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Elise Gould Profile picture
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May 6 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.

White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.

(More volatile series noted)
The labor market bounce back remains very strong as job growth over the last year averaged 550k a month. Strikingly stronger than the prolonged recovery from the Great Recession. The labor market is now just below pre-pandemic levels.
Private sector employment bounce back remains significantly stronger than public sector. After falling much further, private-sector employment is now 0.4% from pre-pandemic levels while public-sector employment is still 3.5% below and has seen little improvement in months.
The largest gains in April were in leisure and hospitality, up 78,000 jobs. Each month gains in that sector eat away at its jobs shortfall, currently 1.4 million below pre-pandemic levels.
No matter how you look at it, nominal wage growth is moderating (and decidedly not accelerating). On a quarterly or monthly basis, nominal wage growth is actually falling even in the face of continued inflation. We can keep labor markets tight without feeding inflation.
Taking into considering population growth since February 2020, the labor market is facing a 3.5 million job shortfall. That said, given recent job growth, the labor market is on track to return to pre-pandemic labor market conditions by the end of 2022.
For more jobs day graphics, please visit @EconomicPolicy's jobs day landing page: epi.org/indicators/une….

Huge thank you to Katie deCourcy, @jorjorwell_, and @Dannperr for pulling the data and updating the figures!

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More from @eliselgould

Elise Gould Profile picture
May 5
On Jobs Day tomorrow, I'll be watching employment growth, rising labor force participation, and wage growth. Wage growth has stopped rising and might actually be showing signs of slowing in the last two quarters.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
The large compositional effects of the pandemic on wage growth are now largely behind us. Wage growth continues to be slower than inflation, and there’s no real sign of that changing anytime soon. So far, wage growth continues to dampen price growth rather than feed it.
Given fiscal investments at the scale of the problem over the last two years and the resulting trends in payroll employment growth and labor force participation, the labor market is on track for a historically fast and full recovery by the end of 2022.
Read 10 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Mar 9
The phrase "little changed" appears 12 times in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January 2022 (bls.gov/news.release/p…).

Job openings, hires, and separations were little changed as the quits rate decreased to 2.8% in January. Image
The hires rate remains higher than the quits rate in every major industry. This indicates that when workers quit, they are taking other jobs-likely in the same sector-not dropping out of the labor force altogether. Image
High quits are decidedly not translating into workers leaving the labor force in large numbers. In fact, according to the latest jobs data for February, we are seeing a steady return of workers back to the labor market (many of whom are getting jobs).
Read 5 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Mar 4
Today's jobs report shows a strong 678,000 jobs added in February 2022 with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% as participation rises. Two years since the pre-pandemic business cycle peak, the labor market continues its strong and speedy recovery.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
This month, the household survey and the establishment survey tell a very consistent story of a continuing strong recovery. Both show significant gains in employment and the unemployment rate is falling for the "right" reasons as more workers return to the labor market.
Private-sector employment is now only 1% away from pre-pandemic levels. This figure says it all. Unlike in the aftermath of the Great Recession, policymakers provided relief at the scale of the problem and did what was needed to spur a strong recovery this time around.
Read 9 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Jan 4
Jobs openings ticked down in November, while hires were little changed. Quits continued to be high, hitting a new series high in November, notably increasing in accommodation and food services.
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/p…
Job openings fell between October and November 2021 by over a half million (-529k) to 10.6 million. The job openings rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest it's been since June (but still historically high). The largest decrease in openings was in accommodation and food services (-261k).
Hires increased in November to 6.7 million, the hires rate ticked up as well. Quits also ticked up to 4.5 million in November. The net is more workers taking jobs. @hshierholz provides a useful thread here on those numbers:
Read 5 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Dec 3, 2021
Today's jobs report tells two different stories of the November labor market:
-payroll survey is notably weaker, showing an economy that added only 210,000 jobs in November
-household survey saw 1.1 million job gains, a drop in the unemployment rate and increase in participation
Even with the weaker than expected November payroll numbers, job growth so far has already topped 6.1 million for 2021. As long as Nov is a blip, the 2021 average rate of 555,000 per month still means we are on track for a full recovery by the end of 2022.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Today's jobs report is a puzzle given the vastly different story told by the 2 surveys but I tend to lean more heavily on the payroll survey b/c of less volatility. My first EPI pub provides rationale:
epi.org/publication/br….

Upward revisions may come in future releases. 🤞
Read 12 tweets
Elise Gould Profile picture
Nov 5, 2021
A welcome return to solid job growth in October as the recent surge in the pandemic recedes. Payroll employment grew 531,000 in October after a disappointing September (now 312,000 with with significant upward revisions).
bls.gov/news.release/p…
Private payrolls grew by a 604,000 while govt employment fell by 73,000 in October. The losses in the public sector were primarily in state and local education jobs due in part to seasonal adjustment factors pulling down what were otherwise mild gains. See epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Within the private sector, there were promising gains in leisure and hospitality (+164k), professional and business services (+100k), manufacturing (+60k), and transportation and warehousing (+54k).
Read 11 tweets

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