Hello Monday!

The 🐻 markets in bonds, equities, and non-USD currencies continues unabated, even though equities are very oversold on a weekly basis.

This new 🪟 of weakness is not helping the ♉️s 🥐

But #Bitcoin 🚀

Let's dig into the market 🧮! In Asia, $SSEC 🇨🇳📉 from oversold levels

$NIKK 31,000 -0.8%
$SSEC 2939 -1.45% ⬅️ 🇨🇳
$TWII 16441 -0.05%
$HSI 17142 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2357 -0.75%
$IDX 6770 -1.1%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6844 -0.8%

Bharat ↘️
$BSE 65058 -0.5%

Hello Wednesday! 🐫

@business headline:
"US bond market rout continues unabated; goes global"

ISM Services data release today is the potential catalyst for a painful reversal.

Let's dig into the market 🧮! In Asia, the $NIKK rout continued

$NIKK 30535 -2.15% 🐫
$SSEC holiday 🪩
$TWII 🪩
$HSI 17186 -0.5%
$KOSPI 2405 -2.4% 🐫
$IDX 6863 -1.15%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6890 -0.75%

Bharat ↘️
$BSE 64939 -0.85%

Hello Tuesday!

After a one-day reprieve, the $USD is back in charge

Let's dig into the market 🧮 with trend and probable trading ranges! Asia, ex-NIKK, closed ↘️

$NIKK 32790 +0.95%
$SSEC 3137 -0.2%
$TWII 16433 -0.85%
$HSI 18023 -0.4%
$KOSPI 2537 -0.8%
$IDX 6939 -0.35%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7207 +0.2%

Bharat ↗️
$BSE 67222 +0.15%

Hello Wednesday! 🐫

With the $VIX pricing right at the top of my range, has the sell finally come?

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia mostly ↘️

$NIKK 30693 -0.85%
$SSEC 3205 -1.3% 🐫
$TWII 16188 +0.05%
$HSI 19077 -1.8%
$KOSPI 2567 unch
$IDX 6732 -0.05%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7214 -0.65%

India ↘️
$BSE 61913 -0.1%

Hello Tuesday!

The $USD 🎳 continues to tick 🔺 vs the $GBP +0.3% an vs. $CNY +0.22% even as #Bitcoin back > 27000

Let's dig into the market 🧮! The Asian ♉️ takes a hit ↘️

$NIKK 209578 -0.4%
$SSEC 3246 -1.5%
$TWII 16188 +0.05%
$HSI 19416 -1.35%
$KOSPI 2567 +0.4%
$IDX 6746 +0.25%

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7260 -0.05%

India ↗️
$BSE 62187 +0.35%

Hello Monday!

Slow start to the week with 🇯🇵 machine tool orders -3.5% as the debt ceiling drama continues in the background

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia ↗️ with 🗾 breaking to multi-year highs

$NIKK 31086 +0.9%
$SSEC 3296 +0.4%
$TWII 16181 +0.05%
$HSI 19722 +1.4%
$KOSPI 2557 +0.75%
$IDX 6741 +0.6%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7263 -0.2%

India ↗️
$BSE 61895 +0.25%

Hello Thursday!

The lure 🎣 of the #opex flows 🌊 are generating a massive #FOMO 🚨

All aboard the equity 🚊!

Meanwhile, the $USD quietly ticks ↗️ into neutral territory…

Let's dig into the market 🧮! $NIKK ♉️ led Asian equities ↗️

$NIKK 30574 +1.6%
$SSEC 3297 +0.4%
$TWII 16102 +1.1%
$HSI 19705 +0.75%
$KOSPI 2515 +0.85%
$IDX 6663 -0.2%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7237 +0.5%

India ↗️
$BSE 61653 +0.15%

Hello Wednesday! 🐫

$NIKK > 30,000 for the 1st time since Nov '21
#Bitcoin back < 27,000
#Copper eviscerated
$WTIC teetering at 70
$USD firm at 102.69

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asian democracies ↗️

$NIKK 30094 +0.85% ⬅️♉️
$SSEC 3284 -0.2%
$TWII 15925 +1.6%
$HSI 19529 -2.25%
$KOSPI 2495 +0.6%
$IDX 6672 -0.05%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7199 -0.5%

India ↘️
$BSE 61393 -0.85%

Hell Thursday!

Ahead of today's Q1 🇺🇸 GDP report, the @AtlantaFed has reduced its projected growth by a whopping -140 bps to only +1.1% 😮

Let's dig into the market 🧮!

https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/1651254772375093248?s=20

Asia closed broadly ↗️

$NIKK 28458 +0.15%
$SSEC 3286 +0.65%
$TWII 15412 +0.25%
$HSI 19812 +0.3%
$KOSPI 2496 +0.45%
$IDX 6942 +0.45%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7293 -0.3%

India ↗️
$BSE 60500 +0.35%

Hello Wednesday!

