Henrik Profile picture
May 7, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
PetroTal is currently preparing to drill well 11H in early May with a late June or early July completion. Next to 8H well that had initial flow of 8500bopd. At 60-65$ netback 10H can have pay-back time of ~30days. #PTAL $TAL.V
Minem reaches agreements on station 5 with indigenous organizations in Loreto. Important step to get ONP back online, that can enable Petrotal to produce 20-25k bopd and receive the true-up payments. #PTAL $TAL.V andina.pe/agencia/notici…
Once Petrotal hit the upper right corner in the Matrix here, cash build will be extremely fast. We are talking possible above 70m$ FCF per quarter. FCF/Mcap is just ridiculous. #PTAL $TAL.V
Despite all production issues Petrotal delivers growth and there is a lot of drilling and production growth ahead. Look at 3P production graph below. #PTAL $TAL.V
Another great Petrotal graph on 3P production and Cash-flow. Still early days, Bretana is beast. #PTAL $TAL.V
Need some patience but I think 2022 guidance is still on track. Buybacks/Dividends planned form Q4-22 , might be a few months delayed but will come. #PTAL $TAL.V
Look at the netbacks at 100$ oil. Now oil is 113$ and Petrotal expanded the Brazil route. Netbacks for Brazil might actually be around 70-75$ at the moment. Thereby Petrotal are catching up again towards guidance after some disturbance in Q1. #PTAL $TAL.V

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More from @Henrik115

Jan 29
I have bought into a new high conviction gold mining play Asante Gold $ASE.v. Ramping up to 400k oz gold production in 2026 and later 500k oz in 2028. Mcap ~1,3bn USD. With current gold price you look at yearly operational cash flows of size similar as mcap . 1/x Image
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2025 Asante suffered from high costs due to a lot of waste mining and delays. Share price was under pressure from need to bring in capital, delays and additional PP at low price. Ghana will also likely increase royalties by 5%. This caused share price to lag the gold price. 2/x Image
A Grok search says 400k oz gold producers are typically valued at 4-10bn usd. But Asante mcap is roughly 1,3bn usd with 300m usd debt and a rather small gold stream. To put in perspective another African 400k oz producer Allied Gold was bought earlier this week for 4bn usd. 3/x Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 1, 2025
Cerrado Gold $CERT.v webcast link this is probably the company that I am must excited about short term although Q3 financials were not great. I will explain below 1/xedge.media-server.com/mmc/p/cgg4zi3s
$Cert.v Achived gold price lag behind but from year end there is no more hedging. I created a simplified model below to show how operating cash flow will increase. With increasing production and margins expanding we are looking at doubling of operational cash flows. 2/x Image
Q3-25 included a larger tax payment as it became clear that MDN need to start paying taxes due to increased profitability and that it already used up accelerated amortization. Going forward I think we can assume 25-30% tax on AISC margin. 3/x
Read 7 tweets
Oct 19, 2025
$CERT.v is ramping up to 5-6k oz per month. What does this mean going into 2026? AISC expected 1500-1800$/oz. Assume they sell gold at 4000$ or 3500$ in case a gold price correction. It still means we can expect roughly 2000$/oz margin. At 60k oz that is 120m$ operational CF 1/x
$CERT.v recently expanded their drilling program at MDN aggressively. One of the reasons to do this is that they got low utilized capacity at their CIL plant. The heap leach operations will deliver 40-50k oz per annum in the next years but the CIL plant could also do 50k oz. 2/x
This means that if the exploration at MDN turn out very successful $CERT.v might not just be able to extend LOM, they might also be able to ramp up production further and significantly add to that project 120m$ operational CF. Mcap is just 138m$ and soon debt free. 3/X
Read 7 tweets
Oct 10, 2025
The main strategy I have been running this year is to focus on a few miners that got very high FCF vs. Mcap, LOM extension potential and growth potential. Sooner or later the market wake up to high FCF vs. Mcap, high FCF give money for exploration / growth and news flow increase.
I heard all arguments on low LOM, bad assets, bad Management etc. But FCF rules together with right assets and technical teams. As an anecdote $vle.to CEO had very bad reputation before the Thai acquisitions and many Investors missed out despite seeing good Cash flows, assets etc
By looking at high FCF vs. Mcap rather than high NAV vs. Mcap you get better risk/reward. Since I estimate the probabilty of success to be much higher for a company that got strong FCF vs. having a poor Cash Flow or zero Cash Flow to bring the companies assets forward.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 14, 2022
Kör en tråd om fastighetsaktier. Vad många småsparare verkar missa är betydelsen av kapitalstruktur, soliditet och finansieringskostnad. The basics är att ett fastighetsbolag äger fastigheter som ger en yield som finansieras med en kombination av eget kapital och lån. 1(6)
Fastigheterna värderas sedan på balansräkningar enligt gängse värderingsprinciper (avkastningskrav etc.) När räntan (avkastningskravet) sjunkit har fastigheterna värderats upp och när räntan nu vänder upp väntas troligtvis nedskrivningar. Det är inget fixt värde. 2(6)
När fastigheterna ständigt värderades upp kunde fastighetsbolagen använda värdeökningen (förbättrade soliditeten) till att förvärva nya fastigheter genom att ta upp mer skulder. Så länge som finansieringskostnaden var mkt lägre än fastigheternas yield så ökade vinsten. 3(6)
Read 6 tweets
May 2, 2022
Valeura Energy $VEl #VLU is a deep value case that is likely to re-rate. Before the recent acquisition $VLE had cash on hand 40m$ which is equivalent of 0.58CAD/share and a huge deep tight gas asset in Turkey. In this thread I will explain why I am buying $VLE shares. Image
Here is an overview of the transaction. $VLE acquire Thai oil asset from bankrupt KrisEnergy for $3.1m initial payment. The Wassana oilfield is expected to produce 3000 bopd after reactivation, field was shut-in during 2020 oil-crash. After reactivation 9m$ quarterly CF expected. Image
The Tax losses are the key for the transaction which make $VEL keep ~62% of profit. Assuming 100$ oil sell price -> 62$ CF. 2P case 4m barrels. Acquisition and Capex cost: 3+2+9.2+30m for 5 infill wells -> 11$/barrel. So we look 50$ net profit per barrel. 4m barrels -> 200m$ Image
Read 9 tweets

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