Thread by @mattia_n

Kirill Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR), sat down with NV for a rather long interview. Here are some of the key takeaways for me. /1
nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/po…

Budanov says that the Russians postponed their referendum in Kherson because of a lack of local support and collaborators. They seem to have abandoned the idea for now and are probing alternative solutions (creating historical regions and managing Kherson from i.e. Crimea). /2

"They embarked on a path of genocide", Budanov says and confirms the reports that the Russians are removing grain and agricultural equipment. He adds that they do it to cause a "demographic" and "humanitarian" crisis to bend the local's will to collaborate. /3

The Intelligence Chief says that quite a lot of effective destruction of the enemy in the occupied territories is done through residents loyal to Kyiv: starting from operations to direct and adjust artillery and aviation, ending with special operations to eliminate enemies. /4

On the likely mass mobilization, Budanov asks: how will they explain it to their own people? Why does Russia, with its big army need mobilization, when, according to their official reports, everything goes according to plan? /5

He adds that before the start of true mobilization, the Russian army is actively checking what they actually have available in terms of equipment and outfits. But he expects a mass mobilization "in the near future", possibly on 9 May. /6

Budanov comments on the visit of the RU Chief of Staff to the frontline and says that this first and foremost reveals that the Russians have problems with personnel and their offensive operations in the Donbas. Several high-ranking commanders had to manage battalions. /7

Interestingly, Budanov says that the media reports about purges within the FSB are exaggerated both quantitatively and qualitatively. Some heads, like the one of Sergey Beseda in charge of operational planning in #Ukraine, rolled but this does not qualify as a major purge. /8

He hints that Sergey Beseda story is connected with the former head of the Opposition Platform Victor Medvechuk (but does not provide any details) but Bodanov adds that RU seems to have dropped Medvechuk for good and does not want to get him out. /9

At the end of the interview, Bodanov says he sees two scenarios for ending the war: the disintegration of Russia or the removal of Putin and relative preservation of RU. Giving Putin a face-saving way out of the war is almost impossible, he says. /10

The last points warrant the most discussion. What is the 🇺🇦 endgame and how does the West help to achieve it? Weakening RU (US goal?) can only be a part of it. Driving RU out of 🇺🇦 incl. the entire Donbas AND Crimea seem desirable for UKR but is it realistic at the moment? /end