Thread by @althecat

#RamadanRain

20th April

#RamandanRains

21st April

#RamadanRain

22nd April

#RamandanRains

23rd April

#RamadanRain

24th April

#RamadanRains

25th April

#RamadanRain

26th April (yesterday)

The time series of satellite images above come from @zoom_earth each shows 24 hours to 1.45am CEST.

The final two images have weather radar rain data overlaid on them. Unfortunately this data is not available for the full set. However I recorded a few more animations earlier which can be seen below.

1. This one shows a broader regional view from April 20th.

2. Here late at night on the 20th-21st we see one of the causes of this event an atmospheric river travelling NNE over #Ethiopia and the Arabian Peninsula.

3. This view from April 22nd shows the radar data as the storms over the Arabian Peninsula strengthened.

4. A similar view this time on April 23rd.

5. Here we see a closeup of the storm on April 23rd - Easter Saturday - the most intense storm so far. This storm took place as the Coptic Ethipoian Church celebrated the Vigil.

6. The rainfall was forecast well by computer models - and is due to a combination of water transport north over Ethiopia colliding with water transported East over the Sahara from the WMA and Amazon Monsoons.

These long range rainfall forecasts are all from April 23rd.

7. Finally two forecasts.

The first for #RamadanRains over the remaining days of Ramadan through to #EID on May 2nd.

8. Latest long range rainfall forecasts.

1. 10 Days CMC
2. 10 Days ECMWF
3. 12 Days KMA
4. 16 Days GFS

Which indicate this pattern of #DesertRains over the Arabian Peninsula is set to continue for now.

9. This animation shows a forecast for PWAT (Precipitable Water) over the Arabian Peninsula over the next 16 days. This is the cause of the high levels of rainfall.

10. And to conclude this animation shows the extent to which these Middle Eastern #RamadanRains diverge from climate norms.

/ENDS

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