Thread by @scottdkehler

Here are a few evening thoughts about the upcoming storm..

Latest trends have definitely shown a westward shift in the greatest impacts from this storm. This will result in a lot more snow and overall impact in Westman than previously expected (1/7)

#mbstorm #skstorm #ndstorm

The westward trend means the low centre is farther west, which will draw more warm air into the RRV and SE MB. This means possibly temps around 1 C on Wednesday which would cause more melting/compaction, likely reducing new snow depth (2/7)

The west/northwest trend also raises the chance of the southern RRV/SE MB getting dry slotted on Wednesday, where snow may stop completely, or become light when it was previously thought to be very heavy. This would be great news flood-wise. Wpg may even get dry-slotted (3/7)

This shift of the low would put the highest winds in E SK/Westman/ND (70 G 90), which combined with colder temps means a crippling blizzard is highly likely there now. But this lessens winds in the RRV to unimpressive values (30 G 50) for most of Wednesday (4/7)

Overall, this means a slightly less significant event in the RRV/SE MB with heavy/wet snow, but less wind and some melting. More of a crippling blizzard in Westman and even into SK. (5/7)

It's not impossible we could see yet another shift in the forecast, but I'm feeling more confident that the greatest impacts are now farther west than earlier thought. (6/7)

You will also hear about severe weather in the US, especially on Wednesday. That will occur from the same system, where it is drawing a very moist airmass off the Gulf of Mexico. (7/7)