Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PTAL

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PetroTal #PTAL $TAL.V
While the company continues to grow its cash and profits, shareholders have seen their shares remain flat.

Within the next few months that could change and we may see the shares re-rated much higher. Let me explain./1
At the end of September PetroTal had $93 million cash on hand. With the news this week that Petroperu is to receive $1 billion++ US in funds, their ability to shortly pay the $64 million noted by PetroTal increases significantly./2

These two numbers total $157 million and are important to the repayment of the bonds. The CFO has stated that they want to maintain $75 million cash on hand (Aug 26 cc), and the bonds are $80 million. Any future cash flows (as of Q4) can then be used for dividends and buybacks./3
Read 11 tweets
6 reasons to buy $TAL.v now.


Record quarterly production in Q2 (as already reported by Peruvian government) and record revenue due to strong Brent prices.

Restoration of the ONP pipeline this quarter will allow production to flow unrestricted.

Latest horizontal well on production early Q3.

Net cash position with plans to pay off the bond this quarter. With bond restrictions removed, the company will begin to return cash to shareholders from Q4.

Sea change in perceived country risk when Peruvian President Castillo is shown the door. Castillo has been kicked out of his own party and is facing corruption charges. The next president will almost certainly be from the pro-resource establishment.

Read 4 tweets
I am very long PetroTal #PTAL $tal.v after buying dips for past few months. The stock looks far too cheap to me. They are guiding production growth at 100% Y-o-Y rate, while guiding >50% FCF yield at that growth rate and debt is only 20% of market cap.
This is made possible with very productive wells at reasonable cost giving 4 week payback times. For example the latest 10H well came on online with 10,050 bopd 10 day initial production rate at $11.5m cost and with netbacks being about $65/bbl currently:…
The reserves at their Bretana asset have been growing steadily year after year as they prove the reservoir approximately doubling from 2018 estimates. The 2P NPV-10 of $1 billion alone gives 100% equity upside at conservative oil prices and at a conservative 22% recovery factor.
Read 11 tweets
PetroTal is currently preparing to drill well 11H in early May with a late June or early July completion. Next to 8H well that had initial flow of 8500bopd. At 60-65$ netback 10H can have pay-back time of ~30days. #PTAL $TAL.V
Minem reaches agreements on station 5 with indigenous organizations in Loreto. Important step to get ONP back online, that can enable Petrotal to produce 20-25k bopd and receive the true-up payments. #PTAL $TAL.V…
Once Petrotal hit the upper right corner in the Matrix here, cash build will be extremely fast. We are talking possible above 70m$ FCF per quarter. FCF/Mcap is just ridiculous. #PTAL $TAL.V
Read 7 tweets

I've been a bit busy with work so haven't had time to tweet in a while. However, since Petrotal is having social issues limiting their production I thought I'd share some insights and dividend calculations


February was an ATH month outdoing previous 12 month avg production with over 100%.

A calculated EBITDA shows +36,6 MUSD generated over 28 days!

R12 production growth is 11,4% and a calculated 12 month production based on the February run rate...

shows that Petrotal would produce over 7,7 million barrels if they kept the pace going.

Number of zero-days was only one and the 20+ days were a record high 13 with some real standouts.

Share price increased and brent oil reached around $105.
Read 19 tweets
$panr $pthrf

Thanks for the kind DM’s. 🙏
If you only read one thread of mine and follow the link on $panr this is it! 👇

Most of the credit rightly goes to AlaskaGeophiz. It’s been a pleasure to walk through this thesis with him.…

It deserves more than a glancing read. The implications of the study allow for significant uplift in potential oil rates

The Tarn analogous data shows that at any porosity we might encounter at TW can have a wide distribution impact on perms over 3 log scales. The implication is that as the reservoir is developed the sweet spot (course sand) will be hit giving potential of
Read 7 tweets
I don't think my portfolio has ever been in better shape. Not enough cash to buy as much as I would like to as I can't think of selling anything. It is a unusual feeling and not normal at all but these 6 cash printing machines have a long way to go #JSE #THS #SQZ #TRIN #PTAL #PDL
#JSE watch out for the wildcard i.e. Maari. Not factored into the valuation at all. New NZ legislation has increased the likelihood of completion this year(few months imo). That wld bring $80m+ net cash and another 3.5k bopd. This should increase valuation by at least $160m (30%)
#THS market totally missed the 26% acquisition of minority interest for the issue of c10.5m($26m) new shares. Share of profits due to NCI last year alone was c$31m ($38m OCI). Calculate how much ths wld be for another 17 years open pit and 40 yrs underground. Excellent value imo.
Read 7 tweets
Here is a brief summary for the PetroTal community that we did in April 2021. DM or email for full version.

