Back in 1989, Janet Abu-Lughod predicted that the era of Western hegemony would have been superseded by “a return to the relative balance of multiple centers exhibited in the 13th-century world system”.
🧵 on my #new article for @TheNatlInterest: nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/has-…
It might be too early to assess to what extent Abu-Lughod’s predictions hold true, but it does not seem far-fetched to claim that future generations will consider the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as one of the meaningful moments in the #shift of the power balance from West to East
#Rebalancing between major international powers has always been accompanied by massive and epoch-marking forms of #violence: our tragic present is, in this sense, destined to last in time. However, there are some #clear #differences in comparison to previous historical eras.
Besides demography: #climatechange, the impoverishment of biodiversity, and the disruption of natural habitats. These are not unpredictable outlier events, – or Taleb’s “black swans” – but tangible ongoing processes: each of them will play a huge role in redefining global orders
Yet, to date, climate-related concerns are far from being able to shape #global_orders.
Instead, the idea of “#spheres_of_influence”, i.e. “international formations that contain one nation (the influencer) that commands superior power over others”, continue to play the #key role
Over the past 70yrs, this doctrine, which warned external powers that US would not have tolerated the interference of any external power in “#American #affairs”, influenced much of policies implemented by Washington in "its" closest #sphere_of_influence. peoplesworld.org/article/washin…
dozens of governments in Central and South America have historically been #overthrown and/or #bombed by successive U.S. administrations also, if not above all, on the basis of such claim and mindset. miscellanynews.org/2021/04/07/opi…
#Cuba, which back in 1950 had the #5th #highest per capita income in the Western hemisphere, is possibly the most interesting example of how the concept of “sphere of influence” has been conceptualized and imposed in the #AmericanContinent. hir.harvard.edu/a-dilemma-in-p…
Particularly in the case of the U.S., – which has over 750 military bases in 80 world countries (that is, 85% of #all #overseas #military #bases) – the “spheres of influence” extend far beyond its continent.
A meaningful percentage of the #African and #Asian states or political leaders which, in recent decades, have tried to tackle such ascendancy were either militarily #attacked and #ousted, or #isolated and #boycotted.
It's a sort of pattern which has been consistently fueled by slogans that have often spoken to the “gut”—i.e. the instincts—of millions of people:
“it's the battle between #good_and_evil, “they hate us cause of #ourValues”, or, mutatis mutandis, “we're facing the end of history”
And yet, beside stressing the firm condemnation of any aggression against a foreign state, – be it Ukraine, Iraq or Yemen – it is necessary to #always #reject the #legitimacy of the #spheres of #influence, both “ours” and the ones of the “others”, whoever our “other” is.
On the one hand, this reminds us the need to embrace a #more #coherent #understanding of global politics, and, on the other, is a further confirm that the “Atlantic world order” is no longer #sustainable, in as much as it is increasingly resented/rejected by a vast % of humanity
This is also the reason why #Africa’s countries (1.2 billion people), #India (1.4 billion) and #China (1.4 billion) did not join the Western countries in imposing sanctions on #Russia over its criminal and #nefarious #invasion of #Ukraine.
The tortuous process of rapprochement btwn the 2 world’s most populous countries—confirmed by the visit of Chinese FM Wang Yi to NewDelhi on March 24—as well as #Iran’s alignment of interests with those of China, mirror 2 of the latest ex. of new raising geopolitical equilibria
..and the attempt to foster a “#selective #re_globalisation”, i.e. a macro-regional reconfiguration of world economy with the aim to #dilute the dominance of the US $, and to #mitigate the reciprocal sanctions imposed by leading economies on the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
While aware that the one unfolding in Ukraine is an #illegal/#immoral invasion, most Asian capitals regard the conflict, in the words of Indian analyst Shivshankar Menon, as a war “over the #European #security_order—#not an epochal #global conflagration” foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
More in general, political representatives of most of world population (not just “some autocratic countries”) are increasingly critical toward the global financial system (95% of global reserves are held in #WesternCurrencies) and require a #rethinking of international relations
Today, the most meaningful change is possibly the fact that a growing number of Western observers are finally becoming #aware of the #end of an “#order” which, in Andrew J. Bacevich’s words, “existed mostly in the minds of Western observers rather than the #real #world”.
