Thread by @Usherwood

Late last year, I wondered whether UK was moving to a less-antagonistic approach to its EU relations, given failure of its previous high-stress model

Does this still hold?

1/

open.ac.uk/blogs/EUatOU/i…

I'd argued that going all Violet Elizabeth Bott [GIYF] wasn't sustainable in long-term, so shifting to language of trying to work things out together (even if that didn't produce results) both parked it and avoiding final commitment to WA/TCA

2/

You could see Truss's attendance at Council over Ukraine as an example of pragmatic cooperation, even as problems with Northern Ireland remained in play

3/

However, we seem to be back into the high-stress model with the FT reports on new domestic legislation to override parts of NI Protocol

4/
ft.com/content/58a94b…

Why do this?

Three explanations:
- red meat for campaigning
- forward planning for post #AE22
- serious intent to recast relations w EU

5/

With local elections and #AE22, plus assorted other bad news stories, it might suit Tories to throw out something to remind people of how they got control back

Of course, a bit tricky to explain how that control means fighting a treaty they negotiated/signed, but hey

6/

In this model, aim is to make voters think more positively of Tories (maybe DUP too) and vote accordingly. Job done and we can park this story for another time

7/

2nd option is fears that unionists will lose seats in #AE22, putting nationalists in driving seat of NI Assembly, making it harder to press for changes of Protocol

FT story seems to suggest overriding a consent vote, which would fit this

8/

However, 'solving' this problem creates a much bigger one of upsetting GFA model of power-sharing in NI

Aside from GFA obligations, does London want to have to deal with having to manage the fallout of this?

9/

Finally, FT story might be prelude to some serious attempt to rework Protocol

This fails on two basic tests, though

10/

Firstly, the initial action would result in both immediate sanctions from EU and legal action, which would create much damage to UK

Secondly, UK still doesn't have an alternative plan, let alone one that might fly with EU

11/

None of this is to argue that Protocol doesn't need much work to turn it into a viable long-term solution, but given the costs of trying to overturn it, UK might more usefully try again with the low-stress approach of talking it through

12/

Will end by observing that just because some UK ministers don't care what EU thinks/does, that doesn't mean the EU doesn't matter or have an impact on the UK

/end