🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

🐻 market rallies are wicked, like a 🕷 luring the 🪰 into her 🕸

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the 😬 of #QT 1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to 🎬 the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

💦 is already ↘️ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation 👊🥣 removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22

Hello Friday and the week to date!

Week to date

$NATGAS +10.05%
$COFFEE +5.0%
$WTIC +3.45%
$GASO +2.8%
$LUMBER +2.35%
$COPPER -0.35%
$WHEAT -2.2%

$EUR +1.6%
$GOLD +0.3%
$USD -1.25%
$BTC -4.1%

$SPX +4.0%
$CAC +2.0%
$SSEC -0.75%
$KOSPI -1.0%

$TLT +0.25%

Let's dig into the🧮! Asia finished the week on an ↗️🎵

$NIKK 26782 +0.65%
$SSEC 3130 +0.25%
$TWII 15266 +1.85%
$HIS 20683 +2.8%
$KOPSI 2638 +1.0%
$IDX 7026 +2.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7183 +1.1%

India ↗️
$BSE 54865 +1.15%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Let’s dig into the 🧮! 2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.

Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +1.15%
$CNY -1.8%
$AUD -3.05%
$GOLD -3.1%
$SILVER -7.15%

$SSEC +1.75%
$DAX +0.5%
$CAC -0.85%
$KOSPI -3.55%
$NIKK -4.65%
$COMPQ -6.35%

$WTIC -3.3%
$COPPER -3.9%
$COFFEE +2.3%
$WHEAT +6.35%

Let's dig into the 🧮! Asian markets finished on an ↗️ 🎵

$NIKK 26428 +2.65%
$SSEC 3084 +0.95%
$TWII 15832 +1.4%
$HSI 19902 +2.7%
$KOSPI 2604 +2.1%
$IDX 6598 -0.05%

Australia ↗️
7075 +1.95%

India ↗️
$BSE 53664 +1.4%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 05/01/2022

1/11

🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Let’s dig into the April 🧮! 2/11

UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing

Hello Friday and the MONTH to date!

$CAC -2.3%
$KOPSI -3.25%
$SSEC -8.55%
$COMPQ -9.5%

$COPPER -8.7%
$WITC +5.05%
$CORN +8.65%
$COTTON +8.85%
$GASO +10.3%
$NATGAS +22.1%

$USD +5.4%
$GOLD -3.2%
$GBP -5.15%
$JPY -7.0%

$TLT -8.25%

$VIX 29.99 +46%

Let's dig into the 🧮 $NIKK closed for the next 6 trading days, but the rest of Asia ripped ↗️ into month end

$SSEC 3047 +2.4%
$TWII 16592 +1.05%
$HSI 21110 +4.1% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.05%
$IDX 7229 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7435 +1.05%

India ↗️
$BSE 57830 +0.55%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 4/24/2022

1/11

We got a parade of FOMC members this week, starting with Bullard 🐻 and ending with Powell 💩

Their message was clear - no 👊🥣 for you!

The equity market 🤮, $CRB ↘️, $TNX ↗️, and $USD 🚀

Let’s dig into the 🧮! 1a/11

Indeed the Federal Reserve balance sheet ↘️ -9.5B this week

Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +0.3%
$CNY -1.27%
$GOLD -1.35%

$BTC +2.0%
$COFFEE +1.95%
$CORN +1.45%
$COPPER -0.4%
$WTIC -2.95%
$NATGAS -4.7%

$DAX +2.4%
$CAC +1.9%
$NIKK +1.7%
$COMPQ -1.3%
$HSI -3.9%
$SSEC -4.1%

$TNX +3.15%

Let's dig into the 🧮! Asia closed the week on a ↘️🎵

$NIKK 27105 -1.65%
$SSEC 3087 +0.25%
$TWII 17025 -0.6%
$HSI 20614 -0.35%
$KOSPI 2705 -0.85%
$IDX 7226 -0.7%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7473 -1.55%

India ↘️
$BSE 47555 -0.6%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022

1/11

The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣

And they are coming after YOU dear investor

"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”

Let’s dig into the 🧮! 2/11

Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️

10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier

MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺

Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%

Hello Friday!

Week to date

$BTC -5.45%
$EUR -1.5%
$GOLD +0.75%
$USD +1.15%

$CAC -3.35%
$NIKK -2.8%
$COMPQ -2.55%
$KOPSI -1.6%

$GASO -4.2%
$WTIC -3.35%
$COFFEE -1.05%
$PLAT -3.1%
$COPPER +0.25%
$CORN +2.05%
$WHEAT +4.15%
$NATGAS +11.2%

$TNX +27.5 BPS

Let's dig into the 🧮! After a ↘️ week, Asia closed Friday ↗️

$NIKK 26986 +0.35%
$SSEC 3252 +0.45%
$TWII 17285 +0.6%
$HSI 21857 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2700 +0.15%
$IDX 7210 +1.15% ⬅️

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7478 +0.45%

India ↗️
$BSE 59444 +0.7%

Hello 🐫 day!

As if the relentless ↗️ in yields was not enough, #Brainard reminded participants that the #FOMC is hell bent on removing the 👊🥣

What 🐫 lurks today?