#TAL #PTAL Image
2/ Message Image
3/ Production profile from our proprietary well by well model Image
Read 9 tweets

With only a couple of days left in 2021, I decided to write a “year-in-review” on Petrotal. 2021 brought some great highlights, some of the usual, but as always: The company grew stronger and are now in a great position…

to take advantage of the bullish oil market we have ahead of us. Record high production numbers ahead of plan, unparalleled drill results and much more to come
This is what happened in 2021 and why #PTAL is our best bet going forward:

The election of Pedro Castillo caused some stir among investors. But with ~6 months since his installation: Little has been achieved (1).
Tax hikes, nationalisation, etc, all turned down by a centre/right majority. As expected, and to be continued (2)
Read 25 tweets
1/X | In this thread I will go through Petrotal – in my opinion – the best investment opportunity in the Oil industry. I will – in short – go through the positives (AND THERE ARE MANY), and the negatives.
2/X | The 8H well – coming online any day – will boost production to ~13 000/14 000 bopd. And before year end we will see Petrotal producing somewhere around 18 000 bopd. During 2022 production at the Bretana field will continue increasing towards the 25 000 bopd target
3/X |The math is easy. With oil at ~$75 and a breakeven at ~$27, Petrotal is generating a fantastic profit. If you compare their cash flow to their peers, with regards to market cap, Petrotal is an outstanding investment opportunity.
Read 21 tweets
On #PTAL #TAL: Today, company announced pilot sales to Atlantic through Amazonian river of Peru and Brazil. While a small first step, let me explain the strategic context 1/
Base case, PetroTal exports Bretana oil through the Peruvian pipeline system, owned and operated by PetroPeru. System is modern and has a ample capacity...2/
Including barging to ship oil to so called pump station 1, we assume all-in transportation cost of around $13/bbl for all our intrinsic modelling work. This is slightly higher than mgmt guidance. 3/
Read 8 tweets
On #PTAL: Those of u who follow the reported numbers at Perupetro Website (see below) to draw conclusions on PAL’s production, be mindful as u CANNOT cross read from reported numbers into actual production (or even worse, decline rates). Here is why:
Perupetro fiscalizes CRUDE oil for royalty calculations. TAL sell to Petroperu diluted oil with ~4% of natural gasoline. Sometimes Perupetro fails to report or, as TAL fiscaliza several times/day, fails to submit all reports; Hence e.g. 2 x 5k followed by 20k barrels.
In addition, there can & will be operational hiccups that are not production related which affect reported sales numbers. For instance, TAL had an issue at the pump station 10 days ago that forced them to slow production, which is why it averages only 10k bopd in Feb.
Read 5 tweets
On PetroTal: We promised to share our work on #PTAL, the CAD based small-cap E&P with an onshore oil field in Peru which currently produces 9,000 bpd and is about to double that in 2020. Here is a brief summary in a thread. For the full presentation, send me an email. #PTAL #TAL
Spin Off: In 2017, Sterling, a listed company with $41m cash but no assets, and PetroTal, a company with a credible mgmt but no assets or listing, merged and entered into a agreement with Gran Tierra to buy its Peruvian assets in exchange for issuing shares to Gran Tierra. #GTE
Production: PetroTal produces 9,000 medium-heavy bpd from the Bretaña, a conventional sandstone reservoir in which it holds 100% working interest and which it operates. The field holds 39.8 Mmbbl of Proved and Probable Reserves (2P) net to PetroTal.
Read 21 tweets
Some excellent moves in the PF this week:

ST trades in each of #TRX and #XSG reduced, as they had increased so quickly (~150% and 66% respectively). Balances of positions to be held until ~2p for each stock, but will revise accordingly, keeping a close eye on momentum. 1/12
Two new modest ST trades opened yesterday PM, 200k shares in each: #CIR and #C4XD (both ~17.5p av. entry). Primarily capitalising on community's (and my) recent success in trading up Woodford/Invesco calamities (TRX and XSG!). Both now enjoy solid fundamentals - valuations...2/12
...much more attractive now, with both #CIR and #C4XD SPs having been decimated this year. Moreover, they now enjoy the backing of retail. Fundamentals combined with sentiment = crucial.

ST trade (but happy to hold as a LT investment) opened in #DKL too. Very cheap CPO biz..3/12
Read 12 tweets

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