In the real world, or the one that is taking shape, #coherence and “#whataboutism” are not the same. In other words, #the #problem #are #not #those who firmly condemn #all spheres of influence, all forms of “permanent security”, and all aggressions (be it Ukraine, Iraq or Yemen)
The problem are instead those who use clear and #harsh #terms #only when spheres of influence, geopolitical orders and wars touch #their_interests, and #cherry-pick what #outrages them.
#end
#ubuntu
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2) "Altre culture, altre civiltà hanno conosciuto qualcosa che alla storia vagamente assomiglia.."
a) Se non si conoscono gli storici degli "altri" non significa che non esistono o che sono stati ininfluenti.
b) Cosa ci dice la letteratura sulle culture?
3)"La libertà è il valore caratteristico più importante dell’Occidente".
...più importante del genere umano, e ha assunto il suo valore #universale grazie, in primis, a pionieri come Lourenço Mendonça, alla gente di Haiti, a giganti come Zera Yacob, ecc.
•in 2023🇮🇱intelligence indicated that Raisi was chosen as successor of Khamenei (source founded by🇺🇸gov.: )
•last February, "Iran International" (funded by🇸🇦) claimed that Raisi was chosen as 1 of 3 main figures designated by Khamenei to succeed himself.radiofarda.com/a/israeli-mili…
•If Raisi is dead, Khamenei’s son (M.Khamenei) might have open road to replace him.
•Presidency in🇮🇷mainly focus on domestic agencies & is quite secondary (hardly comparable to that of the Supreme leader).
•Raisi & M.Khamenei are largely unpopular in🇮🇷
•It’s true that Azerbaijan is 1 of the biggest arms dealer to🇮🇱& that only 1 (that 1) of the 3 helicopters flying through the fog crashed. But that’s not enough to draw conclusions, although the historical background is there for anyone willing to see it academia.edu/41523035/Whose…
In the coming days,🇮🇱's army will try to take control of #TzirFiladelfi (Egypt-Israel corridor) and will then "convince" many Palestinians in Rafah (which hosts 1,5 million people) to "self-expel" themselves to Egypt.
#Today—precisely 16 years ago—this happened in "free Gaza":🧵
Motaz Azaiza (which left Gaza today) and almost all the remaining Palestinian journalists have been evacuated (83+ were previously killed): there will be no footage of what will happen.
This mini-🧵ends with a fragment of this epochal tragedy, and an hint to the past:
Women/girls in Gaza are using tent scraps in place of period products: "Western feminists" said anything about this & the fact that 70% of those killed were women/kids?
Rape is a war crime: all cases involving Hamas must be #condemned as #atrocious. The same #must apply to the higher number of Palestinians who suffered rapes/sexual violence since 1948.
If this🧵was a book, its title would be:
“Also Palestinian women #matter”.
1/19
Due to social stigmatization, documentation of wartime rape is difficult, especially in more “traditional” societies.
Yet, rapes of Palestinian women/girls have been widely #documented, and also, at times, #justified.
2/19
During 1948—in Benny Morris’s words—“#many cases of #rape” & #mutilation of Palestinian women occurred, some as young as 14 y.o., as happened, among many other cases, in #Safsaf in Oct. 48: this also aimed at pushing families to leave
(my take on Morris:
)
When someone tells you that "this is #Israel-#Hamas war", and that "Israel gave back the Gaza strip to the Palestine people back in 2005 with nothing in return as a gesture of #peace", please consider to reply with my thread 🧵 1/7
"Since the 1st Qassam rocket fell on Israel in April 2001, 59 Israelis have been killed - and 4,717 Palestinians. The numbers don't lie [...] and this proportion is horrifying".
(article written in 2012, just 1 year after "Iron Dome"). 2/7 haaretz.com/opinion/2012-1…
#TheGuardian & #Haaretz showed that
"#Civilian proportion of deaths in the Gaza Strip is higher than that in #all world conflicts in 20th century [..] which found Israel was deliberately targeting residential blocks to cause mass civilian casualties" 3/7 theguardian.com/world/2023/dec…
Due to social stigmatization and the reluctance of the survivors to speak up, documentation of wartime rape is very difficult, especially in certain societies.
Yet, rapes of Palestinian women/girls have been widely documented, and also, at times, justified.