Thread by @syrpis

A quick reflection about #Partygate in the wake of the Met Police's decision to fine Johnson and Sunak.

The thing to watch is the way in which the justifications Tory MPs will offer for continuing to support Johnson will... change. 1/11

The Civil Service (first Case, then Gray) report, with the intervention of the Met Police, came about as a result of Johnson's refusal to answer questions about #Partygate. 2/11

He insisted that he could not talk about it because the investigation was ongoing.

And, many Tory MPs expressed significant reservations about his behaviour, while repeating the line that they were 'waiting for Sue Gray'. 3/11

One imagines that the hope was that the Sue Gray report would, at least in part, exonerate the PM, or find that he was at least not personally involved in the lockdown breaches. 4/11

It now looks (though there may yet be appeals, and/or a short period to wait til the final Sue Gray report) as though those hopes are not to be realised.

This is about as serious an outcome as this process could have resulted in. 5/11

I suspect that the main 'line of defence' will be that it is 'like a speeding ticket'. That is not a good line of defence. And, importantly, it is not the line of defence being used when the stories broke late last year. 6/11

The line then was not: yes, he might have broken the law, but that doesn't matter because...

The line was that he did not break the law (and that it would indeed be serious he had broken the law). 7/11

I remember Brexit hard man @SteveBakerHW making the point earnestly in conversation with @bbcnickrobinson (on I think 'political thinking'). 8/11

Now, Johnson's backers will have to shift their position, and I would like to think that they will be held to account if and when they attempt to do so. 9/11

The impression I have is that they will say and do anything to save their man. It is an instinct they have shown time and again (the lack of an obvious successor is also a factor).

They will abuse process, and distort reality, in order to protect their own . 10/11

I have little doubt that we will, in the hours, days, and weeks ahead, see more of the same. I hope that at least some of them prove me wrong.

If I'm right, I hope that the voters of this country wake up and realise that they deserve far better. 11/11

Per Liz Truss… apologising, ‘taking responsibility’ and ‘delivering for Britain’ is apparently enough. The bar is set *so* low.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1513938360657661953

And per Jacob Rees Mogg this ‘ought to close the matter’.

https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1513958856937938949

I mean… they’re not even trying to defend him. They’re just giving him unconditional support.

https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1513931783649304585

He can break the law, breach the Ministerial Code, and waste resources on endless investigations. But they will continue to support him.

It’s almost as though they realise that all the alternatives in the Tory party would be (even) worse…

Difficult to disagree with this assessment (also Dominic Grieve was excellent on #Newsnight).

https://twitter.com/sueperkins/status/1513977825505812488?s=20&t=qtaody_m54vg6MwbIqSRrQ

I've now found the Steve Baker clip (from as long ago as Jan). Listen to Nick Robinson's question at 6.20 and Steve Baker's response. And then listen to the Tories making a political decision today.
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…

This is a good example of what was being said at the time...

https://twitter.com/Gibbon1986/status/1514140346288115717?s=20&t=3y_DAT02X7BFpz9xqjHUsg

I missed this one yesterday. He has engaged with the law breaking point. He has done some research. But he might reflect that he should have stuck to the script.

https://twitter.com/bren4bassetlaw/status/1513905897118052355