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Apr 9 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
No #FridayReport this week but for weekend reading the latest edition of @TheActuaryMag is a “two years on” pandemic special.

This thread highlights some articles that might be of interest.

theactuary.com/issues/2022/04…
1. Our co-chairs Matthew Edwards and @ActuaryByDay are interviewed by editor Ruolin Wang. The wide-ranging discussion includes the work of @COVID19actuary and the CMI, the media, the future, juggling, and Batman villains.

theactuary.com/2022/04/04/imp…
2. Dr @ARegenauer presents an overview of the latest #LongCovid research, and suggests a plausible subgrouping of this multifaceted post-viral condition. He considers what we we have learned, and just how much is still not known.

theactuary.com/features/2022/…
3. Dr @cjmartin0 and Steve Bale discuss the support provided by a team of @actuarynews volunteers to the public sector. The team, which also included @DanRyanCoios and @ActuaryByDay, modelled the impact of exceeding hospital capacity, and also #LongCovid.

theactuary.com/features/2022/…
4. Maryam Abdullah shares insights from @actuarynews scenario modelling of pandemic impacts. She suggests that learning points from the approach taken may be useful in modelling of climate change, or of future pandemics.

theactuary.com/features/2022/…
5. Kate Dron, Alvin Fu and Randall Wright compare different nations’ pandemic experiences. As well as factors such as vaccine uptake, healthcare and strategy, they also consider mobility, community cohesion, population density, geography and climate.

theactuary.com/2022/04/04/for…
6. Continuing the theme of international comparisons, Sharad Bajla and Rajeshwarie VS contrast the COVID-19 policy response and the impact of the pandemic in two very different Asian nations - India and Singapore.

theactuary.com/features/2022/…
7. With countries such as the UK moving to “living with COVID”, Dr Adam Strange and Dr @PrachiPatkee discuss the transition from pandemic to endemic. Future mutations are expected. Vaccines, therapeutics and behaviour change may all play a role.

theactuary.com/2022/04/04/end…
8. It’s not just life and health risks affected by the pandemic. Lockdowns led to a reduction in traffic and hence accidents, and remote working increases cyber risks. Socrates Olympios examines the impact on motor and cyber insurance.

theactuary.com/2022/04/04/new…
9. Wrapping up our summary, Sanjay Joshi considers the modelling and management of existential risks in general. Future pandemics, engineered pathogens and bioterrorism risks may be difficult to quantify but that does not mean they should be ignored.

theactuary.com/features/2022/…

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Apr 6
Hospital admissions with COVID in England appear to have peaked, with the 7-day average flat in recent days (up 2% week-on-week).

See below for a breakdown by region as well bed occupancy and hospital deaths, which have risen significantly. 1/5 Image
If the peak isn’t clear from the admissions chart above, here is the implied R estimate. It’s clear that this has been falling for a while and is now around 1, so admissions can be expected to start falling next. 2/5 Image
The regional picture is mixed but no region has experienced significant week-on-week growth. Admissions have fallen by 11% in the South West. Elsewhere, regions have seen small increases of between 2% and 7%. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Mar 19
Our 63rd Friday Report is now available covering recent developments with vaccines, treatments and data.

In this edition (thread):
•Vaccine safety results
•Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against Omicron

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
Also included:
•Road ahead for COVID vaccination
•BA.2 dominant in England
•Risk of severe outcomes – Omicron v Delta
•Evusheld as vaccine alternative
•More evidence Ivermectin doesn’t improve outcomes
•COVID-19 impact on brain function

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
Also included:
•Omicron survives longer on surfaces
•Worldwide excess mortality
•Transmissibility comparison – Omicron v Delta
•Infection studies (REACT and ONS)
•ONS antibody levels and COVID mortality
•UKHSA 28-day mortality vs ONS

covidactuaries.org/2022/03/18/the…
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Mar 16
Hospital admissions with COVID continue to increase rapidly across England. Up by 27% in the last week.

See below for a breakdown by region, age and primary diagnosis. Also bed occupancy and hospital deaths. 1/5
Admissions are up sharply in all English regions. The most rapid increase is NE and Yorks, up 52% week-on-week! Other regions are up by 21-26%. 2/5
Admissions with COVID are increasing at a similar rate in all age groups, with increases of 25-30% week-on-week. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 22
New Friday Report is now available, covering recent developments with Omicron (including the BA.2 variant), vaccines, treatments, modelling and data.

In this edition (thread):
- US cases and hospitalisations by vaccine status and previous diagnosis 🇺🇸

covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Also included:
- Booster progress, socio-economic variation and reasons for hesitancy 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- Omicron outcomes in SA 🇿🇦
- Some rapid tests less effective at detecting Omicron
- Vaccination, infection and fertility
- Vaccinated less likely to get Long COVID
covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Also included:
- EAVE II enables large COVID studies 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
- Distribution of anti-virals 🇬🇧
- Hospital admissions vs modelling 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- Global excess mortality 🌍
- @ONS infection and antibody studies 🇬🇧
- Primary diagnosis data 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- 2021 death rates 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
covidactuaries.org/2022/01/22/the…
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 21
Update on COVID-19 admissions, occupancy and deaths in English hospitals.

Nationally, admissions with COVID have fallen by 11% week-on-week, with significant falls in every region. Fastest fall in the North West (down 20%) and slowest in the South West (down 6%). 1/4
This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including an update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Assuming no further uptick in admissions the peak will be significantly lower than the central modelled scenarios. 2/4
COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England is back below 15,000 beds occupied. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is down by 13% week-on-week, while other bed occupancy is down 10%. The proportion of COVID patients in mechanical ventilation beds is the lowest it has been. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 18
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its first Mortality Monitor of 2022. It covers to 7 January (week 1).

There were 7% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 1 of 2019. That is 784 excess deaths in England and Wales this week.
CMI calculates 121,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 900 occurred in 2022.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 0.4% of a full year's mortality below 2019. The cumulative measure compares the first 7 days of each year rather than ISO weeks used above.
As has been the case for around the last six months, the number of excess deaths calculated by the CMI was reasonably similar to the number of deaths with COVID on the death certificate this week.
Read 4 tweets

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