Thread by @Usherwood

While we wait for #AE22 #NI22 results, here's a quick run-down of Northern Ireland Protocol-related things, that might be of use in the weeks to come

1/

First up, there are only a limited number of options open to UK govt to change/remove the NIP, under international law or the Protocol itself

2/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1437361759006908416?s=20&t=meQJQ2xyHrDUI2cnp5__qA

One of those options is our old friend, Art.16 NIP on safeguards

Short-term, ltd suspension to have talks, nothing more

3/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1434810766914379776?s=20&t=meQJQ2xyHrDUI2cnp5__qA

Also useful to consider how any mis-use of Art.16 can lead to big problems, including EU penalties and suspension of the Trade & Cooperation Agt

4/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1447485631358177283?s=20&t=meQJQ2xyHrDUI2cnp5__qA

Another option being floating around involves Art.18 on consent of @niassembly (which will be materially affected by #AE22 #NI22 results)

5/

I worked through that one here, but very short version is that suspension of NIP via Art.18 requires the active decision of MLAs to do so, which UK govt can't obviously force

6/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1517379948218134529?s=20&t=meQJQ2xyHrDUI2cnp5__qA

Which leaves the domestic dis-application route

That also isn't permitted under international law

7/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1519567910536159232?s=20&t=meQJQ2xyHrDUI2cnp5__qA

Of course, all this has been known for ages (check when I made most of that content), so any moves by NI or London politicians to press on should be assumed to be done in full knowledge of the consequences

8/

Any sustainable solution is going to come from one of the legal paths marked out at the top of this thread, all of which really need UK to work with EU, not against it

#SunAndTheNorthWind

9/

Of course, sustainable and equitable solutions to benefit of Northern Ireland and its E-W/N-S situation might not be everyone's top priority here

/end