There’s lots of talk about Putin declaring war and starting mass mobilisation on May 9th. It might happen or it might not. Safe to say it would be a high risk strategy for Putin. Why? Short🧵/1
https://twitter.com/global_mil_info/status/1521291331095699459
1) It would be an implicit admission of failure of “the special military operation”, which has been highly successful in the regime’s own narrative, 2) What would be the goal of the war? Conquering all of Ukraine? War on Ukrainians? Would be troublesome to define scope /2
3) Re. practicalities, it would take months to get combat-ready soldiers to the battlefield. Are weapons, kit and supplies available? How long would it take to get industry ready? 🇷🇺 forces in 🇺🇦 may well be depleted and have been pushed back by then /3
Bottom line: I won’t exclude the possibility that Putin declares war, but the opposite is also entirely possible. If Putin does, it will be high risk and may also lead to his downfall. END @thinkeuropa #dkforsvar
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