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🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦

@Jkylebass

May 4

@federalreserve

As the FED @federalreserve searches for candidates to fill Fed Governor positions, their team is ranking new candidates on 4 categories: 1. Economics 2.Financial Markets/Banking 3.Leadership 4.Diversity. They recently had one open position down to a handful 1/4

candidates whereby they were then ranked on the new system. The Fed kills any candidates who fail the “diversity” category regardless of their capacity to understand, govern, and overall merit. The FED is the single most important economic 2/4

Institution in the world. Given the inflationary mess the US and the world face today, walking away from the absolute top candidates due to the diversity issue is incredibly short-sighted and doing our country and the world a major disservice in our time of extreme need. 3/4

Read 5 tweets

🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦

@Jkylebass

May 2

When reassuring yourselves about various levels of FX reserves, it’s imperative that we all remember what happened to Korea during the last Asian Currency Crisis. Korea was showing the largest pile of USD fx reserves in Asia. When the Thai baht broke the peg in 97’, 1/9

Investors were sanguine about Korea due to the reserve balance they were reporting. The problem was that the Korean central bank had ‘lent’ those reserves to their banks who had spent them defending the peg. The finance minister of Korea called US Treasury Secretary in a 2/9

panic and told him Korea had a desperate need for a USD loan from the US Treasury/FED. When rigid structures go south, all of the math, all of the belief,and then all of the reserves vaporize at such breathtaking speed. Those unprepared at the outset couldn’t get positioned 3/9

Read 9 tweets

🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦

@Jkylebass

Apr 28

The yen is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for Asian currencies. BOJ Governor Kuroda has engaged in several “unlimited” and very public bond buying operations. Their Faustian bargain on rates has two major problems that act simultaneously against Japan: 1. Every bond 1/6

purchased by the BOJ injects that many more Yen into the system. 2. Rates differentials between other developed economies (primarily the U.S.) causes Mrs. Watanabe to immediately take those Yen and invest abroad at much higher rates (+250 bps now).The third rail and lingering 2/6

Explosive problem is confidence in the BOJ eroding daily. These ‘disorderly’ moves in the Yen break confidence in control. Market forces can turn into a panic 😱 once participants realize the yen is completely unhinged (happening now). Once lack of confidence on 3/6

Read 6 tweets

🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦

@Jkylebass

Apr 13

Another take on China’s shutdown of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, etc. China is desperately in need of crude oil, LNG, food, basic materials, base metals, and more. Putin’s invasion/massacre has created additional energy scarcity, inflation, and skyrocketing food inflation. 1/12

Whilst China hasn’t had any material problems with the virus from Wuhan in the past, it’s interesting that their draconian lockdowns (in conjunction with telegraphing the purchase of fewer cargos of LNG and crude) are forcing global economists to ratchet growth expectations 2/12

lower whilst concurrently shifting future demand projections for commodities lower. Everything China desperately needs to acquire is trading down in price as a result of the lockdowns. If we all take a look back, the primary driver of China’s current account moving into 3/12

Read 12 tweets

🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦

@Jkylebass

Apr 7

@TwitterSafety

The PLA’s bots have intensified their smear campaigns against inconvenient truths about China on US social media. I will post the screenshots of a few new ‘followers’ below: #China #Bot @TwitterSafety @Twitter #ChinaExposed 1/6

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1509240290413977609

These bots follow Twitter profiles that spread truth about Xi’s China in an effort to attack postings they find to be offensive. They share similar characteristics with: 1. Number and similarity of their followers 2. They aren’t followed by anyone you follow 2/6

3. They typically use pseudonyms 4. Mostly (but not exclusively) joined Twitter in the past two years 5. They use American flags and political phrases in their profiles in a feeble attempt to mask their identity, location, and nationality 3/6

Read 7 tweets

🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦

@Jkylebass

Mar 16

Given Putin’s complete and soulless evil, I was compelled to peruse Churchill’s 1st volume of 5 books on WWII. In Churchillian elegance he says: “It’s my purpose, as one who lived and acted in these days, first to show how easily the tragedy of the Second World War could have 1/6

been prevented; how the malice of the wicked was reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous; how the structure and habits of democratic states, unless they are welded into larger organisms, lack those elements of persistence and conviction which can alone give security 2/6

to humble masses; how, even in matters of self-preservation, no policy is pursued for even 10 or 15 years at a time. We shall see how the counsels of prudence and restraint may become the prime agents of mortal danger; how the middle course adopted from desires for safety 3/6

Read 6 tweets

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