Alex Luck Profile picture
Apr 16 4 tweets 1 min read
Lets just point out re #Zeitenwende that apart from the very low bar of trying to clothe our soldiers a little bit earlier and provide them with body armor, not a single relevant contract has been signed yet. Not. One. That includes F-35, CH-53 replacement, more IFV etc.
Mind you these things normally take time, sure. It's been less than two months since the big announcements. But key issue is, none of these procurements are new either. They were all as inevitable as Thanos long before a professed realisation that something needs to change.
Which leaves us with those 100 bln. Again, the figure didnt come out of nowhere. It was based on all procurements Bundeswehr over the last decade or so accumulated. So if one Euro out of that budget is going somewhere not the military, again you have to wonder as to the point.
So if you're asking now "Alex, whats your bloody point."...well it is we are still at the beginning of a promised process, no significant budget has been committed yet. Until it is, I consider any promises made worth about as much as A4 fax compliant paper they are written on.

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More from @AlexLuck9

Apr 18
The problem with the Moskva-sinking is that far too many unknowns remain and its difficult, if not impossible at this stage to draw any meaningful conclusions, tactical or otherwise. A few aspects below:
As I touched upon, most of the damage seemingly concentrated amidship is plausible for a successful attack with radar-guided antiship missiles. Such ordnance will home in on the strongest part of a radar return, that is typically the centre part of a hull.
Nevertheless we have at best circumstantial evidence that the ship was hit by the Neptune missiles. Mind you, I think its the most plausible. But the damage marks remain a little ambiguous.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 16
A German politician of Germany after WW2 thinks a military resolution to conflict is not possible. Just shoot me in my face right fucking now. Image
These people are up so deep their own ass, they wouldnt be able to tell you the time of the day if you asked them for it.
This is exactly why I keep saying Germany needs to be shamed and ostracized every time they are being obstructionist to assisting a country defending against a clear cut war of aggression. There is no other way to enact change. The sickness needs to be killed root and branch.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 4
If Ukraine is to take back occupied territory, they by definition need "offensive" weaponry. The term itself is so silly, it borders on misinformation, given every piece of weaponry can (or rather has to) be used for defensive or offensive ops.
I mean christ on a stick, Bundeswehr, one of the most "defensive" military forces post WW2 was equipped with MBT for this reason straight away.
Someone needs to cc this statement to the Japanese, because they clearly need to scrap all their Type 74, Type 90 and Type 10 MBT, as they obviously are not in keeping with the nature of the JSDF.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
A potentially very interesting find here of downed Russian aviation.
Correct identification of the engine would dramatically narrow probable aircraft. Its basically a bunch of airliners, the Il-76, and Mig-31 and Su-47. Suffice to say the latter seem improbable to impossible. Wait and see.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
"Welt" via "Focus": Rheinmetall until March 25 didnt receive any response from German DoD on arms delivery suggestions submitted February 28. Included among other things 100 Marder IFV, proposal to deliver to Bundeswehr as like for like aiding Ukraine.

focus.de/politik/auslan…
The original reporting (paywalled) here. Lambrecht on the phone to Ukrainian MinDef Reznikov denied the request and pointed at Chancellor Scholz for any further decisions.

welt.de/politik/auslan…
Whichever way we flip this, what seems apparent more than anything is a complete lack of interest from the German side to engage in proactive measures aiding Ukraine. Instead fingers are pointed in some sort of bureaucratic circle obstructing and delaying any meaningful steps.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
German Foreign Minister on the Bucha-massacre. Vague, remains to be seen what comes of "increased support in defence". As per an earlier tweet the ones to watch will be Scholz and Lambrecht I assume.
I just go and assume Scholz will make a timely statement on the matter. The last tweet from the Chancellor's account here was on German sustainable steel production. 🤷‍♂️
The statement by Scholz is out now. It is pretty much as pathetic as I assumed. Asks for an independent (!) documentation of atrocities by international organisations and for Russia to agree to an immediate cease fire.

Read 4 tweets

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