Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 4/24/2022

1/11

We got a parade of FOMC members this week, starting with Bullard 🐻 and ending with Powell 💩

Their message was clear - no 👊🥣 for you!

The equity market 🤮, $CRB ↘️, $TNX ↗️, and $USD 🚀

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

1a/11

Indeed the Federal Reserve balance sheet ↘️ -9.5B this week

2/11

With the pending 💦🍋, the $USD has become more valuable - raising havoc around the 🌏

$USD +0.9% (w) +5.8% (T) = 3 months
$USDCHF 3.0% (w) +4.9% (T)
$USDJPY +1.7% (w) +13.05% (T)
$GBP -1.75% (w) -5.3% (T)
$AUD -2.1% (w) +1.0% (T)

Chart: $USD ripping to new cycle highs

2a/11

All is not well with the Red Dragon🀄️

Chart: $CNYUSD crashed -2.04%

2b/11

Usually a safe haven currency, the 🇨🇭 is also ↘️ 🔪 vs. the USD

Chart: $CHFUSD

3/11

GOLD and metals also 👊 ↘️ on the back of 💪💵

$GOLD -2.1% (w) +5.6% (T)
$COPPER -2.95% (w) +1.35% (T)
$SILVER -5.6% (w) -0.25% (T)
$PLAT -6.7% (w) -10.4% (T)

Chart: $SILVER slipped to neutral (T) and -5.3% over trade duration (t) = 1 mo.

3b/11

The “Doctor” $COPPER slipped ↘️ from on high

Chart: $COPPER -2.55% (t) and on the 👀 list

4/11

Hydrocarbons also ↘️ on the week but remain ♉️ Trend (T)

$GASO -2.1% (w) +34.3% (T)
$WTIC -4.5% (w) +19.93% (T)
$BRENT -4.85% (w) +20.25% (T)
$NATGAS -8.75% (w) +76.2% (T)

Chart: After putting in a mutli-year high, Natty corrected 🔪 (6.50 is a 🎁 for #BTFD ♉️s)

5/11

Gains were ↔️ this week

$SOYB +1.35% (w) +34.3% (T)
$COFFEE +1.35% (w) -4.6% (T) ☕️
$CORN +0.65% (w) +28.05% (T)
$WHEAT -2.65% (w) +37.85% (T)
$SUGAR -4.3% (w) +1.6% (T)

Chart: No follow-thru for $SUGAR -2.1% (t)

5a/11

Clearly, the Fed aims to take a bit out of #inflation

Chart: $INFL -4.35% (w) -3.6% (t) +9.2% (T)

5b/11

Gold miners pummeled 🩸

Chart: $GDX -9.6% (w) +16.7% (T)

5c/11

So is the 2-year ♉️ in commodities drawing to a close?

Chart: $CRB -2.47% (w) -1.0% (t) +22.4% (T)

6/11

Equity vol fell throughout the week, then 🚀 on the Powell 💩 into the Friday close

$VIX 28.21 +551 BPS
$VXEEM 29.45 +642 BPS
$RVX 33.56 +630 BPS
$VXN 35.39 +653 BPS

Chart: $VIX back to the 🪓🪣 with a widening range of distribution

7/11

🇺🇸 equities ↘️ 🔪 🩸 with the $SPX -5.0% from the Thursday open to Friday close

$SPX -2.75% (w) -2.9% (T) 🐻
$IWM -3.15% (w) -2.2% (T)
$COMPQ -3.85% (w) -6.75% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ -9.4% (t) - duration equities fare poorly when rates rise

7a/11

US Sector losers ↘️
$XLC -7.75% (w) -15.1% (T) 🐻
$XLE -4.55% (w) +22.0% (T) ♉️
$XLB -3.75% (w) +2.0% (T)

Sector winners ↗️
$XLRE +1.25% (w) +5.3% (T) ♉️
$XLP +0.5% (w) +4.3% (T) ♉️

Chart: $XLC 🔪🩸

8/11

International indices were a ↔️ 🧳 but all 🐻 (T)

$KOSPI +0.3% (w) -4.5% (T)
$NIKK +0.05% (w) -1.5% (T)
$CAC -0.1% (w) -6.9% (T)
$DAX -0.15% (w) -9.35% (T)
$SSEC -3.85% (w) -12.4% (T)
$HSI -4.1% (w) -17.3% (T)

Chart: $SSEC - again, all is not well with the Red Dragon🀄️

8a/11

Emerging markets took it on the chin this week

Chart: $EEM -4.2% (w) -5.95% (t) -13.5% (T)

8b/11

Developed markets fared little better

Chart: $EFA -2.15% (w) -7.7% (T)

8c/11

Heretofore market leaders, commodity rich countries were under pressure ↘️ 🔪 🩸

$EWZ -6.7% (w) +16.15% (T)
$EWA -4.15% (w) +7.9% (T)
$EWC -3.8% (w) +1.55% (T)

Chart: $EWA -4.55% (t) but hanging onto ♉️ (T) - for now

9/11

UST yields ↗️ again to new cycle highs

10/2s to 22.6 BPS -14.5 BPS
30/5s to 1.1 BPS -12.3 BPS 🥞

MOVE 119.66 🛗

Chart: After a week of hesitation, the $UST2Y put in a new cycle high of 2.68%

10/11

Bond ETFs are still a 💩 place for your 💰, but if inflation and growth have peaked…

$LQD - 1.7% (w) -12.0% (T)
$HYG -1.2% (w) -7.25% (T)
$TLT -0.65% (w) -16.5% (T)
$TIP +0.2% (w) -3.6% (T)
$BNDD +1.2% (w) -7.1% (T)

Chart: Here’s what happens to $LQD with the 💦🍋

10a/11

And 👀 at municipal bonds 😱

Chart: $MUB 💩

11/11

All is not well

🇨🇳 🔐⬇️ strategy to lower $CRB

$FOMC 👊🥣 removal pending

UST yields ↗️ to cycle highs

Risk assets ↘️ with VOL ↗️

Time to raise 💦 and hide under the 🛏

Mind the gap and have a super profitable 💰week!