Back in 1989, Janet Abu-Lughod predicted that the era of Western hegemony would have been superseded by “a return to the relative balance of multiple centers exhibited in the 13th-century world system”.
🧵 on my #new article for @TheNatlInterest: nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/has-…
It might be too early to assess to what extent Abu-Lughod’s predictions hold true, but it does not seem far-fetched to claim that future generations will consider the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as one of the meaningful moments in the #shift of the power balance from West to East
#Rebalancing between major international powers has always been accompanied by massive and epoch-marking forms of #violence: our tragic present is, in this sense, destined to last in time. However, there are some #clear #differences in comparison to previous historical eras.
Besides demography: #climatechange, the impoverishment of biodiversity, and the disruption of natural habitats. These are not unpredictable outlier events, – or Taleb’s “black swans” – but tangible ongoing processes: each of them will play a huge role in redefining global orders
Yet, to date, climate-related concerns are far from being able to shape #global_orders.
Instead, the idea of “#spheres_of_influence”, i.e. “international formations that contain one nation (the influencer) that commands superior power over others”, continue to play the #key role
Over the past 70yrs, this doctrine, which warned external powers that US would not have tolerated the interference of any external power in “#American #affairs”, influenced much of policies implemented by Washington in "its" closest #sphere_of_influence. peoplesworld.org/article/washin…
dozens of governments in Central and South America have historically been #overthrown and/or #bombed by successive U.S. administrations also, if not above all, on the basis of such claim and mindset. miscellanynews.org/2021/04/07/opi…
#Cuba, which back in 1950 had the #5th #highest per capita income in the Western hemisphere, is possibly the most interesting example of how the concept of “sphere of influence” has been conceptualized and imposed in the #AmericanContinent. hir.harvard.edu/a-dilemma-in-p…
Particularly in the case of the U.S., – which has over 750 military bases in 80 world countries (that is, 85% of #all #overseas #military #bases) – the “spheres of influence” extend far beyond its continent.
A meaningful percentage of the #African and #Asian states or political leaders which, in recent decades, have tried to tackle such ascendancy were either militarily #attacked and #ousted, or #isolated and #boycotted.
It's a sort of pattern which has been consistently fueled by slogans that have often spoken to the “gut”—i.e. the instincts—of millions of people:
“it's the battle between #good_and_evil, “they hate us cause of #ourValues”, or, mutatis mutandis, “we're facing the end of history”
And yet, beside stressing the firm condemnation of any aggression against a foreign state, – be it Ukraine, Iraq or Yemen – it is necessary to #always #reject the #legitimacy of the #spheres of #influence, both “ours” and the ones of the “others”, whoever our “other” is.
On the one hand, this reminds us the need to embrace a #more #coherent #understanding of global politics, and, on the other, is a further confirm that the “Atlantic world order” is no longer #sustainable, in as much as it is increasingly resented/rejected by a vast % of humanity
This is also the reason why #Africa’s countries (1.2 billion people), #India (1.4 billion) and #China (1.4 billion) did not join the Western countries in imposing sanctions on #Russia over its criminal and #nefarious #invasion of #Ukraine.
The tortuous process of rapprochement btwn the 2 world’s most populous countries—confirmed by the visit of Chinese FM Wang Yi to NewDelhi on March 24—as well as #Iran’s alignment of interests with those of China, mirror 2 of the latest ex. of new raising geopolitical equilibria
..and the attempt to foster a “#selective #re_globalisation”, i.e. a macro-regional reconfiguration of world economy with the aim to #dilute the dominance of the US $, and to #mitigate the reciprocal sanctions imposed by leading economies on the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
While aware that the one unfolding in Ukraine is an #illegal/#immoral invasion, most Asian capitals regard the conflict, in the words of Indian analyst Shivshankar Menon, as a war “over the #European #security_order—#not an epochal #global conflagration” foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
More in general, political representatives of most of world population (not just “some autocratic countries”) are increasingly critical toward the global financial system (95% of global reserves are held in #WesternCurrencies) and require a #rethinking of international relations
Today, the most meaningful change is possibly the fact that a growing number of Western observers are finally becoming #aware of the #end of an “#order” which, in Andrew J. Bacevich’s words, “existed mostly in the minds of Western observers rather than the #real #world”.
