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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Apr 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
A brief thread on the political economy of the war and why what has happened since the invasion has also destroyed any strategy the Russians might have had. Clearly the Putin government miscalculated on what sanctions Russia will face.
Maybe a greater miscalculation was about how the invasion would basically politically transform Ukraine in NATO/EU eyes to such a degree that they will basically make sure Ukraine gets what it needs economically to function, freeing Ukraine up to fight the war.
Ukraine is now asking for their economy to be kept afloat as they fight the war, and so far the signs (above) are they will get what they need. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Ukrainian finance minister coming to the US next week to negotiate the needed economic support. Pretty sure the package he receives will be generous. reuters.com/world/ukraines…
Much of the impetus to keep the Ukrainian economy functioning, not just providing military aid, comes because of the political fallout from the deliberate Russian policy of committing mass war crimes. This has politically meant that NATO/EU countries can up their support.
Means that Ukraine can fight the war with vry different economic concerns than Russia. A big advantage. Putin has to worry about keeping the Russians happy after promising easy victories. Ukraine has a population already sacrificing hugely, and who will get major economic support

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 23
OK, sent out this free piece on the details of the Trump "final" plan for Ukraine that has been seen by Axios. The 5 points have basically been dictated by Putin. They set up a process which would allow Russia to expand into all of its neighbors. Image
No one should be shocked by this. Its what Trump has been saying for years. The shocking thing is that people fooled themselves that we would not reach this point. The future of freedom and democracy in Europe is entirely in Europe's hands. I hope Europe does not blow it.
Btw, Putin saying right after this that he is now willing to freeze the war along the present front line and negotiate is almost certainly coordinated action with Trump to try and force this terrible deal down Ukraine’s and Europe’s throats
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 4
Trump is out of his depth in this trade war. He clearly didnt expect this Chinese reaction--and is accusing them of panicking. Ahhh--Projection.... Image
The tragedy for the USA (self-inflicted) is that Trump seems to be going out of his way to strengthen China's international position. President Xi must be stunned as his good luck to be faced by such a fool--as I wrote in this piece today.
More Trump panic (a real-time meltdown is happening). Having put in place all the conditions for a major recession--he's now begging the Fed to cut interest rates and throw him a lifeline. Maybe he should ask the Chinese to stop panicking and help. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 25
Pretty sure what we have seen today is Trump and Putin acting as allies to betray Ukraine and isolate Europe. What seems to have happened is this.
1) The US got Ukraine to agree a Black Sea ceasefire on the idea that if Rus broke it, the US would put more sanctions on Rus.
2) Trump then turn around and agreed sanctions relief with Russia as part of the Black Sea Ceasefire--which Ukraine would not have known (I imagine)

3) Ukraine is now in a box. If it rejects the US deal with Russia, the US can say Ukraine is the bad guy and end all sanctions.
4) If Ukraine keeps to the deal--Russia gets important relief and a significant advantage it did not have.

5) Only European states can help Ukraine now--but they need to be active and fast.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 7
I do not think people realize how comprehensive the Trump Administration is being in its attempts to help Putin kill Ukrainians. I have it on an excellent source that Ukrainian UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off.
This should be a chilling warning for the rest of Europe. If the US can help Putin kill Ukrainians today, the US can help Putin kill lots of other Europeans tomorrow.
And the US is depriving the Ukrainians not only of weapons, but also medical supplies. The US is now making it more likely that wounded Ukrainians die.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 15
The full understanding of just how Trump is now allied with Putin is dawning on people. Zelensky calls for a European army as the only way to defend the continent and states clearly that the USA can’t be trusted. theguardian.com/world/live/202…
The Poles seem to be saying much the same thing. Europe needs to look after itself. Image
People who tried to talk around Vance's speech yesterday are denying the truth. Washington is trying to legitimize right-wing authoritarianism across Europe (think Orbanizing the continent). It would be the end of democracy. I pray Vance's move backfires.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 12
Hi All, just released this piece on the Trump plan for Ukraine as outlined by Secdef Hegseth. Guess what, its the same bad plan for Ukraine that Trump people have outlined since last summer (arguably worse). Putin gets major concessions before the talks even start. Image
Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.
As the piece makes clear, the formal position of the US government is now that the sovereign and legally recognised territory of a democratic friend, is to be handed over to the control of a dictatorship.
Read 5 tweets

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