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May 1 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
LOL
People are exhausted - perhaps even inflation by natural extension. TBD.
Any #RateOfChange YoY on Inflation is fighting tough comps for the next 12 months.

Sure, maybe it goes higher with near term inertia….over time that’s not Repeatable Risk Management imho.
$XLF #Reflation
Any slowdown in CPI YoY Comps… on Supply chains &……

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More from @gamesblazer06

PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
May 2
S&P: April Manufacturing

“The rate of overall growth ‘Accelerated’ for the 3rd Month running & was the ‘Sharpest’ since last September.”

$XLF #Reflation
But 2s10s…
So let me see here…Consumer Spending + Manufacturing are Both “Sharply” “Accelerating”….. can someone explain what exactly is weak in the Real Economy? Oh right Powell jams us into Recession coz of Yesterday’s news priced in by 2s10s silly….”It will all end in tears.” Got it.
Read 4 tweets
PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
Apr 30
Yes, Tech got absolutely smoked…

Value now dragged down with Russia… given 2s10s Recession False Flags..& too aggressive Market Rate Hike Expectations…but we’ll get through Vol.. & the Fed acted decisively on “Inflation Expectations” .. Crushed it like a bug.. 5Y5Y at 2.74%
I Stress out Banks 9 ways 2Sunday… I’m not stressed. Banks fundamentals getting stronger as we speak. They r printing Trading Revs/NII that more than fund AOCI burn..Regs now Understating Strength..Coz ~5 turns of tangible leverage & almost 2 turns of SLR r Cash Bound by LCR.
U don’t even have 2run a DCF/Residual Income model to tell u there’s tons of Buffer 4 Credit “Normalization” that’s gonna happen w CECL in 2H22…

Even quick look at Loan Loss Reserves tells u 4example $JPM has $20B in Reserves & $2B of NCOs

= 10x Coverage 👇
$XLF #Margin4Error Image
Read 4 tweets
PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
Apr 24
First legit debate….
As far as the part about moving Private Leverage to the Public Balance Sheet.
Public Debt funded Reagan’s SDI, 9-11, 2008 GFC & Covid Near Depression (-5% 1Q20 & -31% 2Q20 GDP w 15% Unemployment)

Question is… has Public Debt/GDP Peaked at 135%?
Read 6 tweets
PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
Apr 22
$LQD Spanked -14% YTD

Scorned & abused by $ZROZ

Time for redemption getting closer?
IG Index trading at +119bps…
IG US Bank Index trading at +122bps… gets the benefit of Regionals that are still super tight… a good sign for Credit..if there was a Recession there’s no way Credit wouldn’t be punting Regionals…..
IG Banks would be way inside the IG Index if not for heavy Money Center GSIB TLAC Supply for the last really 12 months…this overhang might actually be coming to an end or at least slow down based on a few things:

1) SLR related Supply for HoldCo is needed less actually coz QT
Read 15 tweets
PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
Apr 22
DOW almost -1,000 today
$HYG looking like +10bps
Fin Subs only +6bps
$COIN not in Fin Subs… got Jack hammered 3 5/8s trading 78 1/4 - 9 1/4
Total bag of nails
Read 4 tweets
PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
Apr 20
No they aren’t. They are pretty much flat.. up a bit.. DQs are still the lowest in 50 Years at $JPM
$JPM 30 Day+ Auto & Home DQs Plunging…. Cards up +5bps to 1.09%

NCOs are at 1.37%… & they are reserved at 6.73%… You can drive a truck through that spread… Reserves get burned down before the P&L impact.

$XLF #Reflation ImageImage
Same deal with $BAC DQs… Image
Read 4 tweets

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