📍BREAKING—here it comes—Jonathan Karl tests positive for #COVID19 on Monday after attending the @WHCA’s dinner—sitting next to Kim Kardashian and talking one on one with Biden at #WHCD—yes that dinner we epidemiologists all warned about.
2) We epidemiologists and aerosol scientists have warned about the poor ventilation and high density being a bad setup for almost guaranteed transmission at @WHCA dinner if anyone in the audience had subclinical (undetected) virus. Welp and it happened.
4) People need to apologize to @Jadabird - she shouted about this (while on assignment covering the event) that night. People were rude to her. She was right.
5) the crazy ironic here… @trevornoah’s superspreading joke ended talking about Kardashian’s boyfriend Pete Davidson… who was seated at the same table of as the first identified case from the WHCD. Damn.
6) To be clear & fair, @jonkarl is a great ABC News reporter— honored at #WCHD for his Jan. 6 reporting that "this was not just a riot, it wasn’t just an attack on the capital, it was an assault on American democracy."
But he did hug a lot of people.
7) In public health, there is an old joke saying— “The solution to pollution is dilution…” or ventilation. And the #WHCD’s ventilation levels, as indexed by CO2 levels measured by @nalticx’s attendee volunteer, was horrible no good very very bad!!! Normal outdoors is ~400.
8) here is what happened—the CO2 first rose in a private suite…. Then they exited the suite to goto the hallway before the ballroom. Then at 8pm, CO2 levels started spiking in @HiltonWash ballroom once everyone entered. And it stayed high ~2 hours except for a bathroom break.
9) UPDATE: the @whca’s president @stevenportnoy now says he is aware of “a small number of cases, in the single digits,” of people who attended the #WHCD dinner.
➡️I think more likely to come — it took several days (over a week) to realize the scope of the Gridiron outbreak.
10) crap—just personally learned a friend who attended WHCD is now positive. And I don’t even personally know that many people who attended it. Statistically that’s a bad sign as an epidemiologist who’s trying to run the numbers in my head.
11) Also, many might not have had symptoms to be tested yet, because symptom onset from Omicron can take time— see outbreak chart from a Christmas Party event in Norway of 117 people. The WHCD is a high density ballroom of 2600 people for 2 hours.
12) Another reporter at the #WHCD dinner event just privately disclosed to me his/her positive #COVID19 test. Again, the number of people I know who attended the WHCD fits on just 2 hands. And I already know 2 cases out of the handful. Oy. That’s not looking good.
13) Another reporter from VOA has tested positive. I two more other journalists who have not made it public yet. There’s probably dozens now.
14) Small reminder that the newest fastest surging variant #BA2121 is known to be partly resistant to neutralization from someone who was previously #BA1 Omicron infected (Dec-Jan). Don’t think you’re immune if you had COVID this winter. Immunity wanes and #Ba2121 is evasive!
15) Honestly, @Trevornoah’s speech was amazing. Not just roasting about the superspreader event… full speech here;
16) reminder— YOU CAN BE SILENTLU INFECTIOUS with Omicron before you test positive for it! This is what happened at the #WHCD and many other outbreaks. You need more than just testing (which is good like a rake with leaves 🍁, but imperfect wall).
18) I feel for @jadabird - she was asked to cover the WHCD dinner on her assignment, but now has to miss her next trip assignment because she got COVID. She was worried at the dinner too. Her suggestion is speak up to your boss if you don’t feel comfortable going.
NEW—FDA has issued remarks about Paxlovid and the recurrence / rebound 🏀 of positive #COVID19 after a negative. FDA admits it definitely happens but claims it’s only 1-2% with rebound in the trials, & no clinical guidance change. But I count more than 1%. fda.gov/drugs/news-eve…
2) Based on lay reports Im hearing everywhere, it’s seems way more than 1-2% having a rebound positive after taking Paxlovid. A lot more.
3) Im originally trained as a clinical epidemiologist, and evaluating clinical data. And the sheer volume of reports Im seeing, it can’t possibly by just 1-2% rebound. Just eyeballing the figure from this Pfizer charge shows way more than 1-2% with a rebound of viral load.
2) What is excess deaths? It’s the excess above the average per capita mortality rate across 2015-2019. It’s how many more people have died above historical rates. It captures COVID and indirectly those who also died because they couldn’t reach the hospital in time.
3) most of the excess deaths are #COVID19. And the CDC acknowledges others are due to people delaying their care because of COVID’s hospital surge and crush on the healthcare system. That’s equally tragic, and indirectly also COVID caused.
BREAKING—US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just tested positive for #COVID19. He recently attended the @whca dinner event with 2600+ people, where reporters from many media outlets have also now tested positive. ➡️ This Vf headline was on point. #WHCD#COVIDisAirborne
2) We epidemiologists and aerosol scientists have warned about the poor ventilation and high density being a bad setup for almost guaranteed transmission at @whca dinner if anyone in the audience had subclinical (undetected) virus. And indeed the superspreading event happened.
Story from a Paxlovid user—@RossR8 was positive to til 6, tested negative days 7-12. Doctor said he’s not contagious anymore—he didn’t buy that because of Paxlovid rebound🏀 risk. He tests positive again on day 13 & symptomatic—thankfully protects his pregnant wife from #COVID19!
2) We have known about Paxlovid rebound risk for a while. I warned about it before. I took Paxlovid too after my April COVID had suffered a 1-day symptomatic rebound myself. Pfizer data submitted to the FDA quietly warned about it too on days 10-14!
3) I specifically warned about rebound not because it is severe (it’s likely not because Paxlovid is a really good 90% hospitalization risk reduction drug), but because rebound could trigger another outbreak once someone is complacent.
Let this sink in—“The republicans who said ‘my body my choice over the COVID vaccine’ now say I have no control over my body (to not be forced to give birth to baby of a rapist)”. Let that hypocrisy sink in.
Damn you @Delta—5 million honeybees 🐝 bound for Alaska perished from heat & starvation after Delta re-routed the flight✈️ to Atlanta—left 🐝s to die on the hot tarmac. (Then again heartless Delta CHO @henrytingmd doesn’t care about human pax lives either) nowthisnews.com/news/nearly-5-…
3) in case you all want to know why I loathe Delta’s @henrytingmd — he has been dismissive of COVID for a long time. This is what disinfo Delta put out last month. Shame. ajc.com/news/atlanta-a…