This is a great @HN_Schlottman product. The green squares are Brigades, which normally have between 2 & 4 fighting units. There are a few takeaways I wanted to share in a short (for me) thread… 1/7
https://twitter.com/hn_schlottman/status/1521529499296350209
2/7 First, noting that these maps will always have some inaccuracies, the Russians are still not concentrating mass on any ‘main effort’. They continue to ‘penny packet’ their ground forces across a wide front. It would be interesting if the same holds for their Air Force.
3/7 Russia is not building the combat ratios needed for an operational breakthrough in the east. I know some don’t like these, but they are useful planning tools. A minimum of 3:1 is good, 4-5:1 is better, when on the attack.
4/7 Combat ratios generally also assume the competent use of fires, noting Russia normally has an advantage here.
5/7 They need it, because Russian tactical leadership, combined arms integration and logistics is poor. While minor improvements have been noted, Russian battlefield learning is yet to have a significant impact. And it is an institutional, not tactical problem.
6/7 So, it is unlikely we will see any Russian operational breakthrough that would compromise Ukraine’s overall eastern defensive scheme of maneuver, at least in the short term.
7/7 But defending is also very expensive in manpower, weapons, ammunition, fuel, etc. Ukraine will need continued Western aid to hold and then eventually push back the Russians in the east. End.
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