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Apr 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
#Russia_Moldova: After last week's hawkish statements made by the Russian general, probably under the militaristic adrenaline fueled by the military aggression against Ukraine, the Russian MFA tries to act like a "dove". The latter issued a statement to calm the public.⤵️
MFA Deputy Director Rudenko reiterated that Moscow respects the territorial integrity of Moldova and advocates a special status for the Transnistria region. This statement is indicative of two major things about Moscow's view on Moldova/Tranistrian region: ⤵️
1) The Russian military is not close to the borders with Moldova, while public threats to extend the war to reach the Transnistrian region may further isolate it. Moldovan public opinion already perceives it as a huge source of instability;⤵️
2) Talking openly about the expansion of the war in Ukraine to the territories of Moldova could lead to structural and radical changes in the country's strategic thinking about its status of constitutional neutrality. ⤵️
In addition, such statements serve as arguments for Kyiv's convincing discourse about the threats that Russia poses to the whole of Europe, not just to Ukraine.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 27
#Ukraine_Moldova: Zelenskiy has highlighted two things about the destabilization of the breakaway region of Moldova. He is clearly aware of the might of the Ukrainian military compared to the Russian potential in the breakaway region. That explains why the Transnistria region ⤵️
has so far avoided getting involved in the war and Russia was reluctant to do so either. Another interesting aspect raised by Zelenskiy, which seems problematic to me, is his argument that destabilization occurs now to prevent Moldova from supporting Ukraine. As a matter of⤵️
fact there is no specific support promised by Moldovan authorities. The latter themselves need external assistance and are facing multi-dimensional crises, happening at once. It is not clear what the Ukrainian presidents really meant. Until very recently, ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 26
#Ukraine_Moldova: Kyiv reports that Russia is considering an airstrike in the Transnistria region to accuse Ukraine afterwards. This scenario will trigger the reaction of the military forces in the region, including the Russian forces (Operational Group of Russian Forces). ⤵️
Ukrainian intelligence argues that the military forces of Transnistria and Russia are already ready to act if necessary, probably in the direction of Ukraine (if the latter is presented as the responsible side). This doesn't rule out that Moldova could be also somehow affected ⤵️
(the population is already scared). On the other hand, we attended a pin-pong between the president of Moldova, Sandu, and the leader of the region, Krasnoselkiy. The latter hinted that Sandu does not have reliable information. She said after the National Security Council that ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 26
#Moldova: The situation has not changed much since yesterday's nerves around the explosions in the breakaway region of Moldova. The "peacekeepers" of the region carry out their function without any change from their mandate. This comforting news comes from the de facto⤵️
authorities of Transnistria. It is worth mentioning that neither the OSCE Mission to Moldova nor the Polish OSCE Chairmanship made any statement on the provocation aimed at destabilizing security in the Transnistria region. This does not help calm things down in⤵️
Chisinau and Tiraspol. One lesson must be learned from this, namely that until Russian war in Ukraine is not over, the security situation in Moldova must be closely watched as much as the process of European integration.
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 25
#Moldova: Unknown online accounts apparently originating from the separatist region began advocating attacking Chisinau as a preventive measure for the Tiraspol grenade explosion. Because of that, my family in Chisinau (and other friends they know) prepare their luggage to ⤵️
leave the city and then the country (for Romania) if the separatist region launches an attack. This looks like an unlikely scenario. As I commented earlier, this is an attempt to destabilize the region. but the public is already scared because of the Russian aggression in ⤵️
Ukraine and because they know that Chisinau is about 30 km away from the separatist region. The response of the Moldovan Reintegration Office to the explosion is somewhat weak and not at all reassuring for the population of the capital. The Bureau representing the government ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 24
#EU_US: Some takeaways of the recent EU-US strategic partnership meeting related to the WB-Russia-EaP-Central-Asia region: 1) The two sides will coordinate to ensure that Russian perpetrators of war crimes in Ukraine are held accountable; ⤵️
2) As part of the new High-Level Bilateral Dialogue on Russia (launched on March 30), they agreed to continue coordinating security assistance to Ukraine and the application of sanctions against Russia and Belarus; 3) They assessed EU and US efforts to counter ⤵️
Russian and Chinese propaganda and disinformation campaigns; 4) Both the EU and the US agreed to discourage China from eventually helping Russia circumvent sanctions; 5) Ensuring resilience, sovereignty, territorial integrity and stability in Wider Europe, including ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 24
#Ukraine_EU: Austrian MFA Schallenberg stated that Ukraine should not be offered EU candidate status. This is the first EU national official to voice his opposition in public before the EU Council in June. The Austrian MFA Schallenberg belongs to⤵️
the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), which is part of the EPP political family. It is strange that the leadership of the EPP, including Tusk himself, has not built a unanimous position among the national politicians of the MSs, who will have to approve the opinion⤵️
of the EU Commission on Ukraine's application for membership. This could mean that the Austrian government is also reluctant to EU membership application from Moldova and Georgia. An interesting remark is that, unlike Georgia and Ukraine,⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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