So let me see here…Consumer Spending + Manufacturing are Both “Sharply” “Accelerating”….. can someone explain what exactly is weak in the Real Economy? Oh right Powell jams us into Recession coz of Yesterday’s news priced in by 2s10s silly….”It will all end in tears.” Got it.
& what if CPI Comps roll over in 2H22…& the Most Crowded Commodities to the Moon Trade Unwinds on even a whiff of Inflation Deceleration?
Maybe -Ve Real Wages is Yesterday’s News?… What’s the Risk/Reward over next 12 months at +8.5% YoY?”
$XLF #Reflation#EarlyCycle
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Value now dragged down with Russia… given 2s10s Recession False Flags..& too aggressive Market Rate Hike Expectations…but we’ll get through Vol.. & the Fed acted decisively on “Inflation Expectations” .. Crushed it like a bug.. 5Y5Y at 2.74%
I Stress out Banks 9 ways 2Sunday… I’m not stressed. Banks fundamentals getting stronger as we speak. They r printing Trading Revs/NII that more than fund AOCI burn..Regs now Understating Strength..Coz ~5 turns of tangible leverage & almost 2 turns of SLR r Cash Bound by LCR.
U don’t even have 2run a DCF/Residual Income model to tell u there’s tons of Buffer 4 Credit “Normalization” that’s gonna happen w CECL in 2H22…
Even quick look at Loan Loss Reserves tells u 4example $JPM has $20B in Reserves & $2B of NCOs
IG Index trading at +119bps…
IG US Bank Index trading at +122bps… gets the benefit of Regionals that are still super tight… a good sign for Credit..if there was a Recession there’s no way Credit wouldn’t be punting Regionals…..
IG Banks would be way inside the IG Index if not for heavy Money Center GSIB TLAC Supply for the last really 12 months…this overhang might actually be coming to an end or at least slow down based on a few things:
1) SLR related Supply for HoldCo is needed less actually coz QT