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Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Apr 9

Why do so many Russian-speakers support Putin and this war? Still. Even in Ukraine (though their number is declining). And in other former satellites, or even Canada and the US. Why? How? WHY?

It’s not just the Kremlin propaganda. Let me tell you a deeply personal story. 1/n

When Russian missiles hit my hometown of Odesa on Feb 24, my mom jumped on the first bus out of the country. Her obvious destination was Moldova—because of geographical proximity, but also, because our family lived there until 1995 when we moved to Ukraine.

My mom has a network of friends there—Russian-speakers who, unlike our family, still live in Moldova. From the bus, she called her old friend—I’ll call her Tanya—who still lives in Moldova, and asked if she could spend the night—she could only find a hotel room for the day after.

Read 19 tweets

Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 24

Why Russia and Ukraine CANNOT reach a stable peaceful settlement. #PutinsWar will go on as long as the very last soldier is standing. The reason is that every point of negotiation is plagued with commitment problems. 1/n
#StopPutin #StandWithUkraine

I previously explained that the cause of this war is an information failure.

https://twitter.com/olga_chyzh/status/1502785540428644359?s=20&t=Kv7MDjQpdBb52ScOu89h4Q

The reason why a mutually respected peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine is NOT possible is what political scientists call a commitment problem.

Read 23 tweets

Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 22

People ask me everyday what they can do to help #StopPutin, so here are some ideas.

#StandWithUkraine

This war is taking place on two battlegrounds—physical and informational. Most of us cannot do much to help win the physical war, but each of us can do a lot to help win the informational war.

In is admittedly difficult to make inferences from surveys in authoritarian regimes, but according to one estimate, only about 14% of Russian people know what is actually going on. These 14% use VPNs to access independent media, travel abroad, and have friends/family abroad.

Read 17 tweets

Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 18

Here is how the West can #StopPutin without World War III. 1/n

#StandWithUkraine

Putin’s war in Ukraine is NOT just about Ukraine. Remember how it all started? Putin amassed his troops on the Ukrainian border, but what did he do next? He made a list of demands of NATO, not of Ukraine. Here is the list in case you missed that:
theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

The fact that he threatened NATO with an invasion of Ukraine, rather than threatening Ukraine, speaks volumes about his goals and intentions, as well as his view of the current conflict (“conflict” in the broad sense, not just #PutinsWar in Ukraine).

Read 27 tweets

Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 17

Why is Putin bombing maternity wards and shelters labeled “CHILDREN”? Why does he order reckless attacks on nuclear plants and major dams? Why are Russian soldiers mining humanitarian corridors?

Other than being the epitome of evil, of course. 1/n

#StandWithUkriane #StopPutin

War is the continuation of bargaining by other means. It is an opportunity to convey information to your opponent-information about your capabilities, resolve, and the ability to inflict costs.

One of the two causes of war is private information. Wars occur, because opponents disagree on a peaceful division of some prize. They disagree, because they lack accurate information on each other’s capabilities, resolve, and ability to inflict costs.

Read 9 tweets

Professor Olga Chyzh

@olga_chyzh

Mar 12

@POTUS

The West, especially @POTUS, has demonstrated a complete lack of the most basic understanding of crisis bargaining, brinkmanship, and deterrence. Here are the Cliff’s notes of Schelling, Fearon, and Powell with an application to #PutinsWar. This is taught in any Intro to IR. 1/n

War is a bargaining failure. The goal of crisis bargaining is to find the bargaining range-the division of pie that ALL parties prefer to fighting. Such a bargaining range always exists: war is costly-it decreases the size of the pie. The pie is always larger before the war start

So why do wars occur? There are two main reasons: private information and commitment problems. (There is really a third—issue indivisibility—it is more of a bargaining strategy than a cause of war, and it is subsumed by the others).

Read 22 tweets

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