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Elise Gould Profile picture
@eliselgould
May 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.

White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.

(More volatile series noted)
The labor market bounce back remains very strong as job growth over the last year averaged 550k a month. Strikingly stronger than the prolonged recovery from the Great Recession. The labor market is now just below pre-pandemic levels.
Private sector employment bounce back remains significantly stronger than public sector. After falling much further, private-sector employment is now 0.4% from pre-pandemic levels while public-sector employment is still 3.5% below and has seen little improvement in months.
The largest gains in April were in leisure and hospitality, up 78,000 jobs. Each month gains in that sector eat away at its jobs shortfall, currently 1.4 million below pre-pandemic levels.
No matter how you look at it, nominal wage growth is moderating (and decidedly not accelerating). On a quarterly or monthly basis, nominal wage growth is actually falling even in the face of continued inflation. We can keep labor markets tight without feeding inflation.
Taking into considering population growth since February 2020, the labor market is facing a 3.5 million job shortfall. That said, given recent job growth, the labor market is on track to return to pre-pandemic labor market conditions by the end of 2022.
For more jobs day graphics, please visit @EconomicPolicy's jobs day landing page: epi.org/indicators/une….

Huge thank you to Katie deCourcy, @jorjorwell_, and @Dannperr for pulling the data and updating the figures!

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More from @eliselgould

Elise Gould Profile picture
Jul 5
Payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, with notable downward revisions in the prior two months. Employment growth is expected to slow as the labor market approaches full employment. The Federal Reserve should get a clear message that we are not in a hot labor market. Image
The slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in June—ending a 30-month streak of at or below 4.0% unemployment—was largely due to an increase in labor force participation, as more workers sought jobs. Employment increased as the employment-to-population rate held steady. Image
June's gain of 206,000 jobs is on par with the average gain over the prior 12 months. There were notable increases in health care and social assistance as well as in public sector employment, primarily at the state and local level. Image
Read 8 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Sep 12, 2023
Poverty increased sharply in 2022 due to safety net cutbacks and inflation. Official poverty measurement misses the valuable tax credits and other assistance provided in the wake of the pandemic. Likewise it also misses the huge uptick in poverty when they were allowed to expire. Image
Comprehensive measures of poverty—specifically those based on the Supplemental Poverty Measures—showed very sharp increases. The unfortunate headline from today's report is that child poverty more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, rising from 5.2% to 12.4%. Image
The spike in child poverty was severe, erasing nearly all of the gains made from the valuable pandemic safety net measures, notably the expanded child tax credit. The spike was most striking for Black and Hispanic children, hitting 17.8% and 19.5%, respectively. Image
Read 4 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Sep 12, 2023
New data out from the Census Bureau:


Poverty increased sharply in 2022 due to safety net cutbacks and inflation shock.

What we also know from other data is that a strong labor market signals a better 2023.

For more: census.gov/newsroom/press…
epi.org/press/poverty-…
Today’s Census Bureau data on income, poverty, and health insurance in 2022 confirmed many of the predictions made in our preview last week.
epi.org/blog/2022-cens…
Median household income fell 2.3% as the inflationary shock of 2022 overwhelmed the benefits of a strong labor market (more hours worked and relatively fast nominal wage growth). Image
Read 8 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Jun 2, 2023
Labor market story is strong overall for May with some notable survey divergence:

Payroll data solid
- payroll employment increased a healthy 339k
- nominal wage growth continues to decelerate

Household data mixed
- rise in unemployment (+.9pp Black unemp)
- drop in employment
The job report for May shows notable employment gains in education and health services, professional and business services, government, and leisure and hospitality in May. Image
Gains in both leisure and hospitality and government employment are particularly welcome news as they remain the sectors with the largest job shortfalls since before the pandemic. Those deficits are steadily shrinking month after month. Image
Read 11 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
May 31, 2023
Job openings edged up in April 2023, but remain close to their level two years ago (in April 2021) and significantly lower than in the height of labor market churn in the pandemic recovery. Layoffs and discharges decreased in April while hires held steady and quits softened. Image
Job openings have generally been decreasing over the last year, slowly but steadily moving closer to their pre-pandemic levels, though clearly not there yet. Much of the elevated rates we've seen may have been because of the increased labor market churn and not net new demand. Image
After increasing in March, layoffs dropped in April closer to its February level. Hires held steady in April, while quits continued to edge down.

Layoffs still remain significantly lower than their prepandemic levels while hires and quits are still elevated. Image
Read 5 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023
The labor market continues strong in February 2023, payroll jobs up 311,000. Prime-age EPOPs back to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate up along with labor force participation.
After increasing 504,000 in January, payroll employment increased by 311,000 in February. The most jobs added were in the leisure and hospitality sector, up 105,000, while jobs were lost in the information sector, down 25,000.
The gains in leisure and hospitality continue to chip away at the leisure and hospitality shortfall since millions of jobs were lost in the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality is now down 410,000 jobs since February 2020.
Read 9 tweets

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