OK, so now that momo has left the met #coal building, let's take a look through the equities and see what levels look interesting on pullbacks. 1/x

https://twitter.com/mfwarder/status/1752363185871434062

Let's start with the🐐 $AMR, which hit the first level of interest today at $350/sh.

Earnings coming up and MSHA data looked decent, but Street estimates have caught up with #CoalTwitter so any beat/miss likely in tight range.

If it gets to $300 or $265, I'll need a truck.2/x

OK let's talk $BTU. First off, here's where my model was going into earnings...pretty darn close!

Expected a beat on EBITDA and a miss on net income relative to estimates, which we got.

Takeaway here is that estimates aren't wildly off anymore, so no edge for #CoalTwitter😭 1/ Seaborne thermal not great, but that's going to happen when average prices are down 10-20% Q/Q and product mix shits toward Wilpinjong 5500.

Costs looking VERY GOOD though...which is what we want to see when prices don't cooperate. 2/x

After two solid weeks of modeling $BTU using every kind of approach imaginable, I'm comfortable saying that b/c their mines have vastly different #coal qualities, management does not provide enough information for analysts to get a confident read on projecting earnings.

1/x Taken straight from guidance, using a combination of committed prices and average prices since 2/14 (when 10-k was released) for PLV met/NEWC/API5 to cover unpriced tons, I get around $325M in FCF...a little light but in line with other comentary I've seen.

2/x

While I agree that $50 might not hold for $CEIX in the short term, I think the portrayal here is at best histrionic.

I don't have wild expectations for 2023, but what is not mentioned here is that for a low-cost operator like CONSOL, it doesn't really take much to do well. 1/n

https://twitter.com/8750Capital/status/1628424186980110336

While there is a *reference* to fundamentals, there is no analysis, only platitudes - "Not like 2022 dips. Gas macro different. The equity started to price that in and will price it in blah blah"

Truth is that EU outbid ME and India over past 2 yrs and that can revert now. 2/n

A word about natty with regard to US domestic thermal #coal.

1) Switching occurs at ~$3.50...may get that in back half of the year, but not close yet.

2) Producers are already sold out for 2023, so natty px doesn't have a big impact on '23 bottom line.

Int'l matters more 1/x Re: TTF, prices roughly back where they were post-Dec '21 spike, and the entire curve has consolidated here. If EU industrial activity accelerates, that's constructive for both met and thermal #coal. 2/x

OK, talked about this a little last month, and outlined some thoughts on a Spaces last night, but it's time to revisit the "China will save commodities" thesis.

I'll use the #steel & #coal space because that's what I know best, but there are analogs to other industries too...1/x For better or worse, I've always relied on China credit impulse to give me a sense of where we are in the #steel cycle...3 out of the past four cycles, prices peaked 12-24 months after a peak in credit.

Except for 2013/14...2/x

Coking #coal prices back to ~$250 for spot, and over $300 for peak restocking season. ARA (EU-delivered) thermal #coal back over $400/t after nearly hitting $300 back at the beginning of the month.

Both of those coal bottoms within a day or two of a short term bottom in oil prices.

PSA: coal isn't oil.

Important tidbit from Joe Craft on today's $ARLP call - "Today, utilities are acknowledging that they're dispatching uneconomic gas over coal."
That's because coal stockpiles haven't really improved much since I tweeted this out.

https://twitter.com/mfwarder/status/1529463080484319232?s=20&t=pu22PLXueHomsIrptaNU6g

Sub-bituminous #coal stockpiles - which saved western rate payers last year - are down 13 Mst YoY, with only about 10 Mst between May 31 levels and last year's Aug-Sept lows (during which natgas rose 66%).

OK, so $AHQ.AX filed a strategic review…sucks for met #coal beta chasers.

But I’ve commented on several Spaces before that New Elk’s resurgence typically signals the end of a cycle, and even just given the ramp up costs and productivity concerns, it was never guaranteed. 1/x

https://twitter.com/mfwarder/status/1484303993782390786

The issues at hand for New Elk are obvious…far far far from both domestic and export markets on an unfriendly railroad to Met coal.

But more importantly it has very little mining history, which renders operational risk management almost impossible.

Both were problems. 2/x

https://twitter.com/mfwarder/status/1484165470873960451

So @Twitter’s algorithm slapped a sensitive content warning on a tweet in which I complained about it slapping a sensitive content warning on a tweet that contained no sensitive content.

And now I’m interested to see how far their terrible algorithm will go.

Game on. 😂 This game is apparently the sensitive content algorithm version of the movie Inception™.

And I am losing.

I'm a liberal and a registered Democrat who happens to have worked as a coal markets analyst for close to a decade for a major global institutional research and consultancy firm.

So "coal nerd" in this case indicates I am professionally qualified to evaluate others' analysis 1/X

https://twitter.com/freya_cole/status/1517623189173862400

While I understand it's pretty splashy to pump articles with titles like: "Aussie coal boom is ‘over’: new report co-authored by (politician's kid) says".

https://twitter.com/freya_cole/status/1516901604993105920?s=20&t=aYHlpratmehX_h9cuC6kJw

It's important to investigate the claims being made. 2/X

US HRC #steel forward curve has been correcting for about a month, but near term prices (highlighted in white) showing more resilience than further out.

Got to keep in mind that with tariffs still in place there's a floor price here...possible it has four digits. Not sure if an analogous dynamic could play out in prime #scrap too...busheling forward curve 1st contract flattening but out months continue to decline.