The ongoing divergence between $IWM and $RSP on one side and the $SPX and $QQQ on the other is the setup for the 🐫

Rising interest rate vol is also a good place to look with MOVE to 137

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia closed ↔️

$NIKK 28416 -0.7%
$SSEC 3264 unch
$TWII 15375 +0.05%
$HSI 19791 +0.9%
$KOSPI 2485 -0.15%
$IDX 6863 +0.55%

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7316 -0.1%

India ↔️
$BSE 60194 +0.1%

Hello Tuesday

Have you noticed the now almost daily $VIX pop in the overnight, providing bait 🎣 for vol 🌊 sellers?

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia mostly ↘️

$NIKK 28620 +0.1%
$SSEC 3265 -0.3%
$TWII 15371 -1.65%
$HSI 19618 -1.7%
$KOSPI 2489 -1.35%
$IDX holiday 🕌

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7322 -0.1%

India ↗️
$BSE 60243 +0.3%

Hello Monday!

This week is all about flowzzz 🌊 in the US with tax payments due today/Tuesday, Vixperation on Wednesday, and the end of a 5-week #opex cycle on Friday

Be on the lookout for 👱& 🧿

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia closed ↔️ with 🇨🇳 & 🇭🇰 ↗️ ahead of 🇨🇳 GDP

$NIKK 28515 +0.05%
$SSEC 3386 +1.4% 🇨🇳
$TWII 15929 +0.8%
$HSI 20786 +1.7% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 2576 +0.15%
$IDX 6777 -0.06%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7381 +0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 59843 -0.95%

Hello Spring 2023!

The swap lines are open, and we're buying $GOLD $TLT and #Bitcoin (unbelievably)

But what about the Qs?

Let' dig into the market 🧮! Asia closed ↘️ with $HSI🩸🇭🇰

$NIKK 26946 -1.4%
$SSEC 3235 -0.5%
$TWII 15120 -0.2%
$HSI 19021 -2.55% ⬅️ 🩸
$KOSPI 2379 -0.7%
$IDX 6612 -1.0%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6898 -1.4%

India ↘️
$BSE 57260 -1.25%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻💰
Macro Review 03/10/23

🧵 1/8

The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.

Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock 2a/8

After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”

The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️

Chart: MOVE index 140.06

Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +0.78%
$GBP -1.0%
$GOLD -1.08%

$TLT +0.18%
$TNX -0.98%
$HYG -1.73%

$NIKK +0.78%
$DAX +0.35%
$SSEC -2.94%
$SPX -3.16%

$COPPER +0.69%
$WTIC -4.97%
$SILVER -5.08%
#bitcoin -8.91%
$NATGAS -15.59%

Let's dig into the market 🧮! 🇺🇸 futures ↘️ ahead of #NFP

$ES 3905 -0.3%
$NQ 11883 unch
$RTY 1819 -0.5%

$VIX 22.73

$SPX range = 3860 - 4030 ↔️
$VIX range = 17.74 - 24.32 ↔️

Hello Thursday!

"With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2% and with the labor market remaining extremely tight… ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate …to return inflation to 2%…"
~J. Powell

Let's dig into the 🧮! In Asia, $NIKK 🇯🇵↗️ ♉️

$NIKK 8623 +0.65%
$SSEC 3276 -0.2%
$TWII 15771 -0.3%
$HSI 19926 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2414 -0.55%
$IDX 6780 +0.35%

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7311 +0.05%

India ↘️
$BSE 59837 -0.85%

Hello Tuesday!

Into month-end markup we go with USTs on the move ↗️ and the curve deeply inverted. If this rebalance and 401K flows don't turn this equity market around, look out below 🕳️

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia finished the month on a ↔️🎵

$NIKK 27446 +0.1%
$SSEC 3280 +0.65%
$TWII 15504 -0.7%
$HSI 19786 -0.8%
$KOSPI 2413 +0.4%
$IDX 6843 -0.15%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7258 +0.45%

India ↘️
$BSE 58890 -0.65%

Hello Monday!

Uncle Warren remains optimistic on the 🇺🇸 - despite a 14% drop in earnings $BRK.A $BRK.B

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia ↘️ to start the week

$NIKK 27424 -0.1%
$SSEC 3258 -0.3%
$TWII 15504 -0.7%
$HSI 19959 -0.25%
$KOSPI 2403 -0.85%
$IDX 6855 -0.05%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7225 -1.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 59143 -0.55%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻c 💰
Macro Review 2/26/23

🧵 1/8

If the #macro picture has been unclear, it has just come clearly into focus.

I am going to keep it simple this week -
crash risk is rising ⚠️🚩

Let’s dig into the market 🧮! 2a/8

It’s all about the $USD 🎳

On 2/10, we got a confirmed buy signal in the USD along with sell signals in $SPX and $TLT

Hello Monday!

A risk-off to start the week that smells of 2022
$VIX 🔺
$TNX 🔺
$USD 🔺

Let's dig into the market 🧮! Asia, ex-Japan, ↘️

$NIKK $27694 +0.65%
$SSEC 3239 -0.75%
$TWII 15393 -1.35%
$HSI 21222 -2.0%
$KOSPI 2439 -1.7%
$IDX 6874 -0.55%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7539 -0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 60523 -0.5%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023

1/9

The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics

We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.

Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.

Let’s dig into the 🧮! 2a/9

The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting

#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