Matt Warder Profile picture
Apr 22 4 tweets 3 min read
US HRC #steel forward curve has been correcting for about a month, but near term prices (highlighted in white) showing more resilience than further out.

Got to keep in mind that with tariffs still in place there's a floor price here...possible it has four digits.
Not sure if an analogous dynamic could play out in prime #scrap too...busheling forward curve 1st contract flattening but out months continue to decline.
Coking #coal beginning to inflect lower, not terribly dissimilar to the trend we saw in #steel two tweets ago.
But ultimately, the floor is set be #Dalian coking #coal prices, which are consolidating around the $400/tonne level 12 months out.

That represents UPSIDE for the current met coal forward curve, not downside.

Still BOOLISH.

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More from @mfwarder

Apr 23
So @Twitter’s algorithm slapped a sensitive content warning on a tweet in which I complained about it slapping a sensitive content warning on a tweet that contained no sensitive content.

And now I’m interested to see how far their terrible algorithm will go.

Game on. 😂 Image
This game is apparently the sensitive content algorithm version of the movie Inception™.

And I am losing. Image
OK so I wonder if this sensitive content warning was because I mentioned copyrighted IP?

Let’s see… Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
I'm a liberal and a registered Democrat who happens to have worked as a coal markets analyst for close to a decade for a major global institutional research and consultancy firm.

So "coal nerd" in this case indicates I am professionally qualified to evaluate others' analysis 1/X
While I understand it's pretty splashy to pump articles with titles like: "Aussie coal boom is ‘over’: new report co-authored by (politician's kid) says".



It's important to investigate the claims being made. 2/X
Let's start with the conclusion: "“Our findings are clear; Beijing’s plans for rapid decarbonisation and energy security signal the end for Australia’s current coal export boon,” Dr Gosens said"

It first might be good to see if there was, in fact, an "export boom"? 3/X Image
Read 14 tweets

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