Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Apr 21, 2022 22 tweets 24 min read Read on X
🚨 STATE BY STATE: How much MORE will YOU pay if #AmRescuePlan subsidies AREN'T extended??
acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s…
ALABAMA: Tell @SenShelby & @SenTuberville that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~200K Alabamans to see premium hikes as high as $23,000/year.
acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
ALASKA: Tell @lisamurkowski & @SenDanSullivan that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~20K Alaskans to see premium hikes as high as $30,000/year. That's not a typo.
acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
ARIZONA: Remind @SenMarkKelly & @SenatorSinema that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~190K Arizonans will see premium hikes as high as $11,000/year. Image
ARKANSAS: Tell @SenTomCotton & @JohnBoozman that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~80K Arkansans to see premium hikes as high as $13,000/year. That's not a typo.
acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
CALIFORNIA: Remind @SenAlexPadilla &
@SenFeinstein that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~1.7 MILLION Californians will see premium hikes as high as $10,000/year. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
COLORADO: Remind @SenatorBennet & @SenatorHick that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~190K Coloradans will see premium hikes as high as $10,000/year. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
CONNECTICUT: Remind @ChrisMurphyCT & @SenBlumenthal that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~110K Nutmeggers will see premium hikes as high as $21,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
DELAWARE: Remind @ChrisCoons & @SenatorCarper that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~30,000 Delawareans will see premium hikes as high as $21,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: I know she can't vote on it, but a reminder to @EleanorNorton that if #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~15,000 DC residents will see premium hikes as high as $8,000/year. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
FLORIDA: Tell @SenRickScott & @marcorubio
that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~2.7 MILLION Floridians to see premium hikes as high as $16,000/year.

That's not a typo.

acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
GEORGIA: Remind @SenatorWarnock & @SenOssoff that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~700,000 Georgians will see premium hikes as high as $14,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
HAWAII: Remind @SenBrianSchatz & Sen. @maziehirono that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~20,000 Hawaiians will see premium hikes as high as $17,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
IDAHO: Tell Sen. @MikeCrapo & @SenatorRisch that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~70,000 Idahoans to see premium hikes as high as $16,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
ILLINOIS: Remind @SenDuckworth & @SenatorDurbin that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~320,000 Illinoisans will see premium hikes as high as $25,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
INDIANA: Tell @SenToddYoung & @SenatorBraun that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~150,000 Hoosiers to see premium hikes as high as $14,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
IOWA: Tell @ChuckGrassley & @SenJoniErnst that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~70,000 Iowans to see premium hikes as high as $16,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
KANSAS: Tell @RogerMarshallMD & @JerryMoran that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~100,000 Kansans to see premium hikes as high as $18,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
KENTUCKY: Tell @LeaderMcConnell & @SenRandPaul that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~70,000 Kentuckians to see premium hikes as high as $14,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
LOUISIANA: Tell @SenJohnKennedy & @SenBillCassidy that their refusal to extend #AmRescuePlan subsidies will cause up to ~90,000 Louisianans to see premium hikes as high as $17,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
MAINE: Remind @SenAngusKing & @SenatorCollins that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~65,000 Mainers will see premium hikes as high as $16,000/year. That's not a typo. acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image
MARYLAND: Remind @ChrisVanHollen & @SenatorCardin that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended, up to ~180,000 Marylanders will see premium hikes as high as $11,000/year.
acasignups.net/22/04/21/new-s… Image

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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