Thread by @scotlandscoeff1

Morning a'body - lots of co-efficient and UEFA competition chat floating about after last night's announcement from @UEFA that 🇷🇺's teams will be banned for season '2022-'23.

Full statement: bit.ly/3sa498B (see 2022/23 UEFA club competitons + links for access table)

What does this mean for 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿's teams? Well we now have more certainty on access positions for next season, as well as being able to discount the possibility of away trips to 🇷🇺. Let's take a look on a team by team basis...

Starting with champions elect @CelticFC. They need only 3pts from the remaining 3 games to clinch the title.

That now 100% guarantees Celtic #UCL group stage football next season.

Regardless of anything else.

Naturally the next question for @CelticFC fans will be, what Pot will they be in? The answer is almost certainly Pot 4. With a club co-eff of 33.000 that shouldn't really be a surprise.

However... with qualifiers and league places across Europe in the balance, you never know.

@CelticFC need 8 clubs to reach the #UCL groups with lower club co-eff

Looking at the projected qualifiers (assuming seeds progress), they all have more than 33.000

Really they need clubs like Betis/Sociedad, Frieburg/Koln, Monaco/Nice, and Union to qualify via their leagues

However, let's focus on the MASSIVE positives.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 can add 0.8 co-eff pts to our 2022/23 tally before a ball is even kicked thanks to the #UCL group stage spot (4 bonus pts / 5 teams = 0.8pts). That's the equivalent of 4 wins in the qualifiers.

Looking at @RangersFC now... obviously given Celtic's strong position, the likelihood is 2nd place in league.

Firstly, Rangers can SKIP all the following bumpf if they win the #UEL.

Do that and they are into #UCL group stage and guaranteed to be in Pot 1.

Rangers winning the #UEL has absolutely no knock on co-efficient or access benefits to any other Scottish team (so knock those questions right on the head).

It changes nothing for Celtic, does not bump Hearts up to #UCL, nor has no bearing on our #UECL representatives.

Two games, win them both (in any way), @RangersFC are into #UCL groups stages ALONGSIDE @CelticFC - which would be the first time two 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 clubs made #UCL groups since '07/'08

It also earns 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 ANOTHER 0.8 co-eff pts before a ball is kicked, putting our 2022/23 tally to 1.6pts

If @RangersFC fall short in the #UEL, then (as likely league runners-up) they will enter #UCL League Path Q3. Regardless of anything else.

The good news for fans is that they will be seeded in both Q3 and PO ties.

Let's look at how that could look. As usual, this is only a snapshot, league positions could change, and it assumes that seeds always qualify.

There is one caveat to this which is IF the #UEL winner ALSO qualifies for next season's #UCL group stage via their domestic league, the 3rd placed team from France transfer to #UCL so the potential qualification path would look like this:

More or less the same, minus a potential trip to Turkey if #UEL winner also qualifies for #UCL

Point of note that with Leipzig losing 4th place in Germany, no team left in #UEL is currently on track to qualify for #UCL groups via their league.

The (?) against Dynamo Kiev relates to the fact that we can't possibly know at this stage if any Ukrainian club will be able to safely host/play games.

I very much hope they can.

This is purely an assumption, but you'd imagine UEFA would take it on a case by case basis - and if a club drawn in any round was unable to fulfil a fixture, either a bye would be given to the opponent or a 3-0 default win

Let's hope for many reasons that does not need to happen

Make no mistake - the #UCL League Path is a tough qualification route, as shown above.

The good news is that now Rangers would start in Q3 (rather than as previously in Q2), they are GUARANTEED to drop into #UEL group stage if they lose (either in Q3 or PO)

Trust me on that point - I get questions all the time. It's guaranteed to drop into #UEL group stage.

While there's no co-eff bonus pts here, it gives 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 another 6 games (on top of Celtic's #UCL 6) to earn co-eff pts.

@RangersFC fans might also ask re: seedings.

Again it's tricky to say 100%. Rangers current club co-eff of 46.250 puts them in a good place (better if they can add to that in #UEL SF and F)

#UCL they may be Pot 3 (via qualification)
#UEL they could be Pot 2

Let's move onto @JamTarts - already guaranteed #UEL PO spot, which if unsuccessful GUARANTEES to drop down into #UECL group stage.

Pause on that for a second - 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 have a guaranteed AT LEAST 26 European games next season (incl. qualifiers) to earn co-eff pts.

@JamTarts fans don't need to worry about seeding at all in the #UEL PO - they will be in Priority Group (PG) 1 and will face a team in either PG 3 or PG 4. Those teams will come from a previous qualification round, split into two paths - Champions and League

#UEL Q3 Champions Path is made up of teams who have dropped out of #UCL Champions Path Q2.

#UEL Q3 League Path is made up of cup winners from Cyprus and Serbia PLUS two teams eliminated from #UCL League Path Q2

As things stand, and again assuming seeds progress, this is who @JamTarts could face.

Important point to remember is that there is no seeding or country protection in #UEL Q3 show Hearts could face ANY of these teams.

Last point on @JamTarts is that regardless of #UEL or #UECL group stage football they are almost absolutely certain to be in Pot 4

Also there is the possibility that if Rangers win #UEL it removes 🇨🇾 CW's and Fenerbache as potential opponents due to access changes.

Which leaves 4th and 5th in Premiership... currently @dundeeunitedfc and @RossCounty respectively.

5th enters #UECL at Q2 stage. 4th at Q3 stage. Nothing will change that. At all.

Both clubs (and indeed Motherwell should they take either spot) have a club co-eff of 7.220

Here's how Q2 could look -> again as things stand, assumes seeds progress

And here is how Q3 could look

It's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that any one of @dundeeunitedfc @RossCounty or @MotherwellFC could win ties in Q2 & even Q3 with the right draw. But equally, we all know there's no guarantee and there are some very good and European experienced sides in there

Here's how the #UECL PO round could look - should any of 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿's teams upset the odds and progress beyond their seeding

What I think we can hope for is some co-eff points picked up in #UECL qualification - remember it's 0.2pts for a win, 0.1pt for a draw in qualifiers.

Every little counts, but maybe it's too far a jump for a FOURTH Scottish team to earn European group stage football,