Dave Keating Profile picture
Apr 10, 2022 13 tweets 9 min read Read on X
BREAKING: #Macron beats #LePen in French #presidentielles2022 first round election.

A larger spread than 2017. Image
These are exit polls so the actual result we'll know in time, but we know that for sure it will be Macron and Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It's also the worst performance ever for a Socialist Party candidate, according to the exit polls. Image
The full results from the 8pm projection, which has historically proven to end up being accurate.

It is the worst result in history for both the 'big tent' mainsteam parties - the Socialists and the Gaulists.

It is (I think?) the highest vote in history for the far-left. Image
Valérie Pécresse has just conceded defeat - a catastrophic result for the center-right party of Charles de Gaul.

She endorses Emmanuel #Macron, to protect France from #LePen "and the chaos that would follow".

Centre-left's Hidalgo also endorsed Macron. Image
Green Party candidate @yjadot conceding.

"I call on Green-minded voters to block the far right by voting for @EmmanuelMacron on 24 April. Nobody should underplay the fundamental threat that is the far right to democracy, social peace, the planet and the values of our republic" Image
Marine #LePen says #Macron "has fought against individual nations and individual peoples in Europe".

"On the 24th of April, people will vote for our society and civilization," she says. "It will be one where people defend the French language, our civilization, our way of living" Image
Far-left #Melenchon decries system that makes people "choose between lesser of two evils" but says "you should not vote for Mrs Le Pen"

"I know your anger, but don't give into it. Dont let anger make you do things that would be irreparable"

"Le Pen should not get a single vote" Image
Five years ago #Melenchon did not endorse Macron or clearly instruct people to not vote for Le Pen. He acknowledged that, and said he will be very clear this time.

He therefor said *four times* that #LePen should not get a single vote from his France Unbowed voters.
The only endorsement #LePen is getting tonight is from her far-right rival Eric #Zemmour, whose outrageous comments during the campaign made her look moderate by comparison

But he has a dig for LePen: "I never lied to get ahead in the polls, I never went against my own thoughts" Image
#Macron speaking to his supporters now, many of whom are waiving 🇪🇺EU flags. He looks ahead to 2nd round.

"Some may vote for me to block off the far right, and I am fully aware that that does not mean they support my project, and I respect that." Image
#Macron says he'll work to convince those people who abstained or voted for extremes because they are frustrated about persistent inequalities that his programme has a better future for them than the far right.

He says this vote will be critical for the future of 🇫🇷&🇪🇺. Image
"I do not want France to pull out of the EU and have only international xenophobes and nationalists as allies," #Macron says.

(#LePen stopped calling for France to leave the EU after #Brexit. No candidate was calling for that in this election)
"I'm counting on you, nothing is certain" #Macron tells his supporters in conclusion.

The French president's biggest enemy he must combat over the next two weeks is apathy.

He cannot afford having anyone think his election is a fait accompli. If they do, they could stay home. Image

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More from @DaveKeating

Oct 9
In ten minutes Viktor Orban begins his debate with the 🇪🇺Parliament.

MEPS are expected to demand that he unequivocally states he will accept the result of the 🇺🇸election. Concerns have been raised after he reminded in a press conference yesterday that he's planning to use the Council presidency to host an informal meeting of EU prime ministers and presidents in Budapest 3 days after the 🇺🇸election - at a time when it is very likely Trump will be challenging the result if Harris wins.

"We will open several bottles of champagne if Trump is back," Orban told journalists.

In 2020, Orban and his ally Janez Jansa from Slovenia initially refused to recognise Biden's win.
Orban has entered the chamber.

Parliament speaker Roberta Metsola says introducing him: "The Hungarian presidency arrives at an important moment of institutional change [start of new term after 🇪🇺election] - a new mandate here brings new challenges and opportunities." Image
"Europe may not be perfect, and while we must be honest where we can do better, we must also not shy away from celebrating our successes," says 🇪🇺Parliament speaker Metsola.

"Prime minister, many of us recall the very lively debate [with you] 6 years ago here in the chamber. I expect no less today. Because in this house of democracy, as in Europe where the rule of law and freedom of expression are sacrosanct, we may not always agree but we will always give space for the respectful sharing of views."Image
Read 25 tweets
Jun 19
Breaking: The European Commission is opening an 'excessive deficit procedure' against France for the first time.

