how quiet things have gotten this last little bit, I want to take the time to make a few points.

- 1st round seems to be over, at least for the Caracas area.
- Given how many airbases and military targets there are, this is frankly somewhat of a light 1st round.

1/
(cont.)

- Whatever was going on with the helicopters...
(A) Given social media these days, if something went terribly wrong, we likely would see it pretty quick
(B) Where did they come from??
(cont)
- In terms of assets we've seen build up.
(A) Rather light in terms of airstrikes, either from bases in the region, bombers from elsewhere or from the flattops.
(B) We are NOT maintaining air presence over Venezuelan skies. No sounds of fighters overhead.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Jan 1
Iran updates.
Thread.

1/
2/
3/
Read 62 tweets
Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Nov 21, 2025
Thread. Venezuela.

1/
2/
3/
Read 19 tweets
Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Oct 26, 2025
Watched House of Dynamite.

My opinion in my replies. Image
Fantastic film. Perhaps the best of the modern era in terms of nuclear war fiction. Invoking the plot lines of a number of many prior films without actually drawing them to their full conclusions.

That said, I felt there were several major problems.
First, the whodunnit.

The scenario is made possible by a certain amount of ambiguity as to whether the DPRK, PLA or Russia launched the initial missile, made possible by a failure of detection by an early warning satellite in a region in which all 3 nations share interests.
Read 8 tweets
Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Jun 13, 2025
Day 2 thread of Israel vs Iran.

1/
NYT initially reported, then retracted, that the Quds Force Commander, Ismail Qaani, was killed.

Qaani is the successor to Qasem Soleimani.

2/
IAF appears to be entering Iranian airspace with impunity, even attacking during daylight.

3/

Read 21 tweets

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