In the real world, or the one that is taking shape, #coherence and “#whataboutism” are not the same. In other words, #the #problem #are #not #those who firmly condemn #all spheres of influence, all forms of “permanent security”, and all aggressions (be it Ukraine, Iraq or Yemen)
The problem are instead those who use clear and #harsh #terms #only when spheres of influence, geopolitical orders and wars touch #their_interests, and #cherry-pick what #outrages them.
#end
#ubuntu
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•in 2023🇮🇱intelligence indicated that Raisi was chosen as successor of Khamenei (source founded by🇺🇸gov.: )
•last February, "Iran International" (funded by🇸🇦) claimed that Raisi was chosen as 1 of 3 main figures designated by Khamenei to succeed himself.radiofarda.com/a/israeli-mili…
•If Raisi is dead, Khamenei’s son (M.Khamenei) might have open road to replace him.
•Presidency in🇮🇷mainly focus on domestic agencies & is quite secondary (hardly comparable to that of the Supreme leader).
•Raisi & M.Khamenei are largely unpopular in🇮🇷
•It’s true that Azerbaijan is 1 of the biggest arms dealer to🇮🇱& that only 1 (that 1) of the 3 helicopters flying through the fog crashed. But that’s not enough to draw conclusions, although the historical background is there for anyone willing to see it academia.edu/41523035/Whose…
In the coming days,🇮🇱's army will try to take control of #TzirFiladelfi (Egypt-Israel corridor) and will then "convince" many Palestinians in Rafah (which hosts 1,5 million people) to "self-expel" themselves to Egypt.
#Today—precisely 16 years ago—this happened in "free Gaza":🧵
Motaz Azaiza (which left Gaza today) and almost all the remaining Palestinian journalists have been evacuated (83+ were previously killed): there will be no footage of what will happen.
This mini-🧵ends with a fragment of this epochal tragedy, and an hint to the past:
Women/girls in Gaza are using tent scraps in place of period products: "Western feminists" said anything about this & the fact that 70% of those killed were women/kids?
Rape is a war crime: all cases involving Hamas must be #condemned as #atrocious. The same #must apply to the higher number of Palestinians who suffered rapes/sexual violence since 1948.
If this🧵was a book, its title would be:
“Also Palestinian women #matter”.
1/19
Due to social stigmatization, documentation of wartime rape is difficult, especially in more “traditional” societies.
Yet, rapes of Palestinian women/girls have been widely #documented, and also, at times, #justified.
2/19
During 1948—in Benny Morris’s words—“#many cases of #rape” & #mutilation of Palestinian women occurred, some as young as 14 y.o., as happened, among many other cases, in #Safsaf in Oct. 48: this also aimed at pushing families to leave
(my take on Morris:
)
When someone tells you that "this is #Israel-#Hamas war", and that "Israel gave back the Gaza strip to the Palestine people back in 2005 with nothing in return as a gesture of #peace", please consider to reply with my thread 🧵 1/7
"Since the 1st Qassam rocket fell on Israel in April 2001, 59 Israelis have been killed - and 4,717 Palestinians. The numbers don't lie [...] and this proportion is horrifying".
(article written in 2012, just 1 year after "Iron Dome"). 2/7 haaretz.com/opinion/2012-1…
#TheGuardian & #Haaretz showed that
"#Civilian proportion of deaths in the Gaza Strip is higher than that in #all world conflicts in 20th century [..] which found Israel was deliberately targeting residential blocks to cause mass civilian casualties" 3/7 theguardian.com/world/2023/dec…
Due to social stigmatization and the reluctance of the survivors to speak up, documentation of wartime rape is very difficult, especially in certain societies.
Yet, rapes of Palestinian women/girls have been widely documented, and also, at times, justified.
#NargesMohammadi won the Nobel: it's great news.
But there're so many women in other MENA countries which are brutalized also thanks to US/Eu’s direct role: yet, they’re #invisible in the West.
This 🧵is for Palestinian women, and agst instrumentalization for self-interests. 1/9
Where are Eurocentric feminists when it’s not about structural violence against women in countries which are geopolitically useful to them, and which are financially supported by them?
#PetiteBourgeoise 2/9
A few days ago, Israeli ambassador at the UN was (once more) instrumentalizing Iranian women (with many in European countries writing "bravo"), despite the fact that the State he represents has been exerting structural forms of violence over Palestinian women for 75 years. 3/9