Without even getting into legal arguments, this is factually wrong on at least three counts.

First, the new #FL10 and the old #FL10 are both 28% Black. There is no change to Black voting strength in Orlando's seat, as anyone who bothered to check DRA before tweeting would notice
Second, the new #FL14 in Tampa/St. Pete has a higher Black % than either the old #FL13 or the old #FL14. The old seats were likely to elect one white D and one white D or R. The new #FL14 offers a better chance for a Black rep to be elected from TB, at the expense of white D's.
Third, the split of the Black vote in St. Pete was likely done for compactness, and actually hurts R's! DeSantis's #FL14 (left) leaves out some AA precincts in St. Pete. Adding them (right) in makes the seat less compact, but more AA, and also makes #FL13 and #FL15 each redder.
Dave's point on North Florida will be the subject of litigation. We laid out the reasons why it may be federally illegal, based on recent cues from SCOTUS to racially gerrymander two Black communities 160 miles apart back in January:

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More from @RRHElections

Mar 3
A judge has ordered that the challenge to NY’s maps will go forward. Per @cinyc9, who attended today’s hearing, NY is likely to use its leg.-drawn map this year. The judge may order new elections if he strikes down the map, or changes could wait for ‘24. Decision next month.
Judge Patrick McAllister, who is presiding over the case, ordered discovery and denied Democrats’ motions to dismiss. Experts will testify on March 14.
Judge McAllister denied #NYGov Kathy Hochul's motion to be removed from the case and said she is a necessary party to the lawsuit.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
🚨🚨🚨#BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that required Alabama to redraw its congressional map. The new 6R-1D Alabama map will stand for this year.
rrhelections.com/index.php/2021…
The full Court opinion can be found here👇
supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf…
This means the soon to be passed least change Louisiana maps will also most likely withstand VRA challenges.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 6
Bill de Blasio is a Park Slope Democrat. The 2 groups deBalsio is still popular with are Park Slope progressives & black voters. As luck would have it the majority of voters in a #NY11 Democratic primary will be from Park Slope & black voters on Staten Island's North Shore.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Let's do a quick thread on #FL5, the most litigated district in the history of Election Twitter! We'll try to give some context to what @RonDeSantisFL is likely getting at when he argues the district--and thus the map that passed the Florida Senate today--is illegal. 1/x
#FL5, like most of America's ugliest racial gerrymanders, has its roots in the '92 redistricting cycle. The Bush 41 DOJ took a then-prevailing, but since-discredited, view of the VRA that required states to aggressively gerrymander to maximize the Black population in VRA seats 2/
The Bush DOJ pressured Southern states--mostly still run by Democrats--to break up 35-40% Black seats that were Black enough to elect a D, but white enough to ensure that D was white. This led to significant opportunity for Black D's and white R's at the expense of white D's. 3/
Read 31 tweets
Oct 22, 2021
This is a pretty amazing story happening in North Carolina involving Dems efforts to disqualify 2 duly elected GOP Supreme Court judges from ruling on case that would overturn 2 voter-approved constitutional amendments on voter ID & income tax 👇 1/6
carolinajournal.com/news-article/s…
In 2018 North Carolina voters overwhelmingly voted to amend state constitution to require photo identification for voting (passed with 55% of vote) & to lower the maximum state income tax rate from 10% to 7% (passed with 57% of vote). Democrats opposed but Amendments & lost. 2/6
Instead of accepting defeat & will of voter NC Dems decided to sue. Democrats have a narrow 4-3 majority on NC Supreme Court but Democrat Jimmy Ervin is up for re-election in 2022 & does not want to be the vote to raise taxes & overturn will of voters before his re-election. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28, 2021
Oregon passed a Congressional map today. It's a 5-1 Dem gerrymander with 4 districts containing, or bordering, the pizza'd city of Portland. Thread on all 6 districts below, and check out our full analysis here: rrhelections.com/index.php/2021… (1/9)
OR-1 (D+12-->D+16) is still based in western Portland and suburban Washington County, but drops some rural conservative areas and is now even safer for Suzanne Bonamici.
Because the map double-crosses the Cascades, OR-2 (R+11-->R+13) becomes even more of a vote sink, losing the blue city of Bend and picking up red SW Oregon, which had made OR-4 competitive.
Read 9 tweets

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