Let's dig into the 🧮! 🪦 🧹 in China is over and Asia closed ↘️

$NIKK 27350 -1.6%
$SSEC 3284 unch
$TWII 17522 -0.6%
$HSI 22016 -2.15% 🐫
$KOSPI 2735 -0.9%
$IDX 7104 -0.6%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7490 -0.5%

India ↘️
$BSE 59666 -0.85%

Hello Tuesday!

$HYG +0.75%
$WTIC +4.05%
$TSLA +5.5%

As call buyers 🍋 the 🩳

Is this deep #Quad4?
Asking for a friend reading a themes deck in the desert

Let's dig into the 🧮! China closed for Qingming Festival, also known as Tomb Sweeping Day

$NIKK 27788 +0.2%
$SSEC closed
$TWII 17625 -0.4%
$HSI 22502 closed
$KOSPI 2759 +0.05%
$IDX 7148 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7528 +0.2%

India ↘️
$BSE 60397 -0.35%

Hello Monday!

Post #opex
Post #NFP

With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard 🦅 on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.

Let's dig into the 🧮! Asia started the week 💪↗️

$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% 🔻
$HSI 22509 +2.15% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.25%

India 💪↗️
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your 🩳

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022

1/13

Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?

Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are “un-comp-able” vs Q2 2021

And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week ⚠️ 2/13

Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week

t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak

T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH

Hello Friday at the 1st day of April!
🐰🐰

Since there's no trading allowed on the Fool's 🃏 Day, let's review the month-end and quarter-end 🧮! 🌊 rough seas, for sure, but equity volatility declined into month-end (m) but remained 🛗 for the quarter (q)

$VIX 20.81 -9.34 pts (m), +3.59 puts (q)

Hello Thursday and the last day of March 2022!

Month to Date
$NATGAS +27.35%
$BRENT +13.6%
$COPPER +6.65%
$CORN +6.85%
$CRB +12.0%

$BTC +9.4%
$GOLD +2.0%
$USD +1.2%

$NIKK +5.65%
$SPX +5.2%
$COMPQ +5.0%
$DAX +1.0%
$SSEC +5.65%

$TLT -5.65%
$SHY -1.4%

Let's dig into the 🧮! Asia closed March with a whimper ↘️

$NIKK 27821 -0.75%
$SSEC 3252 -0.45%
$TWII 17693 -0.25%
$HSI 21997 -1.05%
$KOSPI 2558 +0.4% ⬅️
$IDX 7071 +0.25% ⬅️

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7500 -0.2%

India ↔️
$BSE 58664 -0.05%

Hello 🐫 day!

I've moved on, but the 🐫 hasn't

With IVOL/RVOL in $SPX of -33, what could possibly go wrong?

Let's dig into the 🧮! Ex-Japan, with its own unique set of problems, Asia closed broadly ↗️

$NIKK 28027 -0.8%
$SSEC 3267 +1.95%
$TWII 17741 +1.1%
$HSI 22213 +1.3%
$KOSPI 2747 +0.2%
$IDX 7053 +1.0%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.65%

India ↗️
$BSE 58583 +1.1%

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review 03/27/22

1/8

Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁‍🗨 can 👀

Commodities ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ↗️

Let’s dig into the 🧮! 2/8

The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝

Hello Friday!

Last night, we hosted a surprise 🎂 🎉🍾 for my wife. Sit down dinner with 30 friends and family members.
First time, long time. It felt good!

Let's dig into the 🧮! Week to date:

$USDJPY +2.68%
$GOLD +1.7%
$AUD +1.36%
$USD +0.58%
$EUR +0.48%

$NATGAS +12.0%
$BRENT +9.5%
$BTC +7.0%
$SILVER +3.3%
$SOYB +1.95%
$COPPER +0.05%
$LUMBER -14.2%

$NIKK +4.8%
$HSI +2.5%
$COMPQ +2.15%
$SPX +1.3%
$CAC -0.95%

$TNX 2.34 +9.0%

$VIX 21.97 -220 BPS

Hello #OPEX Friday!

Week to Date:

$AUD +1.15%
$USD -1.17%
$GOLD -2.1%
$SILVER -2.1%

$HSI +4.6%
$CAC +5.65%
$NIKK +5.9%
$COMPQ +6.0%

$COPPER +1.65%
$WHEAT -0.1%
$WTIC -7.0%

$TLT -2.3%

Let's dig into the 🧮! Asia finished the week ↗️

$NIKK 26827 +0.65%
$SSEC 3251 +1.1%
$TWII 17457 +0.05%
$HSI 21464 -0.15%
$KOSPI 2707 +0.45%
$IDX 6955 -0.15%

Australia ↗️♉️
$ASX 7294 +0.6%

India ↔️
$BSE closed for Holi

Hello St. Patrick's Day! 🍀🍀

Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are 🍻 the 🕊️🕊️ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC

Let #inflation 🏃

Let's dig into the 🧮! Asia 🚀 for a 2nd day 🍀🍀

$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%

Australia ↗️🍀
$ASX 8251 +1.05%

India ↗️🍀
$BSE 57954 +2.0%