Thread by @saxena_puru

1)Portfolio Apr-end -

$ADYEY $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MNDY $NU $OKTA $PLTR $QS $S $SHOP $SOFI $SNOW $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI

Short - $ARKK #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +612.94% (41.40%pa)
$ACWI +56.62% (8.23%pa)
$SPX +90.34% (12.02%pa)

Contd...

2) YTD return (2022)-

Portfolio (-)7.74%
$ACWI (-)13.40%
$SPX (-)13.31%

Biggest positions -

1) $GTLB 2) $DDOG 3) $S 4) $ADYEY 5) $SNOW

Contd...

3) Commentary -

April was a tough month for risk assets and stocks came under pressure due to (a) Fed policy and (b) elevated valuations.

This liquidity cycle was extreme (unprecedented easing followed by abrupt tightening), therefore we've seen huge moves in stocks in...

4)...both directions i.e. parabolic advance in 2020-21 followed by a brutal sell-off in 2021-22. Nevertheless, the cycle is playing out almost perfectly - the most speculative segments of the market got shot first and finally, the generals (mega caps) are coming under the pump...

5) If history is any guide, the economy will slow down sharply in Q2, the CPI print will come down and at some point, the market will cry for help and ask the Fed to "do something".

When that happens, the Fed will pause and/or back off and we will see an explosive rally in...

6)...stocks and other risk assets.

Interesting to note that the indices have sliced through their March lows but many high quality growth stocks are still trading above that level and they have started exhibiting relative strength.

It is likely that the recurring revenue...

7)...software businesses will attract investment dollars over the following weeks as they are more insulated from the broad economy.

Last month, I made a few changes to my portfolio. I invested in $NU $QS $UPST and sold out of $MELI $SE $TOST (due to weak growth estimates)....

8) After being a shareholder for several years, I hesitated before parting ways with $MELI and $SE but in this business, emotional thinking can seriously hurt one's portfolio.

When it comes to investing, the past is largely irrelevant - what matters are the future prospects.

9) At present, my growth stocks are fully hedged via a corresponding $ARKK short and I'm also net short #NQ_F

IMHO, the indices are likely to slide further towards their respective 40-month EMA's, so for now I'm maintaining my net short position.

This has been a super tough..

10)...environment for stocks and am pleased to see that my portfolio is down "only" 7.74%YTD when $ARKK is down 50.17%YTD, $NDX is down 21.23%YTD and $SPX is down 13.31%YTD.

Portfolio hedges + index shorts have helped in reducing my drawdown and this is why I hedge.

THE END