The New York State Court of Appeals has thrown out New York's Congressional and State Senate maps for 2022. Both maps will be drawn by a special master, not the legislature. The decision was likely 4-3.
RIP Hochulmander! We hardly knew ya.
Also: major props to @Redistrict for forecasting the key battles of April back in January. Hochul loses in court, and DeSantis won in his legislature and is a solid favorite in court. Assuming his map holds, the GOP has won the 20’s redistricting cycle.
Great job by Jacob too, predicting exactly how the 7 judges would rule! Get that man a clerkship.
Reading the opinions, it's actually a 5-2 or 4-1-2 opinion. Justice Troutman would have struck down the maps on the procedural argument (that the proper process wasn't filed in enacting the maps), but would have given the legislature another chance to pass a new map.
Worth noting that one of the real heroes here is @SeanTrende who was one of the lead GOP witness in the redistricting case. Sean played a key role in getting fair Congressional maps in New York, Virginia & Maryland & without a doubt has been this cycle's #redistricting MVP.

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More from @RRHElections

Apr 25
Quick thread on Kansas ruling and what may come next:

1. Trial judge found that the map was both a political and racial gerrymander. The judge is an elected D in one of the state’s two liberal counties, so this was reasonably expected.
2. The racial gerrymandering claim is absurd under modern federal law and won’t get anywhere. But the majority-Dem Kansas Supreme Court may decide to throw out the map on the political gerrymandering claim alone.
3. Unlike in other states where a court has tossed out a map, there’s a serious procedural question about whether Kansas courts even have jurisdiction to hear redistricting challenges. Expect R’s to press that on appeal.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 13
Without even getting into legal arguments, this is factually wrong on at least three counts.

First, the new #FL10 and the old #FL10 are both 28% Black. There is no change to Black voting strength in Orlando's seat, as anyone who bothered to check DRA before tweeting would notice
Second, the new #FL14 in Tampa/St. Pete has a higher Black % than either the old #FL13 or the old #FL14. The old seats were likely to elect one white D and one white D or R. The new #FL14 offers a better chance for a Black rep to be elected from TB, at the expense of white D's.
Third, the split of the Black vote in St. Pete was likely done for compactness, and actually hurts R's! DeSantis's #FL14 (left) leaves out some AA precincts in St. Pete. Adding them (right) in makes the seat less compact, but more AA, and also makes #FL13 and #FL15 each redder.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
A judge has ordered that the challenge to NY’s maps will go forward. Per @cinyc9, who attended today’s hearing, NY is likely to use its leg.-drawn map this year. The judge may order new elections if he strikes down the map, or changes could wait for ‘24. Decision next month.
Judge Patrick McAllister, who is presiding over the case, ordered discovery and denied Democrats’ motions to dismiss. Experts will testify on March 14.
Judge McAllister denied #NYGov Kathy Hochul's motion to be removed from the case and said she is a necessary party to the lawsuit.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
🚨🚨🚨#BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that required Alabama to redraw its congressional map. The new 6R-1D Alabama map will stand for this year.
rrhelections.com/index.php/2021…
The full Court opinion can be found here👇
supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf…
This means the soon to be passed least change Louisiana maps will also most likely withstand VRA challenges.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 6
Bill de Blasio is a Park Slope Democrat. The 2 groups deBalsio is still popular with are Park Slope progressives & black voters. As luck would have it the majority of voters in a #NY11 Democratic primary will be from Park Slope & black voters on Staten Island's North Shore.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Let's do a quick thread on #FL5, the most litigated district in the history of Election Twitter! We'll try to give some context to what @RonDeSantisFL is likely getting at when he argues the district--and thus the map that passed the Florida Senate today--is illegal. 1/x
#FL5, like most of America's ugliest racial gerrymanders, has its roots in the '92 redistricting cycle. The Bush 41 DOJ took a then-prevailing, but since-discredited, view of the VRA that required states to aggressively gerrymander to maximize the Black population in VRA seats 2/
The Bush DOJ pressured Southern states--mostly still run by Democrats--to break up 35-40% Black seats that were Black enough to elect a D, but white enough to ensure that D was white. This led to significant opportunity for Black D's and white R's at the expense of white D's. 3/
Read 31 tweets

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