Latest wastewater data for #SK communities was released earlier today. It's NOT good.

Let's work through what has been going on over the last couple of weeks as BA.2 has taken complete hold across Saskatchewan.

Short 🧵 - here we go. (1/7)
Regina & Saskatoon have seen HUGE increases in wastewater viral burden since early April. It's all driven by the more contagious BA.2 Omicron variant.

@LaurenPelley tweeted last week as Saskatoon's viral burden increased an astonishing *742%*. (2/7)

As of Apr 13, Saskatoon's viral burden has increased by yet another 25%, setting a new historic record once again. Nuts.

Viral burdens are TRIPLE that of the worse levels seen with Delta last Fall. It's all BA.2 - 99.3% now. The tiny 0.7% remaining is BA.1. (3/7)
Regina isn't in great shape either.

Wastewater levels are rising again and are nearly at the highest levels seen early in 2022 when BA.1 was surging.

We expect to see these viral burdens increase for some time in Regina before they level off & trend downwards. (4/7)
Prince Albert, a smaller #SK city, is not seeing explosive growth with BA.2 as yet, even though its wastewater is ~99% BA.2 right now.

With BA.1 Regina & Saskatoon were hit first, followed by smaller regional centers. We expect this to continue with BA.2 in coming weeks. (5/7)
North Battleford, another small #SK city, is also holding steady.

BA.2 is 98.4% of the viral burden in the wastewater at present. Viral load levels right now are modest. (6/7)
As with #SK's initial BA.1 surge, we are seeing the impacts of BA.2 occurring first in Regina & Saskatoon, followed by regional centers & rural #SK.

The impact on #SK hospitals remains to be seen, but we expect another surge like in Ontario & Quebec, unfortunately.

(/end)

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More from @awong37

Mar 3
Between February 1-26, 143 Saskatchewan citizens have died from #COVID19, despite Omicron being "less severe".

That's an INSANELY high number.

Saskatchewan's most deadly month thus far was October 2021, when 156 people died during our horrific Delta wave. /1
As highlighted by @DrKyle, Saskatchewan's death rate from #COVID19 is more than DOUBLE that of the 2nd highest province, Manitoba.

No province is even remotely close in terms of deaths per capita at this point with Omicron. So embarrassingly bad. /2

With 2 days left, February 2022 might not technically be Saskatchewan's deadliest month during this pandemic, but remember... there's only 28 days in February vs 31 days in October.

If you pro-rate 5.5 deaths per day (February 2022's deaths per day) x 31 days? *170* deaths. /3
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28
Hi, Saskatchewan.

Though @SKGov has now dropped all #COVID19 protections & mandates, sadly, COVID is NOT over.

#SK hospitals & ICUs remain packed.

Patients are being admitted, and dying, tragocally, eacn and every day.

A short 🧵 below for my fellow Saskatchewanians. /1
Please, be mindful of our medically vulnerable, kids under 5 who can't be vaccinated, the elderly & frail. Those who will and already face long COVID.

Respect their health and their right to live their lives as fully as possible in a manner that is safe & low-risk. /2
If your immediate response for those who are vulnerable to or anxious of COVID is, "well, just stay home"?

Remember how you felt when "others" said the same to you about mask mandates or proof-of-vaccine programs.

Let's end the divisiveness. Let's do things TOGETHER, safely. /3
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24
Weekly Saskatchewan COVID-19 data for Feb 13-19.

KEY POINTS:
- 37 deaths over 7 days. 1 b/w 20-39, all others >= 40
- Hospitalizations & ICU admissions decreasing (phew)
- Weekly test positivity 14.4% (last wk ~20%)
- ALL Omicron (no breakdown of BA.1 vs BA.2)

Brief 🧵 /1
Let's start with key data around hospitalizations & ICU admissions.

Week-by-week hospitalizations down 9% to 372, ICU down 18% to 27. Slowly coming down, thankfully.

Of those with known COVID status, 42% in hospital/ICU "due to COVID", 58% "incidental". /2
We can see that overall hospital admissions per day definitely decreasing now across all regions of Saskatchewan, but it's a relatively slow decrease, likely driven by limited protections we have in place provincially.

Still, this is reassuring and encouraging. /3
Read 15 tweets
Feb 22
Saskatchewan #COVID19 wastewater data released today for 4 #SK communities.

Both Saskatoon & Regina showing significant INCREASES in viral load week over week. Discouraging.

Reasons for increase unclear at this time. BA.2 driven?

Brief 🧵 to review #SK wastewater data. /1
Let's start with Regina.

@UofRegina wastewater analysis shows rebounding viral load levels week-over-week, suggestive of ongoing high rates of viral transmission in community.

BA.1 remains dominant but 18% BA.2 reported too. We expect BA.2 to dominate in coming days. /2 Image
Also, note that @UofRegina plot is time-lagged by 13 days, as the most recent analysis comes from the time period b/w Feb 6-12 inclusive.

So presumably proportion of BA.2 in Regina is higher now, just don't know how much higher. /3
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
"Hi Alex, what's BA.2? Is it a little bad or is it REALLY bad?"

BA.2 is a sub-lineage of Omicron. The 'original' lineage of Omicron is designated as BA.1 & remains the dominant strain circulating in most parts of Canada currently.

A brief 🧵 of what we know thus far. /1
BA.1 & BA.2 are both classified by @WHO as Omicron, but are distinct viruses. See the phylogenetic diagram below (thx @kallmemeg).

BA.2 has over 25 mutations that differentiate it vs BA.1.

Many questions still exist around how similar BA.1 & BA.2 are clinically. /2
Danish pre-print data comparing transmission of BA.1 vs BA.2 in household settings suggests BA.2 IS more transmissible than BA.1.

BA.2 also LIKELY possess more immune-evasive properties vs BA.1 that could reduce vaccine efficacy. /3

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 20 tweets
Feb 11
Great @SaskHealth Town Hall last PM re: #COVID19 in Saskatchewan. Key points:

- Community MAY have peaked w/ Omicron.
- Non-ICU/ICU numbers STILL rising
- #SK non-ICU system capacity MAXED OUT.
- Relaxed public health measures in #SK = LONGER & MORE SEVERE Omicron wave

🧵 /1
Let's start w/ cases, non-ICU & ICU COVID patients, & deaths.

CASES (blue line) are falling. This may be artificial to degree given limited PCR testing in #SK.

HOSPITALIZED (non-ICU) patients (light green 'shade') are at HIGHEST LEVELS of pandemic, now exceeding Delta. /2
ICU patients (dark green 'shade') are rising but nowhere near levels seen w/ Delta when #SK had to fly patients to Ontario.

DEATHS (red line) are rising gradually with Omicron but remain considerably lower than #SK's Delta peak. /3
Read 21 tweets

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