Yesterday's #Netflix sub loss marks the end of streaming's 2nd chapter.
Chapter I: Netflix disrupts TV
Ch. II: TV fights back and claws back market share
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Ch. III: TV eats its own profits... hurting Netflix isn't a biz model... time to find one...
👇 3 chapters 3 charts...
Chapter I: TV goes from ~complete penetration of the country to just above 50% in a decade thanks to Netflix.
Chapter II: The TV giants wise up and launch Netflix competitors. Netflix, the new Blockbuster as it were, laughs them off... oops. Netflix owns less than a third (and shrinking) of the industry it created.
Chapter III: Yes, they weakened Netflix... but at what cost? Each of Netflix's competitors now faces 2 existential challenges: retention and monetization. Will they be able to prevent churn? Will they be able to charge more?
The implications?
- Get ready to see an all out war for retention and monetization >> prices are going up, up, up, will consumers bear it?
- Wall Street shifts from Subscribers to Customer Lifetime Value
- Growth Marketers are the new saviors of TV
- What else?
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The past 10 years of digital brands (media/commerce/etc) have been a fascinating journey that's come completely full circle.
Here are all of the cycles we've been through, year-by-year 👇👇👇
2005-2013+: Journalism is dead (esp local news), which was heavily reliant on classified ads. Why? Classified ads happen to be hyper-targeted, high-intent ads also known as "direct response". Facebook & Google do that too — more effectively, cheaply, and globally
2014: The Innovation Report.
Media industry reaction: 1. OK, it's no longer taboo to talk about this very obvious problem that has existed for the past ~decade. 2. In one of the biggest about faces ever, let's make this the *only* thing we talk about for the next decade!
. @businessbarista just asked me my "rules for interviewing" as a startup founder, so here they are...
1. Over index on values.
Our biggest mistakes were hiring people with great skills but whom we did not have strong values alignment with.
🧵
2. Every candidate is a "portfolio".
Any one person can learn about maximum 2 pieces of that portfolio. Ensure your team can learn about all relevant pieces across interviews — and ensure you have overlap (i.e. multiple POVs) on the most important parts of the portfolio.
3. I am generally tasked with interviewing the values fit / culture add portfolio element. My interview formula consists of 3 questions:
A) The past
B) The future
C) Why Antenna
Gives an unbelievable sense on what's pushing them from their current job and pulling them to you.