Thread by @mikocryptonft

Here's an update on @PlayCrabada's #P2E economy. @P2EAnalytics is undergoing updates so back to excel!

A. Daily net inflation has ticked up to 0.44%. $TUS emission was flat at 1.73%, despite the looting points system implementation which encourages mining.

However, it could be too early to tell the points impact since I'm using averages. Burning from breeding has declined by 8 bps. Breeding activity is actually healthy though (see egg chart below), it just hasn't kept up with inflation.

B. $TUS holder count (players) continues to grow at 1.0%+ daily rate which is good.
C. Crab population continues to grow faster than players at 1.7% per day, so expect crab prices to continue to decline or at least remain flat.

I mentioned that breeding is actually healthy because eggs as a % of total population is 8% which is within historical range of 8.0-9.0%

A driver of $CRA value is the game revenue. Since inception, Crabada has earned $7.9 million, based on today's $TUS and $CRA prices:

Tavern fees: $600 thousand
Marketplace fees: $2.6 million
CRA Breeding fees: $4.7 million

The annualized revenue is $20+ million and growing fast

Revenue impacts $CRA pricing because the market looks at the "revenue multiple" to assess relative value of different projects. Revenue multiple = FDV ($600 million) / Annualized Revenue, which in this case is ~30x, low compared to the growth rate of the game

Tavern Guide: The cheapest way to play the game is to buy 1 crab and rent it out. Most rewarding are Bulks. Assuming crabs rent out 11 times a day, rewards are net of 10% tavern fee. If 1 crab is expensive for you, check out our partners @Craba_DAO for cheap entry!

Mining w/ MR Guide: The best choice are combinations that includes primes to benefit from the 10% bonus. MR is an estimate and not all team combinations are included so there could be better options! Analysis does not include gas fees which can materially impact profits.

Mining w/ no MR Guide: If you don't have time to reinforce, you can mine to lose. This generates more rewards than the Tavern assuming you can mine at least 5 time a day. Best bet is combo of cheap crabs + none-pure prime for the 10% bonus. Gas fees might make this attractive.

Breeding Guide: This uses the ABC loop method. ABCD is more optimal. I'm not factoring in mining/looting which improves ROI. Best bet changed from primes to craboids, no wonder their population is growing fast!

Breeding using the ABCD method results in lower ROI days for the initial investment. ABCD method assumes you buy two sets of parents to start off with.

Looting: Not all combinations are included here. Both options below have the same ROI. I assumed 2 mines and 8 loots given the point system.

Overall, the game economy is doing OK. It's at an expected trajectory for a mature game where there's inflation. What could make it better is increase in player growth and lower gas fees. It's going to be tough the next 2-3 weeks, but there's light at the end of the tunnel...

What will help is the launch of the @swimmer_network which will: i) reduce gas fees, ii) increase $TUS burn because it's the gas token and iii) enhance user experience. Additionally, the launch of the Battle Game should drive player growth and balance crab/TUS holder ratios.

Here's the dates to look forward to:

Swimmer Network Testnet (18 Apr 22')
Launch Crabada on Testnet (22 Apr 22')
Swimmer Network Launch (9 May 22')
The Great Crabada Migration (Idle-Game and Marketplace) (13 May 22')
Battle Game Mode Launch (15 May 22')

Not sure why some of the charts didn't show up. Here's the missing charts on breeding and looting. ABC Breeding:

ABCD Breeding:

Looting: