Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW35 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover GW35 at length:

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In this latest article, I cover the best differentials for GW35 and beyond to help you gain rank: 👇🏻

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/best-fpl-diffe…

Q: When to Free Hit?

For those with no Villa/Everton in their teams, Free Hitting in GW37 makes a lot of sense. Three each from City and Liverpool + a few from Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs sets you up really well for both GW36 & GW38. Both Everton and Villa have favorable...

... doubles in 37. If you go heavy on them without a Free Hit in GW37, your team would suffer as a result in 38 - Everton face Arsenal (a) & Villa play City (a) in GW38. Are Villa and Everton going to outscore single GW players in 37? Tough to say as they are...

... unreliable which is why I want them for one week alone. That's the chance you've got to take. Doesn't mean you ignore all the obvious single GW picks in GW37 though. You’ve got to find the right balance of single and double GWers.

Alternatively, if you own a decent...

... contingent of Villa/Everton players, Free Hit in GW38 is doable as well so that you can get rid of them in 38 easily.

The only real upside I see with FH36 is that it makes KdB easier to own. Even the less desired picks like Son in GW36 could potentially do...

... well against Liverpool or Arsenal on the counter. It’s tough to gauge.

Q: Who to captain in GW35?

I’d back whichever one of Son/Kane you own this GW. Despite a run of successive blanks over the past couple of GWs, we shouldn't forget that Spurs are only behind Man City and Liverpool when it comes to xG non-penalty since Conte took over...

... Son and Kane are completely nailed to start with Spurs having all to play for in the league. They have had a week’s rest while Leicester are highly likely to rotate as a result of their European commitments. Kane has a terrific record against Leicester while Son should...

... benefit too as Leicester don’t strike me as the kind of team that will park the bus so will leave spaces in behind. Further, no team has conceded more headed attempts than Leicester this season - and they are also ranked second for set pieces conceded as well which...

... increases Son's assist potential.

Newcastle’s defensive stats under Howe have been highly impressive. No team in the league has conceded fewer big chances in home games than Newcastle in 2022 – with only Liverpool having a better xG conceded. However, it is worth...

... pointing out that Newcastle have had some favorable home fixtures in this spell. None of the teams they have faced at home in 2022 has been in the top 10 for xG this season. They capitulated the last time they played a “top” side recently – where they conceded a xG...

... of 3+ against Spurs. Liverpool have a less than a 72 hours turnaround while Newcastle have had the entire week off – I’d still back Liverpool to win but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Salah come off after the hour mark.

The same is the case with KdB while I don’t...

... think Saka has as high a ceiling as compared to the others – Arsenal are ranked mid-table for xG away while West Ham have been solid at home defensively.

Q: Which Man City assets to buy this GW? Which Man City assets are best for the run-in?

I’ve been scouring through the City fan forums to check their predicted lineups for Leeds. There’s no clear consensus I'm afraid - some fans are predicting rests for Foden/KdB/Jesus while...

... others are predicting early substitutions. Given the Tue-Sat-Wed turnaround, I’d expect KdB to start and come off if the game is done early but I couldn’t say the same about Foden this week with any confidence (despite the fact that he appears to be my second City attacker...

... of choice due to his versatility). I think despite the double in GW36, it’s better to re-assess this week with a view of buying them next week – Cancelo and Laporte obviously being the only exceptions.

Q: James and Alonso – sell or keep?

I’d hold both against Everton. Both have the potential to haul big if they start. James was extremely unlucky not to have registered some returns against United – and if you sell him now you run the risk of selling before a potential haul.

Q: KdB or Son if picking now?

I’d go with Son if picking one right now – more likely to play 90 minutes and in my opinion, a better captaincy shout this week.

Q: Who are the best budget strikers/Wood replacements if buying one this week?

I prefer Watkins to Richarlison if buying one this week. The Norwich fixture is too appealing an opportunity to pass up on. He's top among Villa players for expected goal involvement (xGi) over...

... the past six matches and should be on penalties as Ings is out of favor. However, if I was to make the same decision next week I’d prefer Richarlison as his fixtures are slightly better.

If budget is a problem, Nketiah is an excellent alternative as well.

“If there is...

... one player that I have been unfair with, I think it is him. He has given me every right to do something different, so if Eddie hasn’t played more, it’s my fault and because as a manager I have missed something or I haven’t had the courage to play him more, and today he...

... showed me again how wrong I was.”

These quotes by Arteta on Nketiah suggest that he will give him more playing time in the weeks to come, on the back of his impressive performances against Chelsea and Man United. I believe that he has done enough to start...

... and is worth the risk.

