Henrik Profile picture
May 7, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
PetroTal is currently preparing to drill well 11H in early May with a late June or early July completion. Next to 8H well that had initial flow of 8500bopd. At 60-65$ netback 10H can have pay-back time of ~30days. #PTAL $TAL.V
Minem reaches agreements on station 5 with indigenous organizations in Loreto. Important step to get ONP back online, that can enable Petrotal to produce 20-25k bopd and receive the true-up payments. #PTAL $TAL.V andina.pe/agencia/notici…
Once Petrotal hit the upper right corner in the Matrix here, cash build will be extremely fast. We are talking possible above 70m$ FCF per quarter. FCF/Mcap is just ridiculous. #PTAL $TAL.V
Despite all production issues Petrotal delivers growth and there is a lot of drilling and production growth ahead. Look at 3P production graph below. #PTAL $TAL.V
Another great Petrotal graph on 3P production and Cash-flow. Still early days, Bretana is beast. #PTAL $TAL.V
Need some patience but I think 2022 guidance is still on track. Buybacks/Dividends planned form Q4-22 , might be a few months delayed but will come. #PTAL $TAL.V
Look at the netbacks at 100$ oil. Now oil is 113$ and Petrotal expanded the Brazil route. Netbacks for Brazil might actually be around 70-75$ at the moment. Thereby Petrotal are catching up again towards guidance after some disturbance in Q1. #PTAL $TAL.V

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More from @Henrik115

Jun 14, 2022
Kör en tråd om fastighetsaktier. Vad många småsparare verkar missa är betydelsen av kapitalstruktur, soliditet och finansieringskostnad. The basics är att ett fastighetsbolag äger fastigheter som ger en yield som finansieras med en kombination av eget kapital och lån. 1(6)
Fastigheterna värderas sedan på balansräkningar enligt gängse värderingsprinciper (avkastningskrav etc.) När räntan (avkastningskravet) sjunkit har fastigheterna värderats upp och när räntan nu vänder upp väntas troligtvis nedskrivningar. Det är inget fixt värde. 2(6)
När fastigheterna ständigt värderades upp kunde fastighetsbolagen använda värdeökningen (förbättrade soliditeten) till att förvärva nya fastigheter genom att ta upp mer skulder. Så länge som finansieringskostnaden var mkt lägre än fastigheternas yield så ökade vinsten. 3(6)
Read 6 tweets
May 2, 2022
Valeura Energy $VEl #VLU is a deep value case that is likely to re-rate. Before the recent acquisition $VLE had cash on hand 40m$ which is equivalent of 0.58CAD/share and a huge deep tight gas asset in Turkey. In this thread I will explain why I am buying $VLE shares. Image
Here is an overview of the transaction. $VLE acquire Thai oil asset from bankrupt KrisEnergy for $3.1m initial payment. The Wassana oilfield is expected to produce 3000 bopd after reactivation, field was shut-in during 2020 oil-crash. After reactivation 9m$ quarterly CF expected. Image
The Tax losses are the key for the transaction which make $VEL keep ~62% of profit. Assuming 100$ oil sell price -> 62$ CF. 2P case 4m barrels. Acquisition and Capex cost: 3+2+9.2+30m for 5 infill wells -> 11$/barrel. So we look 50$ net profit per barrel. 4m barrels -> 200m$ Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 2, 2022
I have been buying some MaHa Energy lately. After TIE-4 it looks likely MaHa will reach plateau production on TIE 5k bopd for many years. TIE field got high netbacks (>50$ atm), that gives >90m$ operational CF. Add some production from US and Tartaruga and it gets better. (1/4)
The stronger production from TIE and high oil price will in my view get MaHa 2022 results to outperform previous years results by 200-300% and trade EV/EBITDA<2. Oman field will also enable future growth and MaHa could reach 10k bopd in 2023/2024. (2/4)
Maha Energy share price have performed very poorly in last 1.5 years compared to other oil companies. This is in my view driven by that the company did not previously deliver on the production growth and that investor expectations were too high (over-valued). (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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