#Bitcoin price is sideways because of Wall St is selling futures contract in a macro risk-off trade. Meanwhile institutional money is scooping spot BTC at peak rates and moving to cold storage.
It's times like these I remember the Q4 2020 supply shock squeeze.
BTC price holding up well while equities tank and USD Index moons is testament to the unprecedented spot buying happening right now.
In other words: Investors already see BTC as a safehaven, it will take time for price to reflect. Wait for the futures sells to run out of ammo.
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1) on-chain (spot) demand keeps climbing 2) futures demand returns for the first time since November 3) capitulation has signalled 4) the market has fully reset 5) accumulation has already happened
Probably a decoupling will continue.
Risk-on/Risk-off correlations to equities is a short term effect. BTC trades this correlation due to short term speculators.
Bitcoin's internal demand fundamentals powered by its adoption curve is more powerful. Eventually the market decouples; the last time was Oct 2020.
1) on-chain (spot) demand keeps climbing 2) futures demand coming in strong for the first time since November
In the last 8 months as a merchant accepting BTC I have received 1474 BTC payments.
14% of them were conducted on the Lightning Network. These were seamless.
The BTC on-chain payments were a shit show.
Good luck to BCH people who thought BTC on-chain payments was the way.
My support staff dedicated hours every week to handle over and under payments.
Turns out many people pay by withdrawing from their exchange accounts and neglect to account for the exchange withdrawal fee.
I had one guy who accidentally sent me $200k (4 BTC at the time).
LN uses invoices and automates the payment process to remove human error; it's well thought out.
Accepting BTC on-chain is like having a teller accepting the cash the buyer fronts at the checkout. Except if they give you the wrong amount they have already left the store.
Today, the average payment on the BTC L1 network costs 55 cents in fees, the equivalent to 11kWh in electricity. This is 1/1000th of what a US house consumes in a year.
In other words, the NYT article stated a number 200x higher than the truth.
A single BTC transaction today contains 3.39 batched payments on average. This number continues to become more efficient as exchanges become more efficient in batching their withdrawals together.
I'm using $0.05 per kWh which is the average cost of electricity used by the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index.
IMO there's only 2 ways to gain significant wealth 1) Create or invest in a Cantillion Effect 2) Arbitrage
Examples of (1)
- Create a growth company (shares being created)
- VC / angel investment, buying "new money" early
- crypto investment, also buying new money being created
- be a bank, even better a central bank licensed to print money
(2) executes on inefficiencies in the market.
- Be global, utilise the best each country has to offer you (global citizens / digital nomads / multi-nationals corps)
- Route around capital controls preventing efficient markets e.g. Alameda doing 10% per day on the Kimchi premium
A short history of BTC democratisation, the picture book edition....
BTC went from $0.000007 (764 micro-pennies) to $69k. Unsurprising the BTC rich divested to fund buying small islands, large yachts, and lately, politicians.
Green: 1000+ BTC divesting since 2011
Yellow: 10k+ BTC divesting since 2011
Pink: 10-100 BTC divesting since 2017
I call this one "Financial Wars, A New Hope".
Green: Whales 1000+ BTC
Blue: Shrimps <1 BTC
Retail buys the dream. The plebs are gaining and hodling.
Bitcoin's Gini Coefficient continues to move towards democratisation of this Magic Internet Money.