He plays West Ham this week which is either side of their fixture in Europe so I'm expecting mass rotation from them as they have nothing to play for in the league. It's worth noting that West Ham will be without any fit first team centre-backs...

... as well because their squad has been severely depleted by injuries. Further, West Ham are second for chances conceded down the centre in the past six matches which also bodes well for Nketiah. The bookmakers have given Nketiah a very healthy 44% chance of scoring this week.

What I like about Nketiah is that he's a low-risk punt because of his price. He allows for significant upgrades elsewhere in your squad. I also low-key think that Nketiah could be a pick for the remainder of the season if he continues to impress in his starts...

... In GW36, he has a double GW which includes a fixture against Leeds. Newcastle and Everton in GW37 and 38 are good fixtures as well which makes Nketiah a solid pick.

Q: Are Villa’s assets worth investing in?

Yes, I think so – especially for those managers without a Free Hit or for those Free Hitting in GW36 as Villa have five games over the next three GWs. Despite their recent lack of form, Villa are underperforming on their xG in...

... recent times. Over the past five matches, Villa have scored just twice despite registering a xG of nearly 7. I'd also like to take the opportunity to highlight the difference in Coutinho's performances home and away since he joined Villa:

Home v Away (stats per 90)

Big chance involvements: 1.67 v 0.00
xGi: 1.00 v 0.30
FPL points per game: 8.56 v 3.95

The difference is as big as night and day. Four of the next five games are at home now which should bode well for him. It's also worth noting that...

... Coutinho's underlying stats against the bottom ten in the league have been much better as compared to this numbers against the top ten sides this season - he's far more involved so it wouldn't be wrong to call him a flat track bully on the basis of the evidence we have...

... so far. The fixtures coming up should give him even more of an opportunity to stat-pad.

I also like the look of Matty Cash. He has already recorded five attacking returns under Gerrard so far and is fourth for penalty area touches ever since the new Villa boss took over...

... The fixture against Norwich should suit Villa as well - Norwich have conceded the second highest number of chances down their left flank in the league in 2022.

At this point, it is also worth highlighting that Villa have been significantly underperforming on their xGc as...

... well. Over the past five matches, they have conceded nine goals despite the fact that only Liverpool and Man City have a better xG conceded than them in this spell.

Q: Maddison – sell or keep?

Ideally, I’d keep him Maddison if you have a good bench option this week. He’s the best Leicester mid to own in my opinion but I think there is a high chance of him being rotated this GW. If you don’t have a good alternative to cover for him...

... from the bench, I’d sell for Coutinho.

Q: When to play Bench Boost/Triple Captain if Free Hit is also left?

A lot of this is team dependent but given the fact that GW36 is a big double GW, it should be easier to Bench Boost in. The fixtures in GW36 are better too. Salah and De Bruyne are both legit shouts...

... for triple captaincy in GW36, which should mean that those FPL managers with two chips left should use the FH in 37 and the BB/TC in 36.

Q: When to wildcard?

If you still have the WC intact, I think now is the best time to use it to make maximum gains out of it. It allows you to set yourself up for the BB or FH in GW36/37 and load up on City/Pool/Villa which gives you a solid core for the rest of the season.

Q: Kulusevski – sell or keep?

I don’t think Kulusevski is a hard sell if you have him. The fixture is favorable this week and he’s still cheap so expectations should be kept to realistic levels. However, it is worth noting that there are some murmurs on the Spurs fan forums...

... about Emerson being dropped for Lucas/Bergwijn – which could potentially mean that Kulusevski is used in a wing-back role.

Q: Robertson or Matip for the extra cash savings?

The argument to be made here is that Matip is being used in the PL with Konate preferred in the UCL so potentially picking Matip over Robertson allows for a £2.2m saving. However, I think Robertson is worth the premium as a...

... result of his haul potential. Since he registered his first double digit haul of the season in GW13, Robertson is ranked first for big chance involvements and is only behind Trent for xGi among defenders. He's averaging 7.9 FPL points per game ever since!

Q: Sterling – keep or sell for Son/KdB?

This is a tricky call now that Sterling has already had his rest in the UCL. I’d keep him this week with a view of selling him in GW36 for KdB/Son as his minutes will then be far from assured.

Q: In this section, I cover Weghorst.

Contrary to expectations, Weghorst has recorded six shots in the box, four chances created and three big chance involvements over the past couple of games. His stats have shot up since Dyche has left – he’s recorded at least one...

... big chance involvement in the three games ever since. He’s a solid option to utilise against Watford.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already covered Kane, Nketiah and Sterling in my thread. I’ve also selected Ward Prowse and Ramsey as they need just a goal and clean sheet which gives them a good chance of beating their Fantasy5 points targets.

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