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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Apr 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
A brief thread on the political economy of the war and why what has happened since the invasion has also destroyed any strategy the Russians might have had. Clearly the Putin government miscalculated on what sanctions Russia will face.
Maybe a greater miscalculation was about how the invasion would basically politically transform Ukraine in NATO/EU eyes to such a degree that they will basically make sure Ukraine gets what it needs economically to function, freeing Ukraine up to fight the war.
Ukraine is now asking for their economy to be kept afloat as they fight the war, and so far the signs (above) are they will get what they need. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Ukrainian finance minister coming to the US next week to negotiate the needed economic support. Pretty sure the package he receives will be generous. reuters.com/world/ukraines…
Much of the impetus to keep the Ukrainian economy functioning, not just providing military aid, comes because of the political fallout from the deliberate Russian policy of committing mass war crimes. This has politically meant that NATO/EU countries can up their support.
Means that Ukraine can fight the war with vry different economic concerns than Russia. A big advantage. Putin has to worry about keeping the Russians happy after promising easy victories. Ukraine has a population already sacrificing hugely, and who will get major economic support

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 24
Hi Everyone, just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Just wanted to start with a word of thanks. Woke up today and discovered that my s-stak now has more than 50000 subscribers, which is rather astonishing. So thank you! Image
Subscribers come from all but 10 countries in the world (if anyone can get someone from Greenland to sign up). It has a truly international reach, with more than 1000 subscribers from India and approaching 500 from Nigeria for instance. Darkness of red is number of subscribers Image
As for the update. It starts with the big decision this week to allow Ukraine to make ranged strikes into Russia with US and EUropean systems--which while desperately needed, looks to be rather limited so far. On the other hand, Putin threats on the subject have once again seemed to lose some to loose their minds.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 20
Which calls have I gotten wrong on the war @Dominic2306 ? You were the one who wanted to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in 2022 as it had no chance. I will take you through my positions.
1) In January 2022 I wrote that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a catastrophe, would not be over soon and that Ukraine would fight and Russia was an overrated power. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…Image
Then, when Russia did invade, and it did go wrong, I said exactly that, that Russian maximalist war aims were a failure and by that standard they cannot win the war (and they are not winning the war by that standard). Btw, you were the one who was arguing Ukraine had no chance.
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Nov 13
Good lord, an outright Putin apologist is named to be head of US national intelligence
Good lord 2, Matt Gaetz as Attorney General. The GOP seems hellbent on turning the US Government over to Russia.
Do any Republican Senators have a backbone? Any?
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 27
Good Morning Everyone in North America. Today is the day that The Strategists (my latest book) is released--and you can start reading it now. Its the story of how Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, Mussolini and Hitler were formed as strategists, and from that how they fought WWII. penguinrandomhouse.com/books/623808/t…
Its been widely and positively reviewed (with more to come) with my favorite endorsement from Margaret Atwood. If you want to get a flavor of the book, I was able to release a 3000 word excerpt on Churchill's experiences on the Western Front in 1915-16 phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-strategi…
Image
I really hope you enjoy it! And though the book has only been available for a few hours in the USA, it already has 2 5-star reviews on Amazon. My family has been up early! Image
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 19
Worth noting that President Zelensky said openly last night that one of the Ukrainian strategic aims was to create a buffer zone inside Russia to provide protection to Ukraine (and also inevitably to draw Russian forces to it). It shows how the early analysis of this offensive was dreadful. edition.cnn.com/2024/08/18/eur…
This offensive was passed of as a wasteful raid--but so far the Ukrainians have achieved a number of strategic aims, and are well on their way to establishing a large buffer, as Ive bee saying for ten days. I described it in my last two weekend updates.
In this podcast which @MBielieskov and I recorded 10 days ago, the idea of creating a salient was discussed in detail. open.substack.com/pub/phillipspo…
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 5
The @CSIS Interpret China resource has assembled a number of very interesting sources on how the Chinese state is thinking about and reacting to the Russo-Ukraine War. It is a really helpful one-stop shop that anyone interested in the subject should examine.interpret.csis.org
One report. by a leading Chinese scholar, talks about how Russia is trying to recalibrate its global relationships, and how the Chinese-Russian alliance, while strong, is no longer the "limitless" partnerships that was proclaimed before the invasion. interpret.csis.org/translations/t…
Another really interesting Chinese analysis looks at 2024, and argues that after the US election, there might be a push for a peace deal. Also tries to think about the future development of warfare, and how China can adjust to a battlefield full of masses of cheap UAVs interpret.csis.org/translations/a…
Read 5 tweets

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