This should have happened long ago, but France's power in Brussels for years made the Commission look away.

How will this impact the 🇫🇷legislative election? Image
Procedure also started for 🇮🇹🇵🇱🇧🇪🇭🇺🇲🇹🇸🇰

Romania currently the only country already under the excessive deficit procedure. Commission announces it will stay there.

The rules are meant to prevent a repeat of the 💶debt crisis, making countries tighten fiscal policy or face fines.
🇫🇷 had the 2nd-highest deficit (5.5%) in🇪🇺 in 2023, after 🇮🇹

For years EU officials openly acknowledged that France was getting special treatment, with 🇪🇺President Juncker famously explaining why France wasn't being put under the procedure by saying: "Parce que c'est la France"
Read 6 tweets
Apr 25
🇫🇷President @EmmanuelMacron's much previewed speech on the future of 🇪🇺 is about to start.

Watch live with English interpretation here: youtube.com/live/tkDUSYHoK…
#Macron opens his speech by saying this. isa follow-up to his speech about Europe 7 years ago. He says he wanted to see more progress by now.

But he notes: "European sovereignty - a term that may have seemed very French 7 years ago" has now been embraced.
Macron says the EU has weathered several crises over the past 7 years, including #Brexit (plus Covid & Russia).

But he says the union remained strong in the face of these challenges, and as a result, nobody speaks about leaving the union anymore.
Read 15 tweets
Aug 3, 2023
Allow me a little #CrossBorderRail rant.

Barcelona-Brussels should be an appealing train route. At 9 hours it's a little over the cusp of what people are willing to endure, but it's doable.

However the lack of cooperation between 🇫🇷&🇪🇸 makes it very difficult. 🧵1/6 Image
There are 2 ways to do it in 9 hours:

🚄1: 🇫🇷TGV BCN-PAR, 🇧🇪Thalys PAR-BXL €288
🚄2: 🇪🇸Renfe BCN-Lyon, 🇫🇷TGV Lyon-BXL €181

The problem with the first option is you need to take the metro between train stations in Paris to switch, whereas in Lyon it's the same station

But...
🇪🇸Renfe & 🇫🇷SNCF don't have a ticketing agreement, so there's no way to get the preferred option as a combined ticket.

It doesn't show up on either website (Renfe won't even let you choose Brussels as a destination). Even 3rd party sites like SNCB Intl & Trainline can't show it
Read 10 tweets
May 9, 2023
Tonight is the first semi-final for #Eurovision2023 in 🇬🇧Liverpool.

It's happening on the 25th anniversary of the 1998 contest hosted in 🇬🇧Birmingham, a transformative year that marks the boundary between the 'old' and 'new' Eurovision.
In 1998 Dana International became the first trans (and 1st openly LGBT) person to win the ESC.

Following the '98 contest it was decided to make two major rule changes: countries no longer had to sing in their national language and they weren't required to use an orchestra.
Those changes transformed what had become a stale archaic-looking contest in '90s into the explosion of spectacle in 2000s - helped also by the entry of enthusiastic Eastern European countries unable to participate during Communism.

Birmingham was the last show of the old guard.
Read 6 tweets
May 8, 2023
It's #Eurovision week!

Yesterday the delegations arrived on the #TurquoiseCarpet, and tomorrow night the first semi-final will air around the world.

As promised, here's a thread about this year's acts. 🧵1/17
youtube.com/live/2M0DtRFx3…
The bookies have 🇸🇪Sweden as the favourite to win, followed by 🇫🇮Finland and 🇫🇷France.

But Sweden's odds have gotten worse since rehearsals started.

The singer, #Loreen, already won for 🇸🇪 in 2012 with Euphoria, a global hit hitting number one on the charts in 21 countries. Image
Among fans, I keep hearing "I predict Sweden will win but I don't want it to win". People like the song but think a 🇸🇪win is too predictable. 🇸🇪has dominated the contest for 2 decades.

If 🇸🇪win again they'll match Ireland's record for most wins - 7.
Read 17 tweets

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