Ted Darling Profile picture
Individual investor and trader. Business owner. Endurance athlete, avid cyclist, swimmer, runner, and triathlete. #fintwit aficionado
David Profile picture Neil Brown Profile picture Adrian Reed Profile picture karen dunegan Profile picture 4 added to My Authors
May 29 โ€ข 18 tweets โ€ข 8 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

๐Ÿป market rallies are wicked, like a ๐Ÿ•ท luring the ๐Ÿชฐ into her ๐Ÿ•ธ

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the ๐Ÿ˜ฌ of #QT 1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to ๐ŸŽฌ the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

๐Ÿ’ฆ is already โ†˜๏ธ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22
May 27 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date!

Week to date

$NATGAS +10.05%
$COFFEE +5.0%
$WTIC +3.45%
$GASO +2.8%
$LUMBER +2.35%
$COPPER -0.35%
$WHEAT -2.2%

$EUR +1.6%
$GOLD +0.3%
$USD -1.25%
$BTC -4.1%

$SPX +4.0%
$CAC +2.0%
$SSEC -0.75%
$KOSPI -1.0%

$TLT +0.25%

Let's dig into the๐Ÿงฎ! Asia finished the week on an โ†—๏ธ๐ŸŽต

$NIKK 26782 +0.65%
$SSEC 3130 +0.25%
$TWII 15266 +1.85%
$HIS 20683 +2.8%
$KOPSI 2638 +1.0%
$IDX 7026 +2.05%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7183 +1.1%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 54865 +1.15%
May 15 โ€ข 17 tweets โ€ข 7 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD ๐Ÿ’ฃ around the ๐ŸŒ with #crypto ๐Ÿ’ฅ and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond โ™‰๏ธs finally caught a ๐Ÿ—ก๏ธ, but equity โ™‰๏ธs - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! 2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains ๐Ÿ›—

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
May 13 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +1.15%
$CNY -1.8%
$AUD -3.05%
$GOLD -3.1%
$SILVER -7.15%

$SSEC +1.75%
$DAX +0.5%
$CAC -0.85%
$KOSPI -3.55%
$NIKK -4.65%
$COMPQ -6.35%

$WTIC -3.3%
$COPPER -3.9%
$COFFEE +2.3%
$WHEAT +6.35%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Asian markets finished on an โ†—๏ธ ๐ŸŽต

$NIKK 26428 +2.65%
$SSEC 3084 +0.95%
$TWII 15832 +1.4%
$HSI 19902 +2.7%
$KOSPI 2604 +2.1%
$IDX 6598 -0.05%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
7075 +1.95%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 53664 +1.4%
May 1 โ€ข 22 tweets โ€ข 8 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ
Global macro review 05/01/2022

1/11

๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ - weโ€™re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Letโ€™s dig into the April ๐Ÿงฎ! 2/11

UST yields โ†—๏ธ across the โคด๏ธ

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = ๐Ÿ›— vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
Apr 29 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday and the MONTH to date!

$CAC -2.3%
$KOPSI -3.25%
$SSEC -8.55%
$COMPQ -9.5%

$COPPER -8.7%
$WITC +5.05%
$CORN +8.65%
$COTTON +8.85%
$GASO +10.3%
$NATGAS +22.1%

$USD +5.4%
$GOLD -3.2%
$GBP -5.15%
$JPY -7.0%

$TLT -8.25%

$VIX 29.99 +46%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ $NIKK closed for the next 6 trading days, but the rest of Asia ripped โ†—๏ธ into month end

$SSEC 3047 +2.4%
$TWII 16592 +1.05%
$HSI 21110 +4.1% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2695 +1.05%
$IDX 7229 +0.45%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7435 +1.05%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 57830 +0.55%
Apr 24 โ€ข 23 tweets โ€ข 8 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ
Global macro review 4/24/2022

1/11

We got a parade of FOMC members this week, starting with Bullard ๐Ÿป and ending with Powell ๐Ÿ’ฉ

Their message was clear - no ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ for you!

