Eliot A Cohen Profile picture
Apr 29, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
If it is true that General Gerasimov is assuming direct command of combat operations in Ukraine from a forward headquarters there are, as ever, two possibilities. 1/6
The first is that as the Russians launch the decisive maneuver(s) of the war, they want their very best field commander to complete these heroic tasks, orchestrating fire and maneuver, land air and sea as only a superb field commander can. And obviously, he’s the best! 2/6
The second is that maybe he is not the reincarnation of Suvorov, Zhukov, etc. but a guy who has been the top staff job for over a decade. And things are going badly. Maybe very badly. Or at least potentially very badly. 3/6
One cannot blame the Boss for having launched this incredibly stupid war that will leave Russia weakened, isolated, with a stronger and larger NATO on its doorstep, particularly if you lose it to those Ukrainian peasants! 4/6
So you send the Chief of the General Staff to the front with the message, “Fix this or don’t come home.” You now have a really good person to blame (nobody has ever heard of Dvornikov anyway). And at this point, you’re not worried about a successful general launching a coup. 5/6
…because this thing may be an epic disaster. So you need a really good scapegoat. As always truth may well lie somewhere in between, but I bet on #2. No reason to think Gerasimov is, in fact, likely to be a skilled theater commander plus issues @WarintheFuture points out. 6/6
…and now, to top it all, the Ukrainians may/may have winged him when they hit another headquarters killing at least one major general. Would he have been getting that far forward if things were going well? I doubt it. 1/5
The one dark result of this, though, is that the Russians may very well assume the US fed the Ukrainians the information to hit that headquarters while he was visiting. They will be, if possible, even more humiliated and furious. 2/5
Despite all the gallows humor going about (see my favorite, @DarthPutinKGB) the problem is that if there is one thing calculated to drive Russian leadership crazy it is being laughed at. Hated, no problem; feared, even better, but looking like a bad joke? 3/5
And, to make it all worse, this may drive them even further to the conclusion (a reasonable one) that the Ukrainians are providing the troops, but that behind them are the vast economic, military industrial and intelligence resources of the West. 4/5
One would hope that would drive Russia to look for a way out before it turns really terrible for them. But unfortunately, it seems likelier that they will double down on reckless/stupid/bloodthirsty/vicious. And Russia will suffer far more loss and humiliation as a result. 5/5

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Eliot A Cohen

Eliot A Cohen Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @EliotACohen

Nov 1, 2023
I don’t normally respond to the folly of colleagues & not in this forum. This is an exception. I wish to address the second sentence of that paragraph @Vali_Nasr celebrates: “The European, ethno-nationalist settler colonial project in Palestine has entered its final phase.” 1/6
This is eliminationist rhetoric. The only way the author could be satisfied is by the destruction of the State of Israel, which was, let us remember sanctioned by the United Nations in 1947. And we know what elimination of the state means - or should. It means massacre. 2/6
Settlers. Israeli Jew are no more “settlers” who deserve to be expelled than, say, Iranians who fled a revolution to this country, became citizens, professors, or deans. This notion was recently taken apart by @simonmontefiore in @theatlantic 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Feb 14, 2023
A number of layers of folly in this piece; strong thread to follow, beginning with the deliberate leak to the press of a dangerous view. washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/… 1/8
“We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can’t do anything and everything forever.” Whichever senior official said this to a reporter is either committing gross strategic malpractice, or something worse. 2/8
You DON’T telegraph to the world - and above all to the Russians - that you are getting ready to undercut your dependent ally. You DON’T whine. And you DON’T make excuses about Congress when the President has failed to make the case for the importance of Ukraine. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Sep 11, 2022
I believe it was Moshe Dayan who said that every enemy soldier fleeing the battlefield carries with him a deadly germ of infectious panic. We may be seeing this in Ukraine as well. If so, a broader process of Russian collapse may be under way. 1/4
Way, way too much of Western military analysis has focused on the tangibles - the things you can count. In the end, the things you can’t count - courage or fear, cohesion or distrust, leadership or its absence - matter just as much and some times more. 2/4
When the Ukraine war settles down students of war and military organizations need to reflect on why our judgments about the intangibles were not faulty so much as often absent. But in the meanwhile….3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1, 2022
Since I’m seeing lots of articles saying, in essence, the West is giving up (or should) on pushing Russia back at least to the 24 February line, I am re-upping this piece: 1/4 theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
There are people who should know better: who should know that we are barely three months into a bitter war; that the other side is feeling the strain too; that sticking it out is hard, but that giving up is a lot worse. It is foolish, and it is weak. 2/4
There continues to be strategic inanity: telling the other side what we won’t do (why, in Heaven’s name?) deterring ourselves, and wringing our hands at sacrifices that are insignificant compared with those of Ukraine, and playing Metternich when what is needed is Churchill. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
May 31, 2022
Some people unhappy with my criticism of POTUS’ excluding shipping weapons to Ukraine that can hit Russia. Two thoughts: (1) I take the President at his word. If the WH wants to clarify, let them hurry up and do so. “Of course he doesn’t mean it” is not much of an excuse. 1/2
What, precisely, would be wrong with giving the Ukrainians ATACMS, if that’s all that has been ruled off the table? The more heavily armed the Ukrainians are, the sooner the war ends, and the sooner the suffering stops. 2/2
One more thought: by the same logic you would (a) never sell/give the Ukrainians any fighter aircraft; (b) prohibit them from deploying any of our M777’s within 25 km or more of the border, and other absurdities.
Read 4 tweets
May 30, 2022
Until now I had thought that the Biden administration had somewhat recovered from the appalling incompetence of its Afghan withdrawal decision. Until now. 1/4
The President’s statement that the US will not give the Ukrainians weapons capable of taking the war into Russian territory is an act of strategic incoherence and incompetence. It is morally reprehensible as well. 2/4
When a smaller country is fighting desperately for its very life - and that is no cliché in this case - it makes no sense to prolong the agony, give the aggressor the advantage of home sanctuary, and show yourself to be fearful. But that is what the administration has done. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(