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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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Apr 28 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This is literally the opposite of what has happened, empirically speaking
pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022…
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…
mmo-champion.com/threads/258968…
(Not entirely sure why that’s the link that got copied but ok)
npr.org/2021/11/09/105…
75% of Republicans call themselves conservatives. 50% of democrats say they are liberal washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
People keep sending this chart to me and those people need to read up on the metric. This is a measure of how *consistent* voters are in their beliefs, not how extreme those beliefs are. It shows sorting not polarization.(IIRC when I was @ Pew some ppl called it "ideocentrality")
I might be making that word up because I can't find it anywhere on the internet

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Apr 26
Some data on the “Twitter is the new public square” nonsense: Only 22% of Americans are on Twitter, according to Pew, and 10% of them are creating 90% of the content. Don’t really think we should be pinning our hopes for democracy on 280-character posts from ~2% of the public
pewresearch.org/internet/2019/…
My point was not that we shouldn’t worry about Elon Musk buying Twitter. My point was that this site is overrated as a place for meaningful public discourse that impacts politics and/or policy in a representative way
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Apr 20
I had to open the Barro tweet in incognito because he blocks me even though I’ve never interacted with him, but if he really thinks it’s “all acquiescence bias” then how about he sponsors a poll with reversed wording? Then he’ll actually have some data for his wild speculation
Also I know this requires some critical thinking about polls and voter psych but it’s entirely possible that people support requiring masks *in general* even if they simultaneously don’t like to *personally* have to masks.
It's also suuuper possible that lifting the CDC mask mandate for travel, which happened AFTER this AP-NORC poll was conducted, changed public opinion on the issue.Nobody in the "the polls are wrong on masking!" camp seems to be looking at the field dates
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Apr 1
there is literal blood on my keyboard. my work keyboard. in our office. is it my blood? how did it get here? is it someone else's??
tell my editors i put my blood, sweat and tears into this
i ain’t fibbin’
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Apr 1
Hungary holds its parliamentary election this Sunday. Will it be fair? We look at results from 2010 to 2018 and find evidence of *extreme* gerrymandering by Fidesz, Viktor Orban's party. Our model finds it can win a majority of seats with only 43% of votes
economist.com/graphic-detail…
The electoral map in Hungary is much more biased than even America's worst gerrymander in recent history, the 2012 House of Representatives map
The evidence of gerrymandering is also incredibly clear. When Fidesz forced through a constitutional amendment in 2010 that (in part) redrew electoral boundaries, they crammed opposition voters into fewer seats and spread their voters across less populous seats in the countryside
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Mar 29
"Politicians should not listen to the people" is quite a take
More seriously, what do we know about how accurate the polls are? We know they meet key gov benchmarks for household statistics and anticipate election results within ~2 percentage points on average. What more could we expect of them? Given margins of error, what more do we want?
In my book, I discuss the potential pitfalls of "democracy by survey." But spinning the wheel 180º and not using polls at all is probably unwise. Politicians are not the true delegates for peoples' preferences they'd need to be for democracy without polls.
wwnorton.com/books/97803938…
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Mar 10
The NYT has a nice piece on redistricting out today arguing the 2022 US house map will be the fairest in a decade, thanks to Dems benefiting from litigation as well as their own gerrymandering in places like NY & NM. This is technically right but misses a few key points.

Thread:
PS, before I get going, this is a long thread so I have posted it to my blog in case you want to read somewhere with betting formatting gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/new-us-house…
First, see our piece on this from last month, here: economist.com/united-states/…

You can listen to a podcast with us feat. @ProfNickStephan here: economist.com/podcasts/2022/…

And, finally, more analysis here (which I will touch on shortly): view.e.economist.com/?qs=cd832dace4…
Read 20 tweets

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