The equity market ๐Ÿคฎ, $CRB โ†˜๏ธ, $TNX โ†—๏ธ, and $USD ๐Ÿš€

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! 1a/11

Indeed the Federal Reserve balance sheet โ†˜๏ธ -9.5B this week
Apr 22 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +0.3%
$CNY -1.27%
$GOLD -1.35%

$BTC +2.0%
$COFFEE +1.95%
$CORN +1.45%
$COPPER -0.4%
$WTIC -2.95%
$NATGAS -4.7%

$DAX +2.4%
$CAC +1.9%
$NIKK +1.7%
$COMPQ -1.3%
$HSI -3.9%
$SSEC -4.1%

$TNX +3.15%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Asia closed the week on a โ†˜๏ธ๐ŸŽต

$NIKK 27105 -1.65%
$SSEC 3087 +0.25%
$TWII 17025 -0.6%
$HSI 20614 -0.35%
$KOSPI 2705 -0.85%
$IDX 7226 -0.7%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7473 -1.55%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 47555 -0.6%
Apr 10 โ€ข 17 tweets โ€ข 9 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022

1/11

The ๐Ÿ’ฆ๐Ÿ‹ has begun as the #FOMC drains the ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ

And they are coming after YOU dear investor

"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.โ€™โ€

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! 2/11

Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the โ›ฐ๏ธโ›ฐ๏ธ

10/2s steepened โ†—๏ธ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier

MOVE 125.96 ๐Ÿ›—๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - thereโ€™s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
Apr 8 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday!

Week to date

$BTC -5.45%
$EUR -1.5%
$GOLD +0.75%
$USD +1.15%

$CAC -3.35%
$NIKK -2.8%
$COMPQ -2.55%
$KOPSI -1.6%

$GASO -4.2%
$WTIC -3.35%
$COFFEE -1.05%
$PLAT -3.1%
$COPPER +0.25%
$CORN +2.05%
$WHEAT +4.15%
$NATGAS +11.2%

$TNX +27.5 BPS

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! After a โ†˜๏ธ week, Asia closed Friday โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 26986 +0.35%
$SSEC 3252 +0.45%
$TWII 17285 +0.6%
$HSI 21857 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2700 +0.15%
$IDX 7210 +1.15% โฌ…๏ธ

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7478 +0.45%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59444 +0.7%
Apr 6 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello ๐Ÿซ day!

As if the relentless โ†—๏ธ in yields was not enough, #Brainard reminded participants that the #FOMC is hell bent on removing the ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ

What ๐Ÿซ lurks today?

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! ๐Ÿชฆ ๐Ÿงน in China is over and Asia closed โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27350 -1.6%
$SSEC 3284 unch
$TWII 17522 -0.6%
$HSI 22016 -2.15% ๐Ÿซ
$KOSPI 2735 -0.9%
$IDX 7104 -0.6%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7490 -0.5%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59666 -0.85%
Apr 5 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello Tuesday!

$HYG +0.75%
$WTIC +4.05%
$TSLA +5.5%

As call buyers ๐Ÿ‹ the ๐Ÿฉณ

Is this deep #Quad4?
Asking for a friend reading a themes deck in the desert

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! China closed for Qingming Festival, also known as Tomb Sweeping Day

$NIKK 27788 +0.2%
$SSEC closed
$TWII 17625 -0.4%
$HSI 22502 closed
$KOSPI 2759 +0.05%
$IDX 7148 +0.45%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7528 +0.2%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 60397 -0.35%
Apr 4 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello Monday!

Post #opex
Post #NFP

With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard ๐Ÿฆ… on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Asia started the week ๐Ÿ’ชโ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% ๐Ÿ”ป
$HSI 22509 +2.15% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7514 +0.25%

India ๐Ÿ’ชโ†—๏ธ
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your ๐Ÿฉณ
Apr 3 โ€ข 21 tweets โ€ข 9 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022

1/13

Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?

Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are โ€œun-comp-ableโ€ vs Q2 2021

And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week โš ๏ธ 2/13

Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week

t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak

T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH
Apr 1 โ€ข 17 tweets โ€ข 7 min read
Hello Friday at the 1st day of April!
๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Since there's no trading allowed on the Fool's ๐Ÿƒ Day, let's review the month-end and quarter-end ๐Ÿงฎ! ๐ŸŒŠ rough seas, for sure, but equity volatility declined into month-end (m) but remained ๐Ÿ›— for the quarter (q)

$VIX 20.81 -9.34 pts (m), +3.59 puts (q)
Mar 31 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello Thursday and the last day of March 2022!

Month to Date
$NATGAS +27.35%
$BRENT +13.6%
$COPPER +6.65%
$CORN +6.85%
$CRB +12.0%

$BTC +9.4%
$GOLD +2.0%
$USD +1.2%

$NIKK +5.65%
$SPX +5.2%
$COMPQ +5.0%
$DAX +1.0%
$SSEC +5.65%

$TLT -5.65%
$SHY -1.4%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Asia closed March with a whimper โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27821 -0.75%
$SSEC 3252 -0.45%
$TWII 17693 -0.25%
$HSI 21997 -1.05%
$KOSPI 2558 +0.4% โฌ…๏ธ
$IDX 7071 +0.25% โฌ…๏ธ

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7500 -0.2%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 58664 -0.05%
Mar 30 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello ๐Ÿซ day!

I've moved on, but the ๐Ÿซ hasn't

With IVOL/RVOL in $SPX of -33, what could possibly go wrong?

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Ex-Japan, with its own unique set of problems, Asia closed broadly โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 28027 -0.8%
$SSEC 3267 +1.95%
$TWII 17741 +1.1%
$HSI 22213 +1.3%
$KOSPI 2747 +0.2%
$IDX 7053 +1.0%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7514 +0.65%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 58583 +1.1%
Mar 27 โ€ข 21 tweets โ€ข 9 min read
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 03/27/22

1/8

Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ can ๐Ÿ‘€

Commodities โ†—๏ธ

Yields โ†—๏ธ

Equities โ†—๏ธ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! 2/8

The ๐Ÿ”‘ to โ†˜๏ธ prices is โ†—๏ธ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 ๐Ÿ”
Mar 25 โ€ข 12 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday!

Last night, we hosted a surprise ๐ŸŽ‚ ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ for my wife. Sit down dinner with 30 friends and family members.
First time, long time. It felt good!

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Image Week to date:

$USDJPY +2.68%
$GOLD +1.7%
$AUD +1.36%
$USD +0.58%
$EUR +0.48%

$NATGAS +12.0%
$BRENT +9.5%
$BTC +7.0%
$SILVER +3.3%
$SOYB +1.95%
$COPPER +0.05%
$LUMBER -14.2%

$NIKK +4.8%
$HSI +2.5%
$COMPQ +2.15%
$SPX +1.3%
$CAC -0.95%

$TNX 2.34 +9.0%

$VIX 21.97 -220 BPS
Mar 18 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello #OPEX Friday!

Week to Date:

$AUD +1.15%
$USD -1.17%
$GOLD -2.1%
$SILVER -2.1%

$HSI +4.6%
$CAC +5.65%
$NIKK +5.9%
$COMPQ +6.0%

$COPPER +1.65%
$WHEAT -0.1%
$WTIC -7.0%

$TLT -2.3%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Asia finished the week โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 26827 +0.65%
$SSEC 3251 +1.1%
$TWII 17457 +0.05%
$HSI 21464 -0.15%
$KOSPI 2707 +0.45%
$IDX 6955 -0.15%

Australia โ†—๏ธโ™‰๏ธ
$ASX 7294 +0.6%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE closed for Holi
Mar 17 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello St. Patrick's Day! ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are ๐Ÿป the ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC

Let #inflation ๐Ÿƒ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Asia ๐Ÿš€ for a 2nd day ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%

Australia โ†—๏ธ๐Ÿ€
$ASX 8251 +1.05%

India โ†—๏ธ๐Ÿ€
$BSE 57954 +2.0%