One argument we'll hear re #partygate: you can't lose a PM during Ukraine war. But Mrs T was ousted by her MPs shortly after the Iraq invasion of Kuwait and during the Gulf War, in which our troops were deployed (unlike Ukraine). 1/4
It will be said you can't have a gap during a leadership contest but Johnson was out of action with Covid during our greatest peacetime crisis and, frankly, government carried on without missing him under Dept PM Raab. I 2/4
It'll be said that it is unconstitutional to unseat a PM with such a large electoral mandate. Or there is no time for a successor to establish themselves before the next election. But Thatcher had a landslide victory. Major took over mid-term and won the next election. 3/4
In a time of national crisis we need a leader who can be trusted by the electorate to do the right thing. It is especially important that 'we're all in it together', not one rule for them, another for us. Knowing your word is your bond is key in international relations too. 4/4
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Sue Gray is not investigating @Keir_Starmer's new accusation that @BorisJohnson broke the Ministerial Code by lying to Parliament about parties, a resigning matter. Clear job for his adviser on Ministerial Standards, Lord Geidt, has no power to initiate investigations.
Gray's report will have to reproduce the PM's defence and - like Lord Geidt recently over #wallpapergate and the "Missing Exchange" with Brownlow - have to take his his word. As with Geidt's report, I predict the government will leak headlines in advance with a positive spin.
The truth is Johnson knows he has a lot of control over the presentation of the facts in a report by a civil servant - which is why he has asked people to wait for the report.