🧵As promised, here are my thoughts on how this storm played out. Technically the storm isn’t completely over, but the worst is, and things are slowly improving. Therefore, I think it’s safe to make some comments. (1/many) Firstly, we need to separate two things, the meteorological forecasts of the storm and the communication of impacts. I will address the meteorological forecasts first because it’s the easier of the two. (2/x)

🧵 A few morning thoughts:

So far things are playing out mostly as expected. Snow moved in a bit later this morning, but that won't change the forecast overall. I discussed briefly last night why that might happen. (1/8) If you look on radar there are some very intense "yellow" bands of snow. These are where the excessive snow rates are occurring (~ 5cm/hr) and if they stall over a location for a prolonged period of time, they may see higher totals than surrounding areas. (2/8)

🧵APRIL 12 PM: My latest thoughts on the storm!

Overall, the outlook for the storm has changed little since yesterday. The only slight change I'm seeing is perhaps a bit later arrival of the snow for most folks in MB/SK. (1/x) Current radar (see below) has very light snow already along the US border. However, dry northeasterly winds are stalling its northward advance. Therefore, many models show little accumulation north of border regions today. (2/x)

Here are a few evening thoughts about the upcoming storm..

Latest trends have definitely shown a westward shift in the greatest impacts from this storm. This will result in a lot more snow and overall impact in Westman than previously expected (1/7)

#mbstorm #skstorm #ndstorm The westward trend means the low centre is farther west, which will draw more warm air into the RRV and SE MB. This means possibly temps around 1 C on Wednesday which would cause more melting/compaction, likely reducing new snow depth (2/7)