Thread by @DonParzival

Time for a @moonbirds_xyz prediction and #NFT market analysis from a liquidity pov.

We will be touching on:

1. Where does NFT market liquidity come from? Note that the breakdown of each category does not indicate networth.

2. Thoughts on #moonbirds

3. Preferred entry price

@moonbirds_xyz 1. Collectors - usually the final stop for NFTs, they pay for art, quality, & hardly sell. They’re also a strong supporter of collections & creators. Many have businesses and are prob fine if crypto goes to 0
Notable @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee 2. Whale Collectors - bet hard & heavy, purchasing a mix of investment & collector pieces. Similar to pure collectors, they heavily support blue-chip projects & bet on creators. They occasionally sell. Usually in high $ collections. E.g. - @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD 3. Investors - Betting across collections, and returns is the name of the game. Low-cost projects are less attractive as less capital can be deployed. Concentrated in blue chips, lower “new creator” bets. Usually willing to sell for the right price. E.g. Funds, DAOs, Whales

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD 4. Crypto native - The largest population of the market. Net-worth & bet sizing heavily depends on prior “flips” & “plays”. Estimates on bet sizing per wallet (i.e how much they are willing to bet on an NFT)

The numbers below are not accurate estimates. In-depth analysis otw.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD ~100k: 1-3 eth
~50k: 5-10 eth
~10k: 15-30eth
~2k: 30+eth
~1k: 50+eth

Estimates are based on Yuga / Rtfkt / Churu ecosystems, NFT sales, & purchases across the price spectrum. Further analysis with Dune / Nansen / Analytics will be coming soon.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD 5. Retail - Those that survive the #Crypto markets & #SolanaNFT pvp, making enough to enter eth NFTs. Once they’ve earned their badge of honor “got rugged” and learn, becoming “predicted & avoided multiple rugs”, they become crypto natives.

FYI: There are great projects on Sol.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD Ultimately, the NFT market is largely a poker table. Where stakes keep increasing as one grows from being an NFT flipper into an investor.

Still, the biggest winners are always the project creators. Those who do Due Diligence and are careful with betting tend to win over time.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD One metric I use is “has the team seen this kind of money before”. If the answer is no, be very careful. If the answer is yes, how much, what did they do with it, and how did they utilize these funds. Also, who were the prior investors in their startups? What was the outcome?

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD Key qns for NFT drops: Are they able to drive increased interest in the NFT space from retail / crypto natives / whales? Does the team have a strong track record of execution? Who are the prolific investors & backers of this project? Am I willing to lose this amount of ETH? Etc.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD Now on to #moonbirds. It looks like an interesting project and I will just present some facts. A quick check using historical performance, recognize that the founder's last startup was almost acquired for 60m which was turned down, and the valuation dropped to 0.5m thereafter.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD Moonbirds will raise 75m off the bat. In classic venture capital, this would value their “seed”/ “series A” at 300m assuming it's a 25% equity round. If it's 100% "equity", we are looking at a 150m val at ~5E floor

Note - this is equivalent to the expected next unicorns in web2.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD Let's do a quick look at the key value drivers for Moonbirds.

1. NFT Staking for Unknown Rewards
- What rewards? TBA
- Backers are unknown at the moment -> potential catalysts. Do remember the other hype-driven NFT projects. Moonbirds seems different but only time will tell.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD 2. Access to Proof Collective
So far they have done 2 collaborations
a) Grails is at 2.1 eth floor with < 3 sales/day since launch (Low Liquidity)
b) Emotes is at 0.4 eth floor similarly with < 3 sales/day since launch (Low Liquidity)

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD c) Events have not been executed yet & uncertain amount of alpha (spoke to some proof collective members, alpha varies)
-> What sustains their floor price - Uncertain, have not done a deep dive into whether it's actual demand or wash trading. Holders are whales though.

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD 3. Metaverse project
- At this point, almost every NFT project comes with a Metaverse drop
- Some notable examples will be @punk6529's open metaverse project. It's free to participate, seems to have strong community participation & engagement

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD @punk6529 I like the Moonbirds team's openness about "please do not overhype this project", which has had a reverse effect, further amplifying hype. However, it is good to manage expectations and make sure further NFT disasters do not occur.
- Key metaverse to watch: @yugalabs #otherside

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD @punk6529 @yugalabs Where do I think the floor price will rest? I will not repeat the analysis from these 2 folks - in my opinion, an entry price target of <4eth is optimal. Likely 5-6+ floor

For a more "bullish" view on Moonbirds -> reference these 2 twitter threads by @praetor_eth and @YoJurmy

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD @punk6529 @yugalabs @praetor_eth @YoJurmy @YoJurmy

https://twitter.com/yojurmy/status/1513913303688429571?s=21&t=q8W5SBvJQDLQbgLJfqf4Lw

@praetor_eth

https://twitter.com/praetor_eth/status/1512205037849784320?s=20&t=ne0CEcHiW63MW7Rb-LgYFQ

@moonbirds_xyz @CozomoMedici @takashipom @Arthur_0x @WhaleShark_Pro @garyvee @greatmando_nft @luggisdoteth @DrJayDD @punk6529 @yugalabs @praetor_eth @YoJurmy I hope you found this thread useful. As long as it may be.

Follow me @DonParzival for market deep dives and insights.

If you've enjoyed the thread, do like and retweet the first tweet.

Live long & prosper🖖🏼

https://twitter.com/DonParzival/status/1515243867267772423?s=20&t=KQGBc-p1m8y0kJg9r_G12Q

Update - soooo moonbirds went crazier than expected, lowest trading was 6-7 eth, bots sweeped faster than I sweep my room floor on busy days.

Snagged this beauty. Thank you to the seller!

Will possibly upsize my position